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Forecast1 / 3

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

Robert Lewandowski and Chicago Fire host New England Revolution on Matchday 25 in a fixture the model leans toward Chicago at home, though a draw remains the second-most likely outcome.

Chicago Fire 40%Draw 28%New England Revolution 32%

Pick 1-1.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Chicago Fire show a pattern of draws (W-D-D-D-D in last 5); New England are more volatile with three wins, a draw, and a loss in their last five.
Venue, travel and rest
Chicago Fire's home advantage at Soldier Field is factored into the 40% win probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 3 meetings against New England Revolution, with 1 draw and no losses.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.39 for Chicago Fire and 1.22 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for Chicago Fire, 32 for New England Revolution and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Chicago Fire win band is held at 22 to 60.

2.4k184

Forecast1 / 3

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin

Thomas Muller and Vancouver Whitecaps host Austin in a matchday 25 clash where the model leans toward a home win, though a draw remains genuinely likely.

Vancouver Whitecaps 43%Draw 28%Austin 29%

Pick 1-1.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Vancouver won three of their last five but lost to Houston and St. Louis. Austin drew three of five, beat Seattle and Portland.
Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage at BC Place is factored into Vancouver's higher win probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Vancouver won 2 of the last 3 meetings against Austin, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.17 for Austin. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Vancouver Whitecaps, 29 for Austin and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Vancouver Whitecaps win band is held at 24 to 63.

2.4k184

Forecast1 / 3

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Mon 14 Sep

San Diego vs Philadelphia Union

San Diego host Philadelphia Union on Matchday 25 with the forecast calling a tight contest that favors the visitors despite home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium.

San Diego 23%Draw 27%Philadelphia Union 50%

Pick 1-1.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
San Diego show inconsistency with two wins offset by three losses; Philadelphia have won three of five with two draws, displaying better overall stability.
Venue, travel and rest
San Diego's home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium is reflected in the model but does not overcome Philadelphia's underlying quality edge.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.02 for San Diego and 1.63 for Philadelphia Union. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 23 for San Diego, 50 for Philadelphia Union and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.32 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Diego win band is held at 9 to 42.

2.4k184

Match1 / 4

ATP · Sun 13 SepUS Open 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton

Alexander Zverev 57%Ben Shelton 43%

Alexander Zverev favoured at 57%

The read

Alexander Zverev 57%Ben Shelton 43%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 57 percent against Ben Shelton, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 6 odds snapshots.

Alexander Zverev win probability across 6 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at US Open

Ben Shelton at US Open

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

San Jose Earthquakes host Houston Dynamo in a tight Matchday 25 clash where the model sees a draw as the most likely outcome, though both sides have genuine chances to win.

San Jose Earthquakes 35%Draw 28%Houston Dynamo 37%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
San Jose show inconsistency with back-to-back losses followed by draws and a win; Houston have steadied with wins around a loss and consecutive draws.
Venue, travel and rest
San Jose's home ground at PayPal Park provides standard home advantage already reflected in the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Split honours across four recent meetings, one win each with two draws, suggests evenly matched sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.29 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.32 for Houston Dynamo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 35 for San Jose Earthquakes, 37 for Houston Dynamo and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Jose Earthquakes win band is held at 18 to 55.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

San Jose Earthquakes 1 Houston Dynamo 0 at full time. Goals: Daniel Munie 38 for San Jose Earthquakes.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders

Los Angeles Galaxy host Seattle Sounders on Matchday 25 with the hosts favored despite recent inconsistency on both sides. Our model leans toward a Galaxy win, though a draw remains a genuine possibility.

Los Angeles Galaxy 41%Draw 28%Seattle Sounders 31%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Los Angeles Galaxy show 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in recent matches. Seattle Sounders show 3 draws, 2 losses with no recent wins.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Galaxy play at home, a standard advantage factored into the model's forecasting.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
In their last 4 meetings, Galaxy won 1, Sounders won 2, and 1 was drawn.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.19 for Seattle Sounders. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Los Angeles Galaxy, 31 for Seattle Sounders and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles Galaxy win band is held at 23 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles Galaxy 1 Seattle Sounders 1 at full time. Goals: Marco Reus 44 for Los Angeles Galaxy penalty, Paul Arriola 81 for Seattle Sounders.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC

Real Salt Lake host New York City FC on Matchday 25 with both sides struggling for consistency. Our model expects a stalemate in Sandy.

Real Salt Lake 32%Draw 28%New York City FC 40%

Called 1-1. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Real Salt Lake have won zero of five; NYCFC have won zero of five. Both teams drawn three times in that span, suggesting defensive solidity but attacking shortage.
Venue, travel and rest
Salt Lake play at home, which provides standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
NYCFC won one of four recent meetings versus none for Salt Lake, with three draws, slightly favoring the visitors.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.22 for Real Salt Lake and 1.39 for New York City FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for Real Salt Lake, 40 for New York City FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Real Salt Lake win band is held at 16 to 52.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Real Salt Lake 0 New York City FC 2 at full time. Goals: Nicolás Fernández Mercau 41 for New York City FC, Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos 61 for New York City FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal

Colorado Rapids host CF Montreal at Dick's Sporting Goods Park on Matchday 25, with the Rapids favored but this one likely headed for a draw.

Colorado Rapids 50%Draw 27%CF Montreal 23%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Colorado won 1-0 twice but lost 0-3 twice; Montreal won once in five with a 1-7 loss to Inter Miami.
Venue, travel and rest
Colorado play at home, a standard advantage already factored into the forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Colorado won 2 of the last 3 meetings against Montreal.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.62 for Colorado Rapids and 1.02 for CF Montreal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for Colorado Rapids, 23 for CF Montreal and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Colorado Rapids win band is held at 30 to 70.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Colorado Rapids 1 CF Montreal 0 at full time. Goals: Paxten Aaronson 43 for Colorado Rapids penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC

St. Louis City host Minnesota United FC on Matchday 25 at CITYPARK, with our model predicting a draw despite the hosts' home advantage.

St. Louis City 48%Draw 27%Minnesota United FC 25%

Called 1-1. Final 4-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
St. Louis have won 2 of 5 recent matches with 3 draws; Minnesota have won 1 of 5 with 3 losses, suggesting St. Louis in better current form.
Venue, travel and rest
St. Louis City's home advantage at CITYPARK is reflected in the model's 48 percent win probability for the hosts.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Minnesota United FC have won three consecutive matches against St. Louis City across their last three meetings, a notable pattern favoring the visitors.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.57 for St. Louis City and 1.07 for Minnesota United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 48 for St. Louis City, 25 for Minnesota United FC and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the St. Louis City win band is held at 28 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

4-2Missed · we picked 1-1

St. Louis City 4 Minnesota United FC 2 at full time. Goals: Tomás Chancalay 5 for Minnesota United FC, Daniel Edelman 18 for St. Louis City, Carlo Holse 22 for St. Louis City, Rafael Navarro Leal 38 for St. Louis City, Rafael Navarro Leal 57 for St. Louis City penalty, Kelvin Yeboah 61 for Minnesota United FC penalty. Kyle Duncan of Minnesota United FC sent off 80.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC

Son Heung-min and Los Angeles FC visit Sporting Kansas City on Matchday 25, and the model leans heavily toward the visitors despite a tight predicted scoreline.

Sporting Kansas City 19%Draw 26%Los Angeles FC 55%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Sporting Kansas City have won zero of their last five, losing four. Los Angeles FC have one win in their last five but two draws and have been more stable.
Venue, travel and rest
Sporting Kansas City's home advantage at Children's Mercy Park is priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Los Angeles FC won all four of the last four meetings between these teams.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.93 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.73 for Los Angeles FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 19 for Sporting Kansas City, 55 for Los Angeles FC and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Sporting Kansas City win band is held at 7 to 36.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Sporting Kansas City 3 Los Angeles FC 1 at full time. Goals: André Luiz 18 for Sporting Kansas City, Taylor Calheira 31 for Sporting Kansas City, Denis Bouanga 47 for Los Angeles FC, Jacob Bartlett 71 for Sporting Kansas City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sun 13 Sep

FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

FC Dallas and Portland Timbers meet at Toyota Stadium on Matchday 25 in a fixture the model leans toward the hosts, though a draw remains a genuine possibility.

FC Dallas 46%Draw 28%Portland Timbers 26%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
FC Dallas won 2 of 5, lost 1, drew 1; Portland won 2 of 5, lost 1, drew 2 in tracked results.
Venue, travel and rest
FC Dallas play at home at Toyota Stadium, a standard home advantage priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
FC Dallas won 1, Portland Timbers won 0, with 3 draws across the last 4 meetings.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.53 for FC Dallas and 1.10 for Portland Timbers. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for FC Dallas, 26 for Portland Timbers and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the FC Dallas win band is held at 27 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

FC Dallas 2 Portland Timbers 1 at full time. Goals: Logan Farrington 45 for FC Dallas, Joaquín Valiente Cioli 87 for FC Dallas, Ariel Lassiter 90+3 for Portland Timbers.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sat 12 Sep

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

Orlando City SC host Toronto FC on Matchday 25 of MLS 2026, with our model backing the home side but only just.

Orlando City SC 43%Draw 28%Toronto FC 29%

Called 1-1. Final 3-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Orlando won three of five most recently; Toronto drew three of four with less attacking punch shown overall.
Venue, travel and rest
Home ground factored in as standard advantage for Orlando City.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Orlando's 2-1 record in the last three head-to-head meetings provides mild historical backing for the hosts.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.47 for Orlando City SC and 1.15 for Toronto FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Orlando City SC, 29 for Toronto FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Orlando City SC win band is held at 24 to 63.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sat 12 Sep

Inter Miami vs Nashville SC

Inter Miami host Nashville SC at Nu Stadium with Lionel Messi leading the charge, but our model sees this Matchday 25 clash ending in a stalemate.

Inter Miami 36%Draw 28%Nashville SC 36%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Inter Miami show inconsistency with 2 draws, 1 win, 1 loss in their last 5; Nashville are in better form with 3 wins and 1 loss in their last 5.
Venue, travel and rest
Inter Miami's home at Nu Stadium provides standard home advantage, priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Head to head over 4 recent meetings shows even split: 1 win each, 2 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.31 for Inter Miami and 1.29 for Nashville SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 36 for Inter Miami, 36 for Nashville SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Inter Miami win band is held at 19 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Inter Miami 2 Nashville SC 2 at full time. Goals: Sam Surridge 4 for Nashville SC, Reed Baker-Whiting 19 for Inter Miami own goal, Lionel Messi 62 for Inter Miami, Sam Surridge 90+1 for Nashville SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sat 12 Sep

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

Charlotte arrives at TQL Stadium as favourites against FC Cincinnati on Matchday 25, with the visiting side given a 53% chance to take the points despite playing away from home.

FC Cincinnati 21%Draw 26%Charlotte 53%

Called 1-1. Final 3-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Cincinnati have drawn twice and lost twice in their last five; Charlotte have won three of five with two draws, showing a clearer upward trajectory.
Venue, travel and rest
Cincinnati's home advantage at TQL Stadium is priced into the model but has not reversed the underlying Charlotte favour.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Charlotte lead the head-to-head record 3-1-0 across the last four encounters, giving them historical confidence in this fixture.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.96 for FC Cincinnati and 1.69 for Charlotte. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 21 for FC Cincinnati, 53 for Charlotte and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the FC Cincinnati win band is held at 8 to 38.

2.4k184

What happened

3-3Right call · we picked 1-1

FC Cincinnati 3 Charlotte 3 at full time. Goals: Pavel Bucha 2 for FC Cincinnati, Liel Abada 7 for Charlotte, Pep Biel 17 for Charlotte penalty, Kevin Denkey 51 for FC Cincinnati, Idan Toklomati Jorno 55 for Charlotte, Kevin Denkey 90+1 for FC Cincinnati.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sat 12 Sep

DC United vs Atlanta United FC

DC United host Atlanta United FC at Audi Field with the model leaning toward the hosts despite a wobbling recent run. A 1-1 draw is the single most likely outcome in this matchday 25 clash.

DC United 41%Draw 28%Atlanta United FC 31%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
DC United: one win, two draws, two losses in last five. Atlanta: two wins, two losses, one draw in last five.
Venue, travel and rest
DC United at home; standard home advantage factored into model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last four meetings all ended drawn (0-0, 2-2, 1-1 results or similar split pattern).

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.41 for DC United and 1.21 for Atlanta United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for DC United, 31 for Atlanta United FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the DC United win band is held at 22 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

DC United 0 Atlanta United FC 0 at full time.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 25Sat 12 Sep

Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

Columbus Crew host New York Red Bulls on Matchday 25 with both sides in patchy form. The model leans slightly toward the hosts but sees a draw as a live possibility.

Columbus Crew 41%Draw 28%New York Red Bulls 31%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Columbus 1W-4L in last five; New York 0W-2D-3L in last five.
Venue, travel and rest
Columbus play at home; standard home advantage factored in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Last three meetings: one win each, one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.41 for Columbus Crew and 1.21 for New York Red Bulls. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Columbus Crew, 31 for New York Red Bulls and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Columbus Crew win band is held at 22 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Same day at US Open, 10 Sep

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Thu 10 SepUS Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

Aryna Sabalenka 63%Jessica Pegula 37%

Aryna Sabalenka won. 7-5, 6-2

The read

Aryna Sabalenka 63%Jessica Pegula 37%

Aryna Sabalenka is favoured at 63 percent against Jessica Pegula, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 8 odds snapshots.

Aryna Sabalenka win probability across 8 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Aryna Sabalenka at US Open

Jessica Pegula at US Open

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Thomas Muller and Vancouver Whitecaps host Los Angeles Galaxy in a tight Matchday 24 clash that the model leans toward the home side, though a draw remains very much in play.

Vancouver Whitecaps 39%Draw 28%Los Angeles Galaxy 33%

Called 1-1. Final 3-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Vancouver won three of their last five, including a 5-0 thumping of Dallas. Los Angeles have alternated results with two losses in five games.
Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage at BC Place is factored into the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Los Angeles hold a 2-1 edge in wins across their last four encounters, with one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.37 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.24 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 39 for Vancouver Whitecaps, 33 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Vancouver Whitecaps win band is held at 21 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Vancouver Whitecaps 3 Los Angeles Galaxy 0 at full time. Goals: Brian White 8 for Vancouver Whitecaps, Ryan Gauld 57 for Vancouver Whitecaps, Bruno Caicedo 90 for Vancouver Whitecaps penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

San Diego host San Jose Earthquakes in a matchday 24 clash where the hosts are favoured but far from certain. The model sees this as a tight contest with a draw the likely outcome.

San Diego 50%Draw 27%San Jose Earthquakes 23%

Called 1-1. Final 2-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
San Diego won three of their last five; San Jose lost three of their last five with particularly heavy defeats.
Venue, travel and rest
San Diego's home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium is factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The teams have split their last four meetings evenly, two wins each with no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.62 for San Diego and 1.02 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for San Diego, 23 for San Jose Earthquakes and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Diego win band is held at 30 to 70.

2.4k184

What happened

2-3Missed · we picked 1-1

San Diego 2 San Jose Earthquakes 3 at full time. Goals: N.Tsakiris 3 for San Jose Earthquakes, Preston Judd 12 for San Jose Earthquakes, Ousseni Bouda 35 for San Jose Earthquakes, Anders Dreyer 42 for San Diego, Cédric Bakambu 90+4 for San Diego penalty. Carlos Joaquim dos Santos of San Diego sent off 80. Max Floriani of San Jose Earthquakes sent off 90+2.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City

Portland Timbers host St. Louis City on Matchday 24 in a fixture where the visitors edge the hosts in the model's prediction despite playing away from Providence Park.

Portland Timbers 31%Draw 28%St. Louis City 41%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
St. Louis City won three of their last five matches and drew two; Portland won two of their last five but lost two as well.
Venue, travel and rest
Providence Park provides Portland a standard home advantage already factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 2)
The teams split their last two meetings with one win each and no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.20 for Portland Timbers and 1.42 for St. Louis City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for Portland Timbers, 41 for St. Louis City and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portland Timbers win band is held at 15 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Portland Timbers 2 St. Louis City 2 at full time. Goals: Rafael Navarro Leal 1 for St. Louis City, Kristoffer Velde 32 for Portland Timbers, Rafael Navarro Leal 51 for St. Louis City, Kristoffer Velde 89 for Portland Timbers.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls

Son Heung-min and Los Angeles FC host New York Red Bulls on Matchday 24, and our model leans toward the home side despite both teams showing fragile form.

Los Angeles FC 45%Draw 28%New York Red Bulls 27%

Called 1-1. Final 2-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Los Angeles FC have two losses and three draws in five games; New York Red Bulls have four losses and one draw.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles FC play at home, a standard advantage priced into the forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Los Angeles FC won 2 of the last 4 meetings between the teams, with New York winning 1 and 1 drawn.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.51 for Los Angeles FC and 1.12 for New York Red Bulls. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 45 for Los Angeles FC, 27 for New York Red Bulls and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles FC win band is held at 26 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles FC 2 New York Red Bulls 0 at full time. Goals: Jude Terry 21 for Los Angeles FC, Armindo Sieb 90+6 for Los Angeles FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas

Minnesota United FC host FC Dallas at Allianz Field in a Matchday 24 clash where the visitors are slight favorites despite playing away, with our model calling a draw.

Minnesota United FC 31%Draw 28%FC Dallas 41%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Minnesota show inconsistency with two draws and two losses against one win in their last five; Dallas have won three of five despite a heavy loss to Vancouver.
Venue, travel and rest
Minnesota's home advantage at Allianz Field is factored into the model's baseline probabilities.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Minnesota lead the head-to-head record across the last four meetings with two wins, one Dallas win, and one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.21 for Minnesota United FC and 1.41 for FC Dallas. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for Minnesota United FC, 41 for FC Dallas and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Minnesota United FC win band is held at 15 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Minnesota United FC 1 FC Dallas 2 at full time. Goals: Kaick da Silva Ferreira 62 for FC Dallas, Kelvin Yeboah 73 for Minnesota United FC, Santiago Moreno 84 for FC Dallas.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake

Houston Dynamo host Real Salt Lake on Matchday 24 as the model leans slightly toward the hosts, though this forecast carries real uncertainty.

Houston Dynamo 48%Draw 27%Real Salt Lake 25%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Houston won their last two matches 1-0; Real Salt Lake have one draw and four losses in their last five.
Venue, travel and rest
Houston play at home, a standard advantage the model factors in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Real Salt Lake have won 3 of 4 recent head-to-head meetings despite their current league form.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Houston Dynamo and 1.06 for Real Salt Lake. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 48 for Houston Dynamo, 25 for Real Salt Lake and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Houston Dynamo win band is held at 28 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Houston Dynamo 2 Real Salt Lake 1 at full time. Goals: Guilherme Augusto 57 for Houston Dynamo, Saba Lobjanidze 76 for Real Salt Lake, Mateusz Bogusz 87 for Houston Dynamo.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami

Robert Lewandowski and Chicago Fire host Lionel Messi's Inter Miami at Soldier Field on Matchday 24. The model leans toward a home win, but expects a tight match.

Chicago Fire 45%Draw 28%Inter Miami 27%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Chicago Fire have mixed results with two wins and three draws in their last five; Inter Miami have one win, two draws, and two losses.
Venue, travel and rest
Soldier Field provides Chicago Fire standard home advantage, already factored into the forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Chicago Fire won 1 of the last 4 meetings, Inter Miami won 2, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.50 for Chicago Fire and 1.13 for Inter Miami. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 45 for Chicago Fire, 27 for Inter Miami and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Chicago Fire win band is held at 25 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Chicago Fire 1 Inter Miami 1 at full time. Goals: Robert Lewandowski 10 for Chicago Fire, Carlos Henrique Casimiro 48 for Inter Miami.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

Austin vs Colorado Rapids

Austin host Colorado Rapids on Matchday 24 with the model calling a draw at Q2 Stadium. Both sides arrive in mixed form, setting up a tight contest in Texas.

Austin 43%Draw 28%Colorado Rapids 29%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Austin won 2 of their last 5 league games but also lost and drew twice. Colorado won 3 of 5 but suffered two heavy defeats.
Venue, travel and rest
Austin benefit from home advantage at Q2 Stadium, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Even split across last 4 meetings, 2-2 with no draws, suggesting neither side has clear dominance in this fixture.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Austin and 1.16 for Colorado Rapids. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Austin, 29 for Colorado Rapids and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Austin win band is held at 24 to 63.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Austin 1 Colorado Rapids 1 at full time. Goals: Paxten Aaronson 22 for Colorado Rapids, Facundo Daniel Torres Perez 79 for Austin.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Thu 10 Sep

New York City FC vs New England Revolution

New York City FC host New England Revolution at Yankee Stadium in a matchday 24 encounter where the model sees little to separate these sides, predicting a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome.

New York City FC 35%Draw 28%New England Revolution 37%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
New York City FC have won 1 of their last 5 (3 losses, 1 draw); New England Revolution have won 2 of their last 5 (2 losses, 1 draw).
Venue, travel and rest
New York City FC play at home; standard home advantage is priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Their last 4 meetings: New York City FC won 1, New England Revolution won 1, 2 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for New York City FC and 1.33 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 35 for New York City FC, 37 for New England Revolution and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 17 to 55.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

New York City FC 1 New England Revolution 2 at full time. Goals: Carles Gil 12 for New England Revolution penalty, Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos 71 for New York City FC, Dániel Gazdag 90+3 for New England Revolution.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Wed 9 Sep

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union host FC Cincinnati at Subaru Park on Matchday 24, and our model backs the home side to edge this one despite a genuinely tight contest.

Philadelphia Union 52%Draw 26%FC Cincinnati 22%

Called 1-1. Final 5-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Philadelphia have won three of five with two draws; Cincinnati won four of five but were hammered 0-4 by Nashville most recently.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia play at home, a standard advantage built into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Philadelphia have won two of the last three head-to-head meetings with Cincinnati winning once.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.65 for Philadelphia Union and 1.00 for FC Cincinnati. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for Philadelphia Union, 22 for FC Cincinnati and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Philadelphia Union win band is held at 31 to 71.

2.4k184

What happened

5-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Philadelphia Union 5 FC Cincinnati 0 at full time. Goals: Quinn Sullivan 43 for Philadelphia Union penalty, Bruno Damiani 45+1 for Philadelphia Union, Bruno Damiani 49 for Philadelphia Union, Bruno Damiani 61 for Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski 89 for Philadelphia Union penalty. Obinna Nwobodo of FC Cincinnati sent off 16.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Wed 9 Sep

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC

Toronto FC host Nashville SC in a matchday 24 clash where the visitors come in as slight favorites despite playing away, with our model predicting a 1-1 draw.

Toronto FC 27%Draw 28%Nashville SC 45%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Nashville SC are on a four-win run with prolific attacking output. Toronto FC show inconsistency with mixed results and defensive vulnerabilities.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto FC benefit from home advantage at BMO Field, a factor reflected in their 27 percent win probability despite being the underdog on underlying metrics.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Nashville SC have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning all three of the last meetings between these sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.12 for Toronto FC and 1.51 for Nashville SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 27 for Toronto FC, 45 for Nashville SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Toronto FC win band is held at 12 to 46.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Toronto FC 2 Nashville SC 1 at full time. Goals: Niklas Dorsch 3 for Nashville SC own goal, Dániel Sallói 72 for Toronto FC, Emilio Aristizábal 90+3 for Toronto FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Wed 9 Sep

DC United vs Columbus Crew

DC United and Columbus Crew meet at Audi Field in a matchday 24 stalemate: our model calls a 1-1 draw with both sides equally likely to steal all three points.

DC United 36%Draw 28%Columbus Crew 36%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
DC United draw regularly but cannot win; Columbus Crew have won once in five games
Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage at Audi Field is factored into the model's assessment
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Columbus Crew won 2 of the last 3 meetings between the sides

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.30 for DC United and 1.30 for Columbus Crew. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 36 for DC United, 36 for Columbus Crew and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the DC United win band is held at 18 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

DC United 2 Columbus Crew 1 at full time. Goals: Tai Baribo 24 for DC United, Tai Baribo 37 for DC United, Santiago Rodriguez 49 for Columbus Crew.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Wed 9 Sep

CF Montreal vs Charlotte

Charlotte arrive at Saputo Stadium as favorites against CF Montreal on Matchday 24, with the model backing the visitors despite Montreal's home advantage.

CF Montreal 23%Draw 27%Charlotte 50%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Montreal won 1 of 5 recent matches; Charlotte won 3 of 5 with four consecutive games unbeaten before this fixture.
Venue, travel and rest
Montreal play at home, a standard advantage reflected in the model's pricing.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Montreal 1 win, Charlotte 2 wins across the last 3 meetings.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.04 for CF Montreal and 1.60 for Charlotte. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 23 for CF Montreal, 50 for Charlotte and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the CF Montreal win band is held at 10 to 42.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

CF Montreal 1 Charlotte 2 at full time. Goals: Daniel Rios 34 for CF Montreal, Liel Abada 37 for Charlotte, Idan Toklomati Jorno 81 for Charlotte.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24Wed 9 Sep

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC

Atlanta United FC host Orlando City SC on Matchday 24 in a tight contest where the model sees a draw as likely as either team winning.

Atlanta United FC 37%Draw 29%Orlando City SC 34%

Called 1-1. Final 2-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Atlanta won three straight 2-1 before a 0-2 loss and 2-2 draw; Orlando mixed, with two draws, two wins, and one loss across their last five.
Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta play at home at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last four meetings: Atlanta 1 win, Orlando 2 wins, 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.33 for Atlanta United FC and 1.27 for Orlando City SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 37 for Atlanta United FC, 34 for Orlando City SC and 29 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Atlanta United FC win band is held at 20 to 57.

2.4k184

What happened

2-3Missed · we picked 1-1

Atlanta United FC 2 Orlando City SC 3 at full time. Goals: David Brekalo 7 for Atlanta United FC own goal, Antoine Griezmann 26 for Orlando City SC, Iván Angulo 58 for Orlando City SC, Antoine Griezmann 77 for Orlando City SC, Tyrese Spicer 90+7 for Atlanta United FC own goal.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Wed 9 SepUS Open 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp

Alexander Zverev 86%Botic van de Zandschulp 14%

Alexander Zverev won. 6-2, 7-5, 6-1

The read

Alexander Zverev 86%Botic van de Zandschulp 14%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 86 percent against Botic van de Zandschulp, the median implied probability across 22 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Alexander Zverev win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 22 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at US Open

Same day at US Open, 8 Sep

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Wed 9 SepUS Open 2026

Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva

Coco Gauff 65%Mirra Andreeva 35%

Coco Gauff won. 2-6, 7-6, 6-2

The read

Coco Gauff 65%Mirra Andreeva 35%

Coco Gauff is favoured at 65 percent against Mirra Andreeva, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Coco Gauff win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Coco Gauff at US Open

Mirra Andreeva at US Open

Same day at US Open, 8 Sep

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Wed 9 SepUS Open 2026

Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng

Elena Rybakina 73%Qinwen Zheng 27%

Elena Rybakina won. 3-6, 6-1, 6-4

The read

Elena Rybakina 73%Qinwen Zheng 27%

Elena Rybakina is favoured at 73 percent against Qinwen Zheng, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Elena Rybakina win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Elena Rybakina at US Open

Same day at US Open, 8 Sep

More

Match1 / 4

ATP · Wed 9 SepUS Open 2026

Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

Ben Shelton 27%Carlos Alcaraz 73%

Ben Shelton won. 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6

The read

Ben Shelton 27%Carlos Alcaraz 73%

Carlos Alcaraz is favoured at 73 percent against Ben Shelton, the median implied probability across 20 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 9 odds snapshots.

Ben Shelton win probability across 9 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 20 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Ben Shelton at US Open

Carlos Alcaraz at US Open

Same day at US Open, 8 Sep

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 8 SepUS Open 2026

Emma Navarro vs Jessica Pegula

Emma Navarro 24%Jessica Pegula 76%

Jessica Pegula won. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3

The read

Emma Navarro 24%Jessica Pegula 76%

Jessica Pegula is favoured at 76 percent against Emma Navarro, the median implied probability across 20 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Emma Navarro win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 20 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jessica Pegula at US Open

Same day at US Open, 7 Sep

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 8 SepUS Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova

Aryna Sabalenka 71%Linda Noskova 29%

Aryna Sabalenka won. 7-6, 3-6, 7-6

The read

Aryna Sabalenka 71%Linda Noskova 29%

Aryna Sabalenka 81%Taylor Townsend 19%

Aryna Sabalenka is favoured at 81 percent against Taylor Townsend, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 6 odds snapshots.

Aryna Sabalenka win probability across 6 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Aryna Sabalenka at US Open

Same day at US Open, 5 Sep

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City

Vancouver Whitecaps host St. Louis City at BC Place on Matchday 23, with designated player Thomas Muller looking to lead the hosts to victory. The model calls a narrow edge to the Whitecaps despite genuine uncertainty.

Vancouver Whitecaps 45%Draw 28%St. Louis City 27%

Called 1-1. Final 1-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Vancouver mixed results with a heavy loss to Houston; St. Louis steady with no losses in last five matches
Venue, travel and rest
BC Place provides standard home advantage factored into the model
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Vancouver won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head meetings against St. Louis

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.51 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.12 for St. Louis City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 45 for Vancouver Whitecaps, 27 for St. Louis City and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Vancouver Whitecaps win band is held at 26 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

1-3Missed · we picked 1-1

Vancouver Whitecaps 1 St. Louis City 3 at full time. Goals: Emmanuel Sabbi 2 for Vancouver Whitecaps, Simon Becher 23 for St. Louis City, Tomas Totland 41 for St. Louis City, Conrad Wallem 45 for St. Louis City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

Portland Timbers host Minnesota United FC in a matchday 23 clash where form suggests a draw is likely, despite the hosts' home advantage.

Portland Timbers 37%Draw 28%Minnesota United FC 35%

Called 1-1. Final 5-4, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Portland won 2-1 and 3-1 in recent matches but also lost 1-2 twice. Minnesota drew three of their last five.
Venue, travel and rest
Portland's home ground at Providence Park provides a modest edge already factored into probabilities.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The teams are evenly matched historically, with 1 win, 1 loss, and 2 draws across their last four meetings.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.33 for Portland Timbers and 1.27 for Minnesota United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 37 for Portland Timbers, 35 for Minnesota United FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portland Timbers win band is held at 20 to 57.

2.4k184

What happened

5-4Missed · we picked 1-1

Portland Timbers 5 Minnesota United FC 4 at full time. Goals: Vincent Janssen 11 for Portland Timbers penalty, Drake Callender 20 for Portland Timbers own goal, Vincent Janssen 26 for Portland Timbers, Marcus Caldeira 32 for Minnesota United FC, Anthony Markanich 37 for Minnesota United FC, Marcus Caldeira 50 for Minnesota United FC, Vincent Janssen 55 for Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde 71 for Portland Timbers, Tomás Chancalay 90+2 for Minnesota United FC.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Sun 6 SepUS Open 2026

Alejandro Tabilo vs Alexander Zverev

Alejandro Tabilo 18%Alexander Zverev 82%

Alexander Zverev won. 6-2, 7-6, 6-2

The read

Alejandro Tabilo 18%Alexander Zverev 82%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 82 percent against Alejandro Tabilo, the median implied probability across 22 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 8 odds snapshots.

Alejandro Tabilo win probability across 8 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 22 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at US Open

Same day at US Open, 5 Sep

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC

Son Heung-min and Los Angeles FC arrive in Sandy as favorites against Real Salt Lake on Matchday 23. The model leans toward an LAFC win, though uncertainty is high and a draw remains firmly in play.

Real Salt Lake 29%Draw 28%Los Angeles FC 43%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Real Salt Lake winless in five matches, LAFC inconsistent with three draws but two recent 1-0 defeats.
Venue, travel and rest
Real Salt Lake play at home; standard home advantage included in model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
LAFC have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Real Salt Lake 0 wins and 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.17 for Real Salt Lake and 1.45 for Los Angeles FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 29 for Real Salt Lake, 43 for Los Angeles FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Real Salt Lake win band is held at 14 to 49.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Real Salt Lake 2 Los Angeles FC 2 at full time. Goals: Denis Bouanga 14 for Los Angeles FC, Saba Lobjanidze 18 for Real Salt Lake, Son Heung-min 38 for Los Angeles FC, Noel Caliskan 75 for Real Salt Lake.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution

Los Angeles Galaxy host New England Revolution on Matchday 23 with the model calling a draw as the likeliest outcome, though the visitors are slight favorites to steal three points.

Los Angeles Galaxy 33%Draw 28%New England Revolution 39%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Galaxy have lost two of five; New England have won two of three but suffered two defeats before the recent wins.
Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage for Galaxy is factored into the model but does not shift the probability meaningfully in their direction.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Even split across four recent meetings, two wins each, zero draws, suggesting no historical edge for either side.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.24 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.37 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 33 for Los Angeles Galaxy, 39 for New England Revolution and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles Galaxy win band is held at 16 to 53.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles Galaxy 2 New England Revolution 1 at full time. Goals: Marco Reus 11 for Los Angeles Galaxy penalty, Robert Taylor 33 for Los Angeles Galaxy, Carles Gil 90+6 for New England Revolution penalty.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Sun 6 SepUS Open 2026

Elena Rybakina vs Yuliia Starodubtseva

Elena Rybakina 81%Yuliia Starodubtseva 19%

Elena Rybakina won. 7-6, 6-3

The read

Elena Rybakina 81%Yuliia Starodubtseva 19%

Elena Rybakina is favoured at 81 percent against Yuliia Starodubtseva, the median implied probability across 17 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Elena Rybakina win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 17 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Elena Rybakina at US Open

Same day at US Open, 5 Sep

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls

Seattle Sounders host New York Red Bulls at Lumen Field in an MLS matchday 23 clash that our model expects to end level, though the Sounders' home advantage gives them a slight edge in the win race.

Seattle Sounders 43%Draw 28%New York Red Bulls 29%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Seattle have one draw in their last five games; New York have lost three of five with one win and one draw.
Venue, travel and rest
Seattle play at home, a standard advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Seattle won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams; New York won 1, with no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Seattle Sounders and 1.17 for New York Red Bulls. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Seattle Sounders, 29 for New York Red Bulls and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Seattle Sounders win band is held at 24 to 63.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

Seattle Sounders 0 New York Red Bulls 0 at full time.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City

FC Dallas welcome Sporting Kansas City to Frisco on Matchday 23, and the model backs the hosts to dominate in a 2-0 win.

FC Dallas 62%Draw 23%Sporting Kansas City 15%

Called 2-0. Final 4-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
FC Dallas won 2 of their last 5 matches and drew 2. Sporting Kansas City lost 4 of their last 5 with 1 draw.
Venue, travel and rest
FC Dallas play at home, a standard advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
FC Dallas won 3 of the last 3 meetings between the sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.88 for FC Dallas and 0.80 for Sporting Kansas City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 62 for FC Dallas, 15 for Sporting Kansas City and 23 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the FC Dallas win band is held at 42 to 80.

2.4k184

What happened

4-3Right call · we picked 2-0

FC Dallas 4 Sporting Kansas City 3 at full time. Goals: Taylor Calheira 4 for Sporting Kansas City, Stephen Afrifa 19 for Sporting Kansas City, Logan Farrington 27 for FC Dallas, Petar Musa 30 for FC Dallas, Kaick da Silva Ferreira 45 for FC Dallas, Taylor Calheira 78 for Sporting Kansas City, Petar Musa 90+7 for FC Dallas penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sun 6 Sep

Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes

Austin host San Jose Earthquakes on Matchday 23 with the model favouring the home side, but a draw remains a live possibility in a close contest.

Austin 53%Draw 26%San Jose Earthquakes 21%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Austin have won 2 of their last 5 (beating Seattle and Portland), while San Jose are winless in 5 with 4 losses and 1 draw.
Venue, travel and rest
Austin's home advantage at Q2 Stadium is built into the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
San Jose lead the recent head-to-head record 2-1 across the last 4 meetings, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.69 for Austin and 0.97 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for Austin, 21 for San Jose Earthquakes and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Austin win band is held at 33 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Austin 1 San Jose Earthquakes 1 at full time. Goals: Beau Leroux 8 for San Jose Earthquakes, Guilherme Biro 90+6 for Austin.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sat 5 Sep

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire

Robert Lewandowski arrives at BMO Field as Chicago Fire visit Toronto FC in a tight Matchday 23 contest, with our model seeing very little between these sides.

Toronto FC 35%Draw 28%Chicago Fire 37%

Called 1-1. Final 4-4, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Toronto alternating between wins and draws; Chicago on a three-win streak before two draws
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto's home ground at BMO Field included in model assessment
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Chicago ahead 2-0 in wins across the last four meetings, with two draws

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.28 for Toronto FC and 1.33 for Chicago Fire. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 35 for Toronto FC, 37 for Chicago Fire and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Toronto FC win band is held at 18 to 55.

2.4k184

What happened

4-4Right call · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sat 5 Sep

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

Philadelphia Union host CF Montreal at Subaru Park in a Matchday 23 clash where the model backs the home side to edge a tight contest.

Philadelphia Union 54%Draw 26%CF Montreal 20%

Called 1-1. Final 2-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Union have won three of their last five, with back-to-back 3-2 victories over Atlanta and NYCFC. Montreal show inconsistency, mixing three draws with a heavy 1-7 loss to Inter Miami.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia enjoy home advantage at Subaru Park, a factor baked into the model's forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Union have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against Montreal, establishing clear historical superiority in this fixture.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for Philadelphia Union and 0.96 for CF Montreal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for Philadelphia Union, 20 for CF Montreal and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Philadelphia Union win band is held at 33 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sat 5 Sep

Orlando City SC vs San Diego

Orlando City SC host San Diego on Matchday 23 in a tight contest where the visitors are favored despite playing away from home.

Orlando City SC 29%Draw 28%San Diego 43%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Orlando mixed results including losses to Red Bulls and Fire; San Diego on an upswing with wins over Galaxy and Colorado.
Venue, travel and rest
Orlando benefit from home status at Exploria Stadium, already factored into the forecast.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.17 for Orlando City SC and 1.45 for San Diego. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 29 for Orlando City SC, 43 for San Diego and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.32 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Orlando City SC win band is held at 13 to 50.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Orlando City SC 1 San Diego 0 at full time. Goals: Antoine Griezmann 28 for Orlando City SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sat 5 Sep

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC

Inter Miami host Atlanta United FC in a Matchday 23 encounter where Lionel Messi and company face a visiting side in strong recent form. Our model sees this as a toss-up, forecasting a 1-1 draw.

Inter Miami 36%Draw 28%Atlanta United FC 36%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Inter Miami show inconsistency with two losses flanking two draws, while Atlanta have won 3 of 5 recent games
Venue, travel and rest
Inter Miami benefit from playing at home in Fort Lauderdale
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Inter Miami lead the recent head-to-head record with 2 wins to Atlanta's 1 across the last 3 meetings

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.31 for Inter Miami and 1.29 for Atlanta United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 36 for Inter Miami, 36 for Atlanta United FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Inter Miami win band is held at 19 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Inter Miami 2 Atlanta United FC 2 at full time. Goals: Carlos Henrique Casimiro 32 for Inter Miami, Miguel Almirón 35 for Atlanta United FC, Luis Suárez 45+1 for Inter Miami, Breel Embolo 87 for Atlanta United FC penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sat 5 Sep

Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids

Colorado Rapids are favorites to take three points at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, but Columbus Crew's home advantage and head-to-head record suggest this Matchday 23 clash will be closer than the probabilities indicate.

Columbus Crew 20%Draw 26%Colorado Rapids 54%

Called 1-1. Final 3-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Columbus lost four of five; Colorado won four of five, including road victories over Sporting Kansas City and LAFC.
Venue, travel and rest
Columbus play at home, a standard advantage already factored into the model's calculations.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Columbus won 2 of the last 4 meetings between these teams, with 1 draw, suggesting the home side has competitive history here.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.95 for Columbus Crew and 1.71 for Colorado Rapids. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 20 for Columbus Crew, 54 for Colorado Rapids and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Columbus Crew win band is held at 8 to 37.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Columbus Crew 3 Colorado Rapids 0 at full time. Goals: Santiago Rodriguez 22 for Columbus Crew, Gonzalo Tapia 81 for Columbus Crew, Taha Habroune 90+4 for Columbus Crew.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Sat 5 Sep

Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo

Charlotte host Houston Dynamo on Matchday 23 with the hosts favored to take the points, though a draw remains a real possibility in what shapes as a tight encounter.

Charlotte 46%Draw 28%Houston Dynamo 26%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Charlotte alternating results with wins over Columbus and DC balanced by losses and draws; Houston on a better run with three wins in five including recent results vs New England, LA, and Vancouver.
Venue, travel and rest
Bank of America Stadium offers Charlotte a standard home advantage, already reflected in the 46-26 win probability gap.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Charlotte have won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head meetings against Houston Dynamo.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.53 for Charlotte and 1.10 for Houston Dynamo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for Charlotte, 26 for Houston Dynamo and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Charlotte win band is held at 27 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 23Fri 4 Sep

New York City FC vs Nashville SC

Nashville SC's hot streak collides with New York City FC's home advantage in a Matchday 23 clash the model leans toward the visitors.

New York City FC 22%Draw 26%Nashville SC 52%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Nashville have won four of five matches including a 4-1 demolition of Inter Miami; New York City FC have drawn two straight and won just once in five games.
Venue, travel and rest
New York City FC benefit from their home ground at Yankee Stadium, a factor priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Head to head across the last four meetings favors New York City FC with two wins, one Nashville victory, and one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.00 for New York City FC and 1.65 for Nashville SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 22 for New York City FC, 52 for Nashville SC and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 9 to 40.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

St. Louis City host FC Dallas at CITYPARK on Matchday 22, with the model calling a draw despite the hosts' slight edge in a game carrying genuine uncertainty.

St. Louis City 46%Draw 27%FC Dallas 27%

Called 1-1. Final 3-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
St. Louis mix two draws with two wins; Dallas mix two wins and one heavy loss with one draw, showing volatility in both camps.
Venue, travel and rest
CITYPARK provides St. Louis a standard home advantage, which the model accounts for in their higher win probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Split record over four games, one win each and two draws, offers no clear edge to either side historically.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.52 for St. Louis City and 1.11 for FC Dallas. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for St. Louis City, 27 for FC Dallas and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the St. Louis City win band is held at 26 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

3-3Right call · we picked 1-1

St. Louis City 3 FC Dallas 3 at full time. Goals: S. Becher 3 for St. Louis City, S. Moore 18 for FC Dallas, D. Edelman 43 for St. Louis City, C. Holse 64 for St. Louis City, S. Ibeagha 81 for FC Dallas, L. Farrington 90+7 for FC Dallas.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Sun 30 AugUS Open 2026

Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston

Daniil Medvedev 85%Hugo Gaston 15%

Daniil Medvedev won. 6-4, 6-2, 6-4

The read

Daniil Medvedev 85%Hugo Gaston 15%

Daniil Medvedev is favoured at 85 percent against Hugo Gaston, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Daniil Medvedev win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Daniil Medvedev at US Open

Same day at US Open, 29 Aug

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Sun 30 AugUS Open 2026

Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Jessica Pegula

Elena Gabriela Ruse 12%Jessica Pegula 88%

Jessica Pegula won. 6-3, 6-2

The read

Elena Gabriela Ruse 12%Jessica Pegula 88%

Jessica Pegula is favoured at 88 percent against Elena Gabriela Ruse, the median implied probability across 23 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 7 odds snapshots.

Elena Gabriela Ruse win probability across 7 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 23 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jessica Pegula at US Open

Same day at US Open, 29 Aug

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy

San Diego host Los Angeles Galaxy on Matchday 22 in a match where the home side are clear favourites, though a draw remains the most likely outcome.

San Diego 50%Draw 27%Los Angeles Galaxy 23%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
San Diego have won two of their last four, Los Angeles Galaxy one of four with three draws.
Venue, travel and rest
San Diego's home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium is factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 2)
San Diego won both of the last two meetings between these sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.61 for San Diego and 1.03 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for San Diego, 23 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Diego win band is held at 30 to 70.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

San Diego 3 Los Angeles Galaxy 1 at full time. Goals: E. Achouri 11 for San Diego, K. Sargeant 48 for San Diego, H. Lozano 55 for Los Angeles Galaxy, A. Pellegrino 70 for San Diego. J. Tverskov of San Diego sent off 50.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

Portland Timbers vs Austin

Portland Timbers host Austin on Matchday 22 at Providence Park, with the model calling a tight encounter that favors the home side but carries real uncertainty.

Portland Timbers 46%Draw 27%Austin 27%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Portland won two of their last four matches; Austin lost back-to-back before drawing with Philadelphia.
Venue, travel and rest
Portland play at home at Providence Park, a standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
The teams have split their last three meetings: Portland 1 win, Austin 1 win, 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.52 for Portland Timbers and 1.11 for Austin. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for Portland Timbers, 27 for Austin and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portland Timbers win band is held at 26 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Portland Timbers 1 Austin 2 at full time. Goals: F. Torres 25 for Austin, Antony 89 for Portland Timbers penalty, O. Svatok 90+3 for Austin.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake

Colorado Rapids host Real Salt Lake on Matchday 22 with the model leaning toward a Rapids win, though the underlying data quality is too low to have high conviction.

Colorado Rapids 56%Draw 25%Real Salt Lake 19%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Colorado won three of four before losing 0-3 to San Diego; Real Salt Lake drew two and lost two of their last four.
Venue, travel and rest
Colorado's home ground provides standard home advantage already factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Equal split across last four meetings, 2-2 with zero draws between them.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.74 for Colorado Rapids and 0.92 for Real Salt Lake. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 56 for Colorado Rapids, 19 for Real Salt Lake and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Colorado Rapids win band is held at 35 to 75.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Colorado Rapids 1 Real Salt Lake 0 at full time. Goals: R. Cannon 58 for Colorado Rapids.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver Whitecaps visit Sporting Kansas City on Matchday 22 with Thomas Muller in their squad, and the model sees the visitors as clear favorites despite playing away.

Sporting Kansas City 19%Draw 25%Vancouver Whitecaps 56%

Called 1-1. Final 0-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Sporting have lost three of four (0-2 vs Houston, 0-2 vs Colorado, 1-2 vs Atlanta) with only a 1-1 draw vs St. Louis. Vancouver won twice (2-0 vs Seattle, 5-0 vs Dallas) and drew once (1-1 vs Los Angeles) in their last four, losing only to Houston.
Venue, travel and rest
Sporting Kansas City host at Children's Mercy Park, providing standard home advantage priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Vancouver have won all four of their last four meetings with Sporting, with no draws or losses in that run.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.92 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.74 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 19 for Sporting Kansas City, 56 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Sporting Kansas City win band is held at 7 to 36.

2.4k184

What happened

0-3Missed · we picked 1-1

Sporting Kansas City 0 Vancouver Whitecaps 3 at full time. Goals: T. Muller 40 for Vancouver Whitecaps penalty, B. White 48 for Vancouver Whitecaps, R. Elloumi 90 for Vancouver Whitecaps.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati

Nashville SC host FC Cincinnati on Matchday 22 in a tight contest where home advantage gives the hosts a slight edge, but a draw remains the most likely outcome.

Nashville SC 41%Draw 28%FC Cincinnati 31%

Called 1-1. Final 4-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Nashville won three of their last four, beating Inter Miami 4-1 and New York Red Bulls 1-0. Cincinnati posted two wins and two draws across their last four, with a 4-2 win over San Jose Earthquakes.
Venue, travel and rest
Match is at Geodis Park in Nashville, where the home team receives standard home advantage in the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Cincinnati dominated the recent head-to-head, winning two of the last three meetings with Nashville, including one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for Nashville SC and 1.19 for FC Cincinnati. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Nashville SC, 31 for FC Cincinnati and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Nashville SC win band is held at 23 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

4-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Nashville SC 4 FC Cincinnati 0 at full time. Goals: S. Surridge 43 for Nashville SC, H. Mukhtar 53 for Nashville SC, B. Acosta 89 for Nashville SC, A. Qasem 90+6 for Nashville SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC host Orlando City SC at Allianz Field in a tight matchup where the model expects neither side to find a winner. Our forecast has the match ending 1-1, with Minnesota slight favorites on home soil.

Minnesota United FC 39%Draw 28%Orlando City SC 33%

Called 1-1. Final 3-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Minnesota have drawn twice in their last four games; Orlando have lost twice in their last four.
Venue, travel and rest
Minnesota play at home, which the model factors as a standard advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Orlando have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.38 for Minnesota United FC and 1.23 for Orlando City SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 39 for Minnesota United FC, 33 for Orlando City SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Minnesota United FC win band is held at 21 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

3-3Right call · we picked 1-1

Minnesota United FC 3 Orlando City SC 3 at full time. Goals: D. Dike 28 for Orlando City SC, A. Griezmann 64 for Orlando City SC, M. Caldeira 72 for Minnesota United FC, A. Markanich 74 for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah 76 for Minnesota United FC, T. Spicer 90+3 for Orlando City SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sun 30 Aug

Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo host San Jose Earthquakes on Matchday 22 with the hosts favored to control proceedings at Shell Energy Stadium.

Houston Dynamo 65%Draw 22%San Jose Earthquakes 13%

Called 2-0. Final 0-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Houston have won four of five recent matches; San Jose have lost four consecutive and conceded 13 goals in that stretch.
Venue, travel and rest
Houston play at home, a standard advantage the model accounts for in its forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Their last three meetings produced one win each and one draw, suggesting competitive history despite current form disparity.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.94 for Houston Dynamo and 0.75 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Houston Dynamo, 13 for San Jose Earthquakes and 22 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Houston Dynamo win band is held at 44 to 82.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Missed · we picked 2-0

Houston Dynamo 0 San Jose Earthquakes 0 at full time.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

Toronto FC vs New York City FC

Toronto FC host New York City FC at BMO Field in a matchday 22 clash where the hosts are favored despite recent inconsistency. Our model leans toward a Toronto win, though a draw remains well in play.

Toronto FC 53%Draw 26%New York City FC 21%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Toronto won 2 of last 4 matches; New York City won 0 of last 4, with 2 losses.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto FC play at home, a standard advantage reflected in the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
New York City won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these sides, providing contrarian weight against Toronto's home edge.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.67 for Toronto FC and 0.98 for New York City FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for Toronto FC, 21 for New York City FC and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Toronto FC win band is held at 32 to 72.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union arrive at Sports Illustrated Stadium as favorites against New York Red Bulls on Matchday 22, with our model leaning toward a Philadelphia win despite the home advantage.

New York Red Bulls 25%Draw 27%Philadelphia Union 48%

Called 1-1. Final 1-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
New York show inconsistency with one win and two losses in last four games; Philadelphia have momentum with two wins and two draws.
Venue, travel and rest
New York's home advantage at Sports Illustrated Stadium is factored into the model but insufficient to overcome Philadelphia's underlying strength.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Philadelphia dominate the head-to-head record, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings against New York.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.07 for New York Red Bulls and 1.56 for Philadelphia Union. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 25 for New York Red Bulls, 48 for Philadelphia Union and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York Red Bulls win band is held at 11 to 44.

2.4k184

What happened

1-3Missed · we picked 1-1

New York Red Bulls 1 Philadelphia Union 3 at full time. Goals: M. Iloski 21 for Philadelphia Union, C. Sullivan 50 for Philadelphia Union, N. Pierre 65 for Philadelphia Union, E. M. Choupo-Moting 74 for New York Red Bulls.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

Inter Miami vs CF Montreal

Lionel Messi and Inter Miami host CF Montreal in a matchday 22 clash where the model sees a draw as the likeliest outcome, despite Miami's dominance in recent head-to-head meetings.

Inter Miami 33%Draw 28%CF Montreal 39%

Called 1-1. Final 7-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Inter Miami have one win in their last four matches (D 2-2, L 1-4, D 2-2, L 1-2), while CF Montreal have one win and three draws (D 2-2, D 1-1, W 2-1, D 2-2).
Venue, travel and rest
Match played at Nu Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Inter Miami's home ground.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Inter Miami won all four of their last four meetings against CF Montreal with no draws or losses.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.23 for Inter Miami and 1.38 for CF Montreal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 33 for Inter Miami, 39 for CF Montreal and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Inter Miami win band is held at 16 to 52.

2.4k184

What happened

7-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Inter Miami 7 CF Montreal 1 at full time. Goals: Casemiro 20 for Inter Miami, F. Herbers 37 for CF Montreal, L. Petrasso 40 for Inter Miami own goal, L. Messi 52 for Inter Miami, L. Suarez 80 for Inter Miami, L. Messi 83 for Inter Miami, A. Shaw 89 for Inter Miami, L. Messi 90+6 for Inter Miami.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

DC United vs Los Angeles FC

Son Heung-min and Los Angeles FC visit Audi Field to face DC United in a tightly matched Matchday 22 contest, with our model calling a 1-1 draw despite both sides showing inconsistent form.

DC United 36%Draw 29%Los Angeles FC 35%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
DC United won 1 of 4, LAFC won 1 of 4; both teams inconsistent with multiple draws and heavy defeats
Venue, travel and rest
DC United home advantage at Audi Field is priced into the model
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
LAFC hold edge with 2 wins to DC's 1 in last 4 meetings, with 1 draw

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.31 for DC United and 1.29 for Los Angeles FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 36 for DC United, 35 for Los Angeles FC and 29 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the DC United win band is held at 19 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

DC United 0 Los Angeles FC 0 at full time.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution

Columbus Crew host New England Revolution on Matchday 22 with the model leaning toward a draw despite the visitors' recent edge.

Columbus Crew 28%Draw 28%New England Revolution 44%

Called 1-1. Final 1-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Columbus winless in last four games (one draw, three losses); New England alternating results with one win and three losses across their last five matches.
Venue, travel and rest
Columbus play at home, which typically provides an advantage that the model accounts for.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Even split of 2-2 across last four head-to-head meetings with no draws between them.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.15 for Columbus Crew and 1.47 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for Columbus Crew, 44 for New England Revolution and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Columbus Crew win band is held at 13 to 48.

2.4k184

What happened

1-3Missed · we picked 1-1

Columbus Crew 1 New England Revolution 3 at full time. Goals: B. Mendez 8 for Columbus Crew, M. Polster 32 for New England Revolution, D. Turgeman 41 for New England Revolution, C. Gil 79 for New England Revolution.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte

Atlanta United FC host Charlotte on Matchday 22 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with the model calling a 1-1 draw as most likely despite Atlanta's slight edge in expected goals.

Atlanta United FC 43%Draw 28%Charlotte 29%

Called 1-1. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Atlanta won 3 of last 4 (losses to Philadelphia aside), while Charlotte mixed 2 wins with a loss to Chicago and a draw with Toronto.
Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is factored into the model's win probability for Atlanta.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Charlotte have the edge in the last 4 meetings with 2 wins to Atlanta's 1, plus 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.45 for Atlanta United FC and 1.17 for Charlotte. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Atlanta United FC, 29 for Charlotte and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Atlanta United FC win band is held at 24 to 63.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Atlanta United FC 0 Charlotte 2 at full time. Goals: I. Toklomati 22 for Charlotte, L. Abada 48 for Charlotte.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 22Sat 29 Aug

Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire

Robert Lewandowski's arrival at Chicago Fire has them favored against Seattle Sounders on Matchday 22, with the visitors given a 55% chance to take all three points at Lumen Field.

Seattle Sounders 19%Draw 26%Chicago Fire 55%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Chicago won three of their last four games 2-1; Seattle lost three straight by single goals before drawing 1-1.
Venue, travel and rest
Seattle's home advantage at Lumen Field is factored into the model but overridden by Chicago's superior form.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Teams have split their last four meetings evenly, two wins each, suggesting no clear historical edge.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.93 for Seattle Sounders and 1.73 for Chicago Fire. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 19 for Seattle Sounders, 55 for Chicago Fire and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Seattle Sounders win band is held at 7 to 36.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Seattle Sounders 2 Chicago Fire 2 at full time. Goals: D. Joveljic 12 for Seattle Sounders, M. Haile-Selassie 38 for Chicago Fire, D. Joveljic 48 for Seattle Sounders, R. Lewandowski 82 for Chicago Fire.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

Atlanta United FC host Sporting Kansas City on matchday 21 with the home side favored to win, though a draw remains a realistic outcome in what looks like a tightly balanced contest.

Atlanta United FC 58%Draw 25%Sporting Kansas City 17%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Atlanta won 2 of last 3 before losing 2-3 to Philadelphia; Sporting have lost their last 2 games without scoring.
Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta play at home, which the model factors as a standard home advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last 4 meetings split evenly: Atlanta 2 wins, Sporting 2 wins, no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.79 for Atlanta United FC and 0.88 for Sporting Kansas City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 58 for Atlanta United FC, 17 for Sporting Kansas City and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Atlanta United FC win band is held at 37 to 76.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Atlanta United FC 2 Sporting Kansas City 1 at full time. Goals: T. Jacob 13 for Atlanta United FC, F. Picault 24 for Atlanta United FC, S. Afrifa 70 for Sporting Kansas City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

New England Revolution vs New York City FC

New England Revolution host New York City FC at Gillette Stadium in a Matchday 21 clash where the model leans toward a home advantage, predicting a draw but giving the Revolution a slight edge.

New England Revolution 49%Draw 27%New York City FC 24%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
New England have one win, two losses and one draw in their last four; New York City FC are winless in three recent outings
Venue, travel and rest
Match played at Gillette Stadium in Boston, where New England plays at home
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Last three meetings show one Revolution win, one City win, one draw

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.59 for New England Revolution and 1.05 for New York City FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for New England Revolution, 24 for New York City FC and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New England Revolution win band is held at 29 to 69.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

New England Revolution 1 New York City FC 1 at full time. Goals: D. Turgeman 36 for New England Revolution, J. Sands 45+1 for New York City FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC

San Jose Earthquakes host Minnesota United FC at PayPal Park on Matchday 21, and our model sees this as a tight affair with Minnesota slight favorites despite playing away.

San Jose Earthquakes 28%Draw 28%Minnesota United FC 44%

Called 1-1. Final 1-5, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
San Jose lost three straight with a combined 2-8 scoreline; Minnesota drew twice and lost once, showing comparative resilience.
Venue, travel and rest
San Jose's home field at PayPal Park provides standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Minnesota leads the recent head-to-head 2-1 across the last three matches.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.14 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.49 for Minnesota United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for San Jose Earthquakes, 44 for Minnesota United FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Jose Earthquakes win band is held at 13 to 47.

2.4k184

What happened

1-5Missed · we picked 1-1

San Jose Earthquakes 1 Minnesota United FC 5 at full time. Goals: T. Werner 4 for San Jose Earthquakes penalty, J. Pereyra 10 for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah 40 for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah 44 for Minnesota United FC, M. Caldeira 65 for Minnesota United FC, M. Gonzalez 86 for Minnesota United FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

San Diego vs Colorado Rapids

Colorado Rapids arrive at Snapdragon Stadium as heavy favorites against San Diego on Matchday 21. The model expects a draw but gives Colorado a 53% win probability.

San Diego 21%Draw 26%Colorado Rapids 53%

Called 1-1. Final 3-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Colorado have won three straight; San Diego have drawn once, won once, and lost once in their last three.
Venue, travel and rest
San Diego's home ground at Snapdragon Stadium provides standard home advantage pricing.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Colorado lead 2-1 in the last three head-to-head meetings.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.98 for San Diego and 1.67 for Colorado Rapids. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 21 for San Diego, 53 for Colorado Rapids and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Diego win band is held at 8 to 39.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Missed · we picked 1-1

San Diego 3 Colorado Rapids 0 at full time. Goals: O. Valakari 27 for San Diego, E. Achouri 35 for San Diego, Gabriel Pirani 71 for San Diego.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers

Son Heung-min and Los Angeles FC host Portland Timbers on Matchday 21, but the model backs the visitors despite LAFC's home advantage.

Los Angeles FC 20%Draw 26%Portland Timbers 54%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Los Angeles FC have struggled with two straight defeats before drawing with Vancouver. Portland show inconsistency but carry momentum from a 3-1 win over San Diego.
Venue, travel and rest
BMO Stadium provides standard home advantage for Los Angeles FC, priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Portland unbeaten in last four meetings with 2 wins and 2 draws; Los Angeles have not won their last four head-to-head encounters.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.96 for Los Angeles FC and 1.69 for Portland Timbers. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 20 for Los Angeles FC, 54 for Portland Timbers and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles FC win band is held at 8 to 38.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles FC 1 Portland Timbers 1 at full time. Goals: D. Da Costa 4 for Portland Timbers, D. Bouanga 79 for Los Angeles FC. V. Janssen of Portland Timbers sent off 90+3.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Dallas

Vancouver Whitecaps host FC Dallas on Matchday 21 with Thomas Muller, the 2014 World Cup winner, leading the charge at home. The model sees this as a toss-up, leaning slightly toward the visitors.

Vancouver Whitecaps 28%Draw 28%FC Dallas 44%

Called 1-1. Final 5-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Vancouver drew with LAFC and beat Seattle but lost to Houston; Dallas drew with LA Galaxy and won their last two games against Austin and Real Salt Lake.
Venue, travel and rest
Vancouver play at home at BC Place, where standard home advantage is already priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Vancouver won 2 of the last 4 meetings between the sides, Dallas won 1, and 1 ended level.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.14 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.48 for FC Dallas. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for Vancouver Whitecaps, 44 for FC Dallas and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Vancouver Whitecaps win band is held at 13 to 48.

2.4k184

What happened

5-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Vancouver Whitecaps 5 FC Dallas 0 at full time. Goals: E. Sabbi 11 for Vancouver Whitecaps, B. White 23 for Vancouver Whitecaps, B. White 37 for Vancouver Whitecaps, E. Ocampo 45+6 for Vancouver Whitecaps, B. Caicedo 68 for Vancouver Whitecaps.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

Austin vs Philadelphia Union

Austin host Philadelphia Union on Matchday 21 with the visitors favored despite a draw being the model's predicted outcome.

Austin 25%Draw 27%Philadelphia Union 48%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Austin have won just once in their last three, while Philadelphia Union have won twice and drawn once in the same period.
Venue, travel and rest
Austin benefit from home advantage at Q2 Stadium, though recent results suggest this has not translated to results.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Head-to-head history over three meetings shows Philadelphia Union with one win and two draws, giving them a slight historical edge.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.07 for Austin and 1.57 for Philadelphia Union. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 25 for Austin, 48 for Philadelphia Union and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Austin win band is held at 11 to 44.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Austin 1 Philadelphia Union 1 at full time. Goals: C. Sullivan 18 for Philadelphia Union, B. Hines-Ike 21 for Austin.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo

St. Louis City host Houston Dynamo on Matchday 21 of MLS 2026, but the visitors arrive as clear favorites despite playing away from CITYPARK.

St. Louis City 25%Draw 27%Houston Dynamo 48%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Houston undefeated in four, St. Louis mixed with one win and two draws in their last three.
Venue, travel and rest
St. Louis play at home but face a visiting side in exceptional form.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Houston lead the head-to-head 2-1 in the last three meetings.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.07 for St. Louis City and 1.56 for Houston Dynamo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 25 for St. Louis City, 48 for Houston Dynamo and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the St. Louis City win band is held at 11 to 44.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

St. Louis City 2 Houston Dynamo 1 at full time. Goals: S. Becher 23 for St. Louis City, I. Aliyu 75 for Houston Dynamo, D. Polvara 85 for St. Louis City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sun 23 Aug

Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew

Nashville SC host Columbus Crew at Geodis Park on Matchday 21, and the model sees a comfortable home win on the cards.

Nashville SC 69%Draw 21%Columbus Crew 10%

Called 2-0. Final 3-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Nashville won 2 of their last 3 games including a 4-1 demolition of Inter Miami; Columbus lost 2 straight to Charlotte and Montreal.
Venue, travel and rest
Nashville play at home, a standard advantage already priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Nashville won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings with Columbus, with no wins for the visitors.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.05 for Nashville SC and 0.66 for Columbus Crew. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 69 for Nashville SC, 10 for Columbus Crew and 21 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Nashville SC win band is held at 49 to 85.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 2-0

Nashville SC 3 Columbus Crew 2 at full time. Goals: H. Mukhtar 27 for Nashville SC, M. Farsi 58 for Columbus Crew, A. Gomes 68 for Columbus Crew, R. Baker-Whiting 90+3 for Nashville SC, A. Najar 90+5 for Nashville SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sat 22 Aug

Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake

Orlando City SC host Real Salt Lake on Matchday 21 with the two sides evenly matched and a draw the most likely outcome in a low-confidence forecast.

Orlando City SC 34%Draw 28%Real Salt Lake 38%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Orlando have won once in their last four (three games tracked), losing twice. Real Salt Lake have taken two draws from their last three matches.
Venue, travel and rest
Orlando's home advantage at Exploria Stadium is factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Real Salt Lake lead the recent head-to-head with 2 wins to Orlando's 1 across the last 4 meetings, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.25 for Orlando City SC and 1.35 for Real Salt Lake. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Orlando City SC, 38 for Real Salt Lake and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Orlando City SC win band is held at 17 to 53.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sat 22 Aug

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

Robert Lewandowski's Chicago Fire arrive at Sports Illustrated Stadium as favorites against New York Red Bulls on Matchday 21, with our model backing the visitors despite the home side's recent win.

New York Red Bulls 18%Draw 25%Chicago Fire 57%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
New York on 1-2-0 in last three matches; Chicago on 3-0-0 with consistent 2-1 victories
Venue, travel and rest
Red Bulls home advantage at Sports Illustrated Stadium is factored into the model
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last 4 meetings split evenly at 2-2 with no draws, showing balanced history

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.90 for New York Red Bulls and 1.77 for Chicago Fire. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 18 for New York Red Bulls, 57 for Chicago Fire and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York Red Bulls win band is held at 6 to 35.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sat 22 Aug

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC

Lionel Messi leads Inter Miami against Toronto FC in a matchday 21 clash where the hosts are slight underdogs despite their home advantage at Nu Stadium.

Inter Miami 32%Draw 28%Toronto FC 40%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Inter Miami have been inconsistent with draws against Columbus and Philadelphia bookending a heavy loss to Nashville. Toronto show similar mixed form with a win over New England among two draws.
Venue, travel and rest
Inter Miami's home advantage at Nu Stadium is factored into the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Inter Miami have won 2 of the last 4 meetings against Toronto with 2 draws, giving them a clear historical edge.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.22 for Inter Miami and 1.40 for Toronto FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for Inter Miami, 40 for Toronto FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Inter Miami win band is held at 15 to 52.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Inter Miami 1 Toronto FC 2 at full time. Goals: J. Sargent 59 for Toronto FC, D. Etienne 62 for Toronto FC, L. Messi 83 for Inter Miami.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sat 22 Aug

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders

FC Cincinnati host Seattle Sounders on Matchday 21 with the model backing a comfortable home win. The hosts are heavily favored at 68 percent.

FC Cincinnati 68%Draw 21%Seattle Sounders 11%

Called 2-0. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Cincinnati won 2 of their last 3, while Seattle lost all 3 consecutive matches.
Venue, travel and rest
Cincinnati play at home, a standard advantage reflected in the model's pricing.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Even split across the last 3 meetings: one Cincinnati win, one Seattle win, one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.01 for FC Cincinnati and 0.69 for Seattle Sounders. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 68 for FC Cincinnati, 11 for Seattle Sounders and 21 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the FC Cincinnati win band is held at 48 to 84.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

FC Cincinnati 1 Seattle Sounders 1 at full time. Goals: Evander 24 for FC Cincinnati, K. Kossa-Rienzi 83 for Seattle Sounders.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sat 22 Aug

Charlotte vs DC United

Charlotte host DC United on Matchday 21 of MLS 2026, and the model leans toward the home side despite a matchup with plenty of uncertainty built in.

Charlotte 52%Draw 26%DC United 22%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Charlotte won 3-1 vs Columbus Crew most recently; DC United have managed only draws and a 0-3 loss to New England.
Venue, travel and rest
Charlotte play at home, with standard home advantage already factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Charlotte won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head meetings, with 1 draw and no DC United wins.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.66 for Charlotte and 0.99 for DC United. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for Charlotte, 22 for DC United and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Charlotte win band is held at 32 to 71.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Charlotte 3 DC United 1 at full time. Goals: L. Munteanu 55 for DC United, D. Schnegg 64 for Charlotte, W. Cleary 66 for Charlotte, P. Biel 77 for Charlotte.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 21Sat 22 Aug

CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy

CF Montreal host Los Angeles Galaxy on Matchday 21 in a tight contest that our model expects to end level.

CF Montreal 39%Draw 28%Los Angeles Galaxy 33%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Montreal unbeaten in three (two draws, one win); Galaxy mixed with one win, one loss, one draw in their last three.
Venue, travel and rest
Montreal benefit from home advantage at Saputo Stadium, priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Galaxy have dominated the head-to-head record, winning all four of their last four meetings against Montreal.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.36 for CF Montreal and 1.24 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 39 for CF Montreal, 33 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the CF Montreal win band is held at 21 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

CF Montreal 2 Los Angeles Galaxy 2 at full time. Goals: D. Rios 16 for CF Montreal, R. Ramos 19 for Los Angeles Galaxy, M. Yoshida 48 for Los Angeles Galaxy, P. Owusu 79 for CF Montreal. J. Marcinkowski of Los Angeles Galaxy sent off 68.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo

Vancouver Whitecaps host Houston Dynamo on Matchday 20 with Thomas Muller in the mix, but the visitors arrive as slight favorites despite playing away.

Vancouver Whitecaps 32%Draw 28%Houston Dynamo 40%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Houston on a three-match winning streak (2-0, 2-0, 1-0), while Vancouver drew 1-1 with Los Angeles FC before beating Seattle 2-0
Venue, travel and rest
BC Place provides standard home advantage, already priced into the model
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last four meetings split evenly: one win each and two draws

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.23 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.38 for Houston Dynamo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for Vancouver Whitecaps, 40 for Houston Dynamo and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Vancouver Whitecaps win band is held at 16 to 52.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Vancouver Whitecaps 0 Houston Dynamo 1 at full time. Goals: F. Negri 34 for Houston Dynamo.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Portland Timbers vs San Diego

Portland Timbers host San Diego on Matchday 20 of MLS 2026, but the visitors are slight favorites despite playing away in a fixture our model leans toward a draw.

Portland Timbers 27%Draw 28%San Diego 45%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Portland won 2-1 vs Seattle but lost 1-2 vs Chicago. San Diego drew 1-1 vs Minnesota and won 1-0 vs LAFC.
Venue, travel and rest
Portland Timbers play at home at Providence Park where standard home advantage is factored in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Portland won 1 of the last 4 meetings, San Diego won 2, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.12 for Portland Timbers and 1.50 for San Diego. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 27 for Portland Timbers, 45 for San Diego and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portland Timbers win band is held at 12 to 47.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Portland Timbers 3 San Diego 1 at full time. Goals: K. Velde 29 for Portland Timbers, Gabriel Pirani 45+1 for San Diego, A. Lassiter 51 for Portland Timbers, D. Da Costa 68 for Portland Timbers.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes

Los Angeles Galaxy host San Jose Earthquakes in an evenly matched MLS contest where the home side edges the prediction, though a draw remains firmly in play.

Los Angeles Galaxy 47%Draw 27%San Jose Earthquakes 26%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Galaxy drew 0-0 with Dallas then lost 0-1 to Houston; Earthquakes lost 2-4 to Cincinnati then 1-3 to St. Louis City
Venue, travel and rest
Galaxy play at home with standard home advantage factored into the model
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last 4 meetings: 1 Galaxy win, 1 Earthquakes win, 2 draws

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.55 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.08 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 47 for Los Angeles Galaxy, 26 for San Jose Earthquakes and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles Galaxy win band is held at 27 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles Galaxy 1 San Jose Earthquakes 0 at full time. Goals: J. Paintsil 79 for Los Angeles Galaxy. L. Sanabria of Los Angeles Galaxy sent off 45.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Seattle Sounders vs Austin

Seattle Sounders host Austin on matchday 20 in a tight contest where the model leans slightly toward the home side, but a draw remains highly plausible.

Seattle Sounders 40%Draw 28%Austin 32%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Both teams have lost consecutively, creating uncertainty and limiting confidence in form-based projections.
Venue, travel and rest
Seattle play at home at Lumen Field, which the model prices as a standard home advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The last four meetings are evenly split at 2-2, with no drawn matches, suggesting both teams match up competitively.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.38 for Seattle Sounders and 1.23 for Austin. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for Seattle Sounders, 32 for Austin and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Seattle Sounders win band is held at 21 to 60.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Seattle Sounders 1 Austin 2 at full time. Goals: F. Torres 66 for Austin, Guilherme Biro 87 for Austin, S. Hawkins 90 for Seattle Sounders.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas

Real Salt Lake host FC Dallas at America First Field on matchday 20 of MLS 2026, with the model leaning toward a Dallas upset despite Salt Lake's home advantage.

Real Salt Lake 26%Draw 27%FC Dallas 47%

Called 1-1. Final 3-4, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Real Salt Lake have drawn 1-1 twice running; Dallas drew 0-0 vs LA Galaxy then won 2-1 vs Austin
Venue, travel and rest
Match at Real Salt Lake's home ground America First Field; standard home advantage factored in
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Dallas won 3 of the last 4 head to head encounters, with 1 draw and 0 Real Salt Lake wins

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.10 for Real Salt Lake and 1.54 for FC Dallas. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 26 for Real Salt Lake, 47 for FC Dallas and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Real Salt Lake win band is held at 12 to 45.

2.4k184

What happened

3-4Missed · we picked 1-1

Real Salt Lake 3 FC Dallas 4 at full time. Goals: J. Valiente 16 for FC Dallas, P. Musa 20 for FC Dallas, S. Solans 38 for Real Salt Lake, P. Musa 45 for FC Dallas, M. Guilavogui 50 for Real Salt Lake, D. Luna 64 for Real Salt Lake, R. Binyamin 90 for FC Dallas.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Colorado Rapids vs Los Angeles FC

Colorado Rapids host Los Angeles FC on Matchday 20, with the home side favored to dominate despite LAFC's arrival of Son Heung-min from Tottenham. The model sees Colorado winning comfortably at 2-0.

Colorado Rapids 63%Draw 23%Los Angeles FC 14%

Called 2-0. Final 1-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Colorado won 1-0 and 2-0 in consecutive matches; LAFC drew 1-1 and lost 0-1
Venue, travel and rest
Colorado play at home; standard home advantage is priced into the forecast
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
LAFC won 2 of the last 4 meetings, with 2 draws and 0 Colorado wins

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.90 for Colorado Rapids and 0.78 for Los Angeles FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 63 for Colorado Rapids, 14 for Los Angeles FC and 23 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Colorado Rapids win band is held at 42 to 81.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Colorado Rapids 1 Los Angeles FC 0 at full time. Goals: J. Ebobisse 22 for Colorado Rapids own goal.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC

Minnesota United FC host Atlanta United FC on Matchday 20, with our model calling a 1-1 draw despite Atlanta holding a slight edge in win probability.

Minnesota United FC 35%Draw 28%Atlanta United FC 37%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Minnesota have drawn their last two matches 1-1 each; Atlanta lost 2-3 to Philadelphia but beat New York 2-1.
Venue, travel and rest
Minnesota United FC play at home at Allianz Field, where standard home advantage is factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
In their last 4 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota won 1 and Atlanta won 3, with no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for Minnesota United FC and 1.33 for Atlanta United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 35 for Minnesota United FC, 37 for Atlanta United FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Minnesota United FC win band is held at 17 to 54.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Minnesota United FC 1 Atlanta United FC 2 at full time. Goals: T. Jacob 37 for Atlanta United FC, A. Markanich 58 for Minnesota United FC, T. Muyumba 78 for Atlanta United FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Thu 20 Aug

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

Sporting Kansas City host St. Louis City on Matchday 20, but the visitors are heavy favorites to claim the points at Children's Mercy Park.

Sporting Kansas City 16%Draw 24%St. Louis City 60%

Called 0-1. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Sporting Kansas City have lost their last two matches 0-2 each; St. Louis City drew with Real Salt Lake then beat San Jose 3-1
Venue, travel and rest
Sporting Kansas City play at home, which the model factors as a standard home advantage
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
St. Louis City won 2 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings, with Sporting winning 1 and 1 draw

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.84 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.84 for St. Louis City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 16 for Sporting Kansas City, 60 for St. Louis City and 24 for a draw, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Sporting Kansas City win band is held at 5 to 32.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Sporting Kansas City 1 St. Louis City 1 at full time. Goals: E. Lowen 45+2 for St. Louis City, C. Harris 55 for Sporting Kansas City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

Toronto FC vs Charlotte

Toronto FC host Charlotte at BMO Field in a clash that could go either way. Our model leans slightly toward the hosts, but a draw looks very much on the cards.

Toronto FC 41%Draw 28%Charlotte 31%

Called 1-1. Final 3-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Toronto drew 1-1 with NYCFC then beat New England 2-1. Charlotte lost 1-2 to Chicago Fire but responded with a 3-1 win over Columbus Crew.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto FC play at BMO Field, their home ground, which the model factors as a standard home advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Charlotte have won all four of their last four meetings against Toronto FC, with no draws or Toronto victories in that stretch.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.41 for Toronto FC and 1.21 for Charlotte. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Toronto FC, 31 for Charlotte and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Toronto FC win band is held at 22 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

3-3Right call · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami

Philadelphia Union host Inter Miami at Subaru Park on Matchday 20, and our model backs the hosts despite Lionel Messi's presence on the other side. The prediction: Union 61% to win, with a 1-0 scoreline most likely.

Philadelphia Union 61%Draw 24%Inter Miami 15%

Called 1-0. Final 2-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Union won their last two matches decisively (3-2 each); Miami drew 2-2 and lost 1-4 in their last two outings.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia Union's home ground provides standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Inter Miami lead the head-to-head record from the last four meetings with three wins, one draw, and no Union victories.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.86 for Philadelphia Union and 0.82 for Inter Miami. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 61 for Philadelphia Union, 15 for Inter Miami and 24 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Philadelphia Union win band is held at 41 to 79.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Missed · we picked 1-0

Philadelphia Union 2 Inter Miami 2 at full time. Goals: I. Vassilev 11 for Philadelphia Union, D. Pinter 21 for Inter Miami, L. Messi 26 for Inter Miami, N. Pierre 58 for Philadelphia Union. C. Sullivan of Philadelphia Union sent off 90+13. Y. Bright of Inter Miami sent off 90+13.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire

Robert Lewandowski arrives in MLS with Chicago Fire, and the striker looks primed to make an immediate impact against Orlando City SC at home. Our model gives the visitors a commanding 61 percent chance to win on Matchday 20.

Orlando City SC 15%Draw 24%Chicago Fire 61%

Called 0-1. Final 1-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Orlando lost to New York Red Bulls 2-3 and drew with FC Cincinnati 1-1; Chicago won 2-1 vs Charlotte and 2-1 vs Portland Timbers.
Venue, travel and rest
Match played at Exploria Stadium where Orlando City SC hold standard home advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 3 meetings; Orlando City SC won 0, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.82 for Orlando City SC and 1.86 for Chicago Fire. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 15 for Orlando City SC, 61 for Chicago Fire and 24 for a draw, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Orlando City SC win band is held at 5 to 31.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Right call · we picked 0-1

Orlando City SC 1 Chicago Fire 2 at full time. Goals: P. Dithejane 4 for Chicago Fire, D. Brekalo 52 for Orlando City SC, R. Lewandowski 69 for Chicago Fire penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC

New York Red Bulls host Nashville SC in a Matchday 20 clash where the visitors are slight favorites despite playing away. Our model leans toward Nashville but warns that uncertainty is high.

New York Red Bulls 29%Draw 28%Nashville SC 43%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Red Bulls mixed with a win over Orlando and loss to Atlanta; Nashville stronger with a dominant 4-1 win over Inter Miami following a draw with DC United.
Venue, travel and rest
New York's home ground at Sports Illustrated Stadium provides standard home advantage, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Last three meetings split evenly: one win each and one draw, offering no clear historical advantage.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.16 for New York Red Bulls and 1.47 for Nashville SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 29 for New York Red Bulls, 43 for Nashville SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York Red Bulls win band is held at 13 to 48.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC

FC Cincinnati host New York City FC on Matchday 20 with the hosts favored to win, though a draw remains the likeliest outcome when you account for the model's uncertainty.

FC Cincinnati 53%Draw 26%New York City FC 21%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Cincinnati won 4-2 vs San Jose and drew 1-1 vs Orlando; NYCFC drew 1-1 vs Toronto and lost 2-3 vs Philadelphia.
Venue, travel and rest
Cincinnati's home advantage at TQL Stadium is factored into the model's baseline.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
NYCFC won 2 of the last 4 meetings; Cincinnati won none; 2 were drawn.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.69 for FC Cincinnati and 0.97 for New York City FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for FC Cincinnati, 21 for New York City FC and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the FC Cincinnati win band is held at 33 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

DC United vs New England Revolution

DC United host New England Revolution at Audi Field on Matchday 20, with the model backing the home side in a close contest that could easily go either way.

DC United 50%Draw 27%New England Revolution 23%

Called 1-1. Final 0-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
DC United stuck in draws; New England showing mixed form with two recent losses.
Venue, travel and rest
DC United's home advantage at Audi Field is priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
New England hold the edge in recent head-to-head, with 2 wins to DC United's 1 in their last 4 meetings.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.62 for DC United and 1.02 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for DC United, 23 for New England Revolution and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the DC United win band is held at 30 to 70.

2.4k184

What happened

0-3Missed · we picked 1-1

DC United 0 New England Revolution 3 at full time. Goals: A. Yusuf 23 for New England Revolution, A. Yusuf 45 for New England Revolution, A. Yusuf 66 for New England Revolution.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 20Wed 19 Aug

Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal

Columbus Crew host CF Montreal on Matchday 20 with the model calling a cagey 1-1 draw, though either side has a reasonable path to victory.

Columbus Crew 35%Draw 28%CF Montreal 37%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Columbus showed vulnerability with a loss to Charlotte after drawing with Miami; Montreal stabilized with consecutive draws.
Venue, travel and rest
Columbus benefit from home advantage at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Columbus lead the head-to-head 2-0-1 across the last three encounters.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for Columbus Crew and 1.33 for CF Montreal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 35 for Columbus Crew, 37 for CF Montreal and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Columbus Crew win band is held at 17 to 55.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Columbus Crew 1 CF Montreal 2 at full time. Goals: P. Owusu 5 for CF Montreal, T. Gillier 20 for Columbus Crew own goal, N. Streit 78 for CF Montreal.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Mon 17 Aug

Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Seattle Sounders host Vancouver Whitecaps on matchday 19 with the model backing the home side to dominate, though data limitations mean this forecast comes with caveats.

Seattle Sounders 63%Draw 23%Vancouver Whitecaps 14%

Called 2-0. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Seattle's home advantage at Lumen Field is factored into the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Seattle won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Vancouver, with 1 draw and no Whitecaps victories.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.91 for Seattle Sounders and 0.78 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 63 for Seattle Sounders, 14 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 23 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Seattle Sounders win band is held at 38 to 85.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 2-0

Seattle Sounders 0 Vancouver Whitecaps 2 at full time. Goals: R. Elloumi 77 for Vancouver Whitecaps, T. Muller 82 for Vancouver Whitecaps.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Mon 17 Aug

Austin vs FC Dallas

Austin host FC Dallas on Matchday 19 at Q2 Stadium, where the model sees a draw as the most likely outcome in a closely matched contest.

Austin 34%Draw 28%FC Dallas 38%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Austin play at home at Q2 Stadium, where standard home advantage is priced into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
In the last three meetings, FC Dallas won twice, with one draw and no wins for Austin.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.26 for Austin and 1.34 for FC Dallas. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Austin, 38 for FC Dallas and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Austin win band is held at 14 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Austin 1 FC Dallas 2 at full time. Goals: L. Abubakar 45+2 for FC Dallas, E. Torres 57 for Austin, P. Musa 73 for FC Dallas.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

New York City FC host Philadelphia Union at Yankee Stadium in a clash where the model backs the home side. NYCFC are favored to win, though the prediction comes with notable uncertainty.

New York City FC 60%Draw 24%Philadelphia Union 16%

Called 1-0. Final 2-3, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage at Yankee Stadium is built into the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
NYCFC won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against Philadelphia, establishing a positive trend for the home side.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.83 for New York City FC and 0.85 for Philadelphia Union. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 60 for New York City FC, 16 for Philadelphia Union and 24 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 34 to 82.

2.4k184

What happened

2-3Missed · we picked 1-0

New York City FC 2 Philadelphia Union 3 at full time. Goals: B. Traore 4 for New York City FC penalty, Luighi 45+2 for New York City FC penalty, D. Jean Jacques 48 for Philadelphia Union, B. Damiani 69 for Philadelphia Union, B. Damiani 75 for Philadelphia Union.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers

Robert Lewandowski's arrival at Chicago Fire adds intrigue to a Matchday 19 clash against Portland Timbers, but our model sees a draw as likely despite the home team's edge.

Chicago Fire 54%Draw 26%Portland Timbers 20%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Chicago Fire's home ground at Soldier Field provides standard home advantage, factored into the 54 percent win probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Historical head-to-head shows Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 4 meetings against Portland Timbers, with 1 Portland win and 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for Chicago Fire and 0.95 for Portland Timbers. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for Chicago Fire, 20 for Portland Timbers and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Chicago Fire win band is held at 29 to 77.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Chicago Fire 2 Portland Timbers 1 at full time. Goals: R. Lod 9 for Chicago Fire, D. D'Avilla 14 for Chicago Fire, F. Surman 85 for Portland Timbers.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City

San Jose Earthquakes host St. Louis City on Matchday 19 with the model calling a draw, though the Earthquakes' home advantage gives them a slight edge in win probability.

San Jose Earthquakes 49%Draw 27%St. Louis City 24%

Called 1-1. Final 1-3, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
San Jose play at home at PayPal Park, where the model applies standard home advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The teams have won two apiece across their last four meetings with no draws, showing an even historical record.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.06 for St. Louis City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for San Jose Earthquakes, 24 for St. Louis City and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Jose Earthquakes win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

1-3Missed · we picked 1-1

San Jose Earthquakes 1 St. Louis City 3 at full time. Goals: D. Edelman 8 for St. Louis City, S. Becher 27 for St. Louis City, B. Leroux 47 for San Jose Earthquakes, S. Becher 55 for St. Louis City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

Los Angeles FC vs San Diego

Los Angeles FC host San Diego on Matchday 19 with Son Heung-min, the MLS-record signing from Tottenham, leading the home side. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw despite giving San Diego a slight edge in win probability.

Los Angeles FC 34%Draw 28%San Diego 38%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles FC benefit from home advantage at BMO Stadium, a standard factor the model has priced in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
San Diego hold the upper hand in recent history, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings with Los Angeles FC, though one ended in a draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.26 for Los Angeles FC and 1.34 for San Diego. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Los Angeles FC, 38 for San Diego and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles FC win band is held at 14 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles FC 0 San Diego 1 at full time. Goals: A. Dreyer 89 for San Diego penalty. A. Dreyer of San Diego sent off 90+6.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United FC

Real Salt Lake host Minnesota United FC in a matchday 19 clash where the model sees a draw as the most likely outcome despite the home side's slight edge.

Real Salt Lake 38%Draw 28%Minnesota United FC 34%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Real Salt Lake play at home at America First Field, a standard home advantage the model prices in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Across their last 4 meetings, Real Salt Lake won 0, Minnesota United FC won 2, with 2 drawn.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.34 for Real Salt Lake and 1.27 for Minnesota United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for Real Salt Lake, 34 for Minnesota United FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Real Salt Lake win band is held at 16 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Real Salt Lake 1 Minnesota United FC 1 at full time. Goals: S. Solans 82 for Real Salt Lake, J. Pereyra 89 for Minnesota United FC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City

Colorado Rapids host Sporting Kansas City in a matchday 19 clash where our model sees a draw as the most likely outcome, though the Rapids have a slight edge at home.

Colorado Rapids 38%Draw 28%Sporting Kansas City 34%

Called 1-1. Final 2-0, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Colorado plays at home where standard home advantage is factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Kansas City has dominated recent meetings, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Colorado.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.34 for Colorado Rapids and 1.27 for Sporting Kansas City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for Colorado Rapids, 34 for Sporting Kansas City and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Colorado Rapids win band is held at 16 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Colorado Rapids 2 Sporting Kansas City 0 at full time. Goals: R. Cannon 65 for Colorado Rapids, Rafael Navarro 90+5 for Colorado Rapids. K. Agyabeng of Sporting Kansas City sent off 38. M. Mosquera of Sporting Kansas City sent off 90+2.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami

Lionel Messi leads Inter Miami to Nashville SC on Matchday 19, with the hosts slight favorites in a match the model sees ending level.

Nashville SC 41%Draw 28%Inter Miami 31%

Called 1-1. Final 4-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Nashville play at home at Geodis Park, a standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Inter Miami won 1 of the last 3 meetings between these sides, with 2 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for Nashville SC and 1.20 for Inter Miami. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Nashville SC, 31 for Inter Miami and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Nashville SC win band is held at 19 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

4-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Nashville SC 4 Inter Miami 1 at full time. Goals: A. Najar 17 for Nashville SC, T. Segovia 45+3 for Inter Miami, H. Mukhtar 49 for Nashville SC, S. Surridge 56 for Nashville SC, H. Mukhtar 63 for Nashville SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sun 16 Aug

Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Houston Dynamo host Los Angeles Galaxy in a matchday 19 showdown where the home side are favored to win, though a draw looks the likeliest outcome.

Houston Dynamo 54%Draw 26%Los Angeles Galaxy 20%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Houston play at home, a standard advantage the model includes in its calculations.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Houston won 1 of the last 4 meetings, Galaxy won 0, with 3 draws, suggesting these sides often cancel each other out.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for Houston Dynamo and 0.95 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for Houston Dynamo, 20 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Houston Dynamo win band is held at 29 to 77.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Houston Dynamo 1 Los Angeles Galaxy 0 at full time. Goals: Guilherme 21 for Houston Dynamo penalty. C. Garces of Los Angeles Galaxy sent off 58. I. Aliyu of Houston Dynamo sent off 90+11.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sat 15 Aug

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution

Toronto FC host New England Revolution at BMO Field in a tight contest that the model expects to end level. Both sides have reason to fancy their chances in this Matchday 19 showdown.

Toronto FC 49%Draw 27%New England Revolution 24%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Toronto FC's home ground at BMO Field provides standard home advantage, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The last four meetings show one win each for Toronto and New England, with two draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Toronto FC and 1.06 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Toronto FC, 24 for New England Revolution and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Toronto FC win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Toronto FC 2 New England Revolution 1 at full time. Goals: W. Sands 43 for Toronto FC own goal, N. Dorsch 45+6 for Toronto FC, W. Harris 90 for New England Revolution. D. Mihailovic of Toronto FC sent off 76.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sat 15 Aug

Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

Orlando City SC host FC Cincinnati in a Matchday 19 clash where the model leans toward a home win, though the prediction confidence is low.

Orlando City SC 43%Draw 28%FC Cincinnati 29%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Orlando City play at home, a standard advantage reflected in their higher win probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Recent head-to-head is competitive. Cincinnati lead 2-1 in wins over the last 4 meetings, with 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Orlando City SC and 1.16 for FC Cincinnati. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Orlando City SC, 29 for FC Cincinnati and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Orlando City SC win band is held at 20 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Orlando City SC 1 FC Cincinnati 1 at full time. Goals: P. Bucha 23 for FC Cincinnati, T. Spicer 48 for Orlando City SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sat 15 Aug

Charlotte vs Columbus Crew

Charlotte host Columbus Crew at Bank of America Stadium in a matchday 19 clash where the home side are favored but far from certain. The model leans toward a Charlotte win, though a draw remains a genuine possibility.

Charlotte 49%Draw 27%Columbus Crew 24%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Charlotte's home ground provides standard home advantage already factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Last three meetings show one Charlotte win, one Columbus Crew win, and one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Charlotte and 1.06 for Columbus Crew. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Charlotte, 24 for Columbus Crew and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Charlotte win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Charlotte 3 Columbus Crew 1 at full time. Goals: B. Bronico 1 for Charlotte, L. Abada 9 for Charlotte penalty, C. Adams 41 for Columbus Crew, P. Biel 73 for Charlotte.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sat 15 Aug

CF Montreal vs DC United

CF Montreal host DC United on Matchday 19 with the hosts favored to win, but our model sees a draw as a real possibility in this matchup.

CF Montreal 54%Draw 26%DC United 20%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
CF Montreal hold home advantage at Saputo Stadium, a factor priced into the forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Montreal won 1 of the last 4 meetings with DC United; DC United won 0, with 3 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for CF Montreal and 0.95 for DC United. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for CF Montreal, 20 for DC United and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the CF Montreal win band is held at 29 to 77.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

CF Montreal 1 DC United 1 at full time. Goals: P. Owusu 50 for CF Montreal penalty, T. Baribo 66 for DC United.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 19Sat 15 Aug

Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls

Atlanta United FC host New York Red Bulls at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Matchday 19, with the model predicting a draw despite the hosts' home advantage.

Atlanta United FC 49%Draw 27%New York Red Bulls 24%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta play at home, a standard advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Last three meetings show one Atlanta win, one Red Bulls win, and one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Atlanta United FC and 1.06 for New York Red Bulls. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Atlanta United FC, 24 for New York Red Bulls and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Atlanta United FC win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Atlanta United FC 2 New York Red Bulls 1 at full time. Goals: E. Forsberg 6 for New York Red Bulls, T. Muyumba 69 for Atlanta United FC, F. Picault 82 for Atlanta United FC.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Thu 13 AugCanadian Open 2026

Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek

Elena Rybakina 45%Iga Swiatek 55%

Iga Swiatek won. 6-2, 6-3

The read

Elena Rybakina 45%Iga Swiatek 55%

Iga Swiatek is favoured at 55 percent against Elena Rybakina, the median implied probability across 22 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 3 odds snapshots.

Elena Rybakina win probability across 3 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 22 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Elena Rybakina at Canadian Open

Iga Swiatek at Canadian Open

Same day at Canadian Open, 12 Aug

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Thu 13 AugCanadian Open 2026

Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina

Coco Gauff 57%Elena Rybakina 43%

Elena Rybakina won. 5-7, 6-2, 6-2

The read

Coco Gauff 57%Elena Rybakina 43%

Coco Gauff is favoured at 57 percent against Elena Rybakina, the median implied probability across 20 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 4 odds snapshots.

Coco Gauff win probability across 4 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 20 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Coco Gauff at Canadian Open

Elena Rybakina at Canadian Open

Same day at Canadian Open, 12 Aug

More

Match1 / 4

ATP · Thu 13 AugCanadian Open 2026

Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien

Ben Shelton 96%Learner Tien 4%

Ben Shelton won. 6-2, 6-3

The read

Ben Shelton 96%Learner Tien 4%

Ben Shelton is favoured at 96 percent against Learner Tien, the median implied probability across 8 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 4 odds snapshots.

Ben Shelton win probability across 4 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 8 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Ben Shelton at Canadian Open

Same day at Canadian Open, 12 Aug

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Thu 13 AugCanadian Open 2026

Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek

Elina Svitolina 54%Iga Swiatek 46%

Iga Swiatek won. 6-3, 1-6, 6-3

The read

Elina Svitolina 54%Iga Swiatek 46%

Elina Svitolina is favoured at 58 percent against Amanda Anisimova, the median implied probability across 21 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 8 odds snapshots.

Amanda Anisimova win probability across 8 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 21 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Amanda Anisimova at Canadian Open

Elina Svitolina at Canadian Open

Same day at Canadian Open, 8 Aug

More

Match1 / 4

WTA · Sat 8 AugCanadian Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

Aryna Sabalenka 67%Ekaterina Alexandrova 33%

Ekaterina Alexandrova won. 7-6, 4-6, 6-4

The read

Aryna Sabalenka 67%Ekaterina Alexandrova 33%

Aryna Sabalenka is favoured at 67 percent against Ekaterina Alexandrova, the median implied probability across 16 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 8 odds snapshots.

Aryna Sabalenka win probability across 8 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 16 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Aryna Sabalenka at Canadian Open

Same day at Canadian Open, 7 Aug

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 3Sat 8 Aug

New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo

New England Revolution host Houston Dynamo at Gillette Stadium looking to avoid a repeat of their mixed recent form. The model leans toward a draw in this early-season MLS clash.

New England Revolution 43%Draw 28%Houston Dynamo 29%

Called 1-1. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
New England Revolution play at home at Gillette Stadium, a standard home advantage the model prices in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Across their last 4 meetings, New England Revolution won 1, Houston Dynamo won 2, with 1 drawn.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for New England Revolution and 1.16 for Houston Dynamo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for New England Revolution, 29 for Houston Dynamo and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New England Revolution win band is held at 20 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 1-1

More

Match1 / 4

ATP · Wed 5 AugCanadian Open 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor

Alexander Zverev 84%Tallon Griekspoor 16%

Tallon Griekspoor won. 6-7, 6-2, 6-4

Alexandra Eala 21%Jessica Pegula 79%

Jessica Pegula is favoured at 79 percent against Alexandra Eala, the median implied probability across 14 bookmakers with each margin removed, tracked over 4 odds snapshots.

Alexandra Eala win probability across 4 odds snapshots

Source: head to head markets from 14 bookmakers, margins removed, combined as the median. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jessica Pegula at Washington Open

Same day at Washington Open, 1 Aug

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders

Portland Timbers host Seattle Sounders at Providence Park on Matchday 18, with the model leaning toward a home win but backing a draw as a real threat in a closely matched contest.

Portland Timbers 49%Draw 27%Seattle Sounders 24%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Portland enjoy standard home advantage at Providence Park, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Split honours in their last four meetings: one Portland win, one Seattle win, two draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Portland Timbers and 1.06 for Seattle Sounders. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Portland Timbers, 24 for Seattle Sounders and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portland Timbers win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Portland Timbers 2 Seattle Sounders 1 at full time. Goals: K. Kossa-Rienzi 27 for Seattle Sounders, K. Kelsy 41 for Portland Timbers, B. Bye 82 for Portland Timbers.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

Los Angeles Galaxy vs FC Dallas

Los Angeles Galaxy host FC Dallas on matchday 18 with the model leaning slightly toward the home side, though a draw looks plausible.

Los Angeles Galaxy 43%Draw 28%FC Dallas 29%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0, Right call.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Home advantage at Dignity Health Sports Park is priced into Galaxy's forecast probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last four meetings show Galaxy 1 win, Dallas 2 wins, 1 draw, indicating no dominant pattern.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.16 for FC Dallas. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Los Angeles Galaxy, 29 for FC Dallas and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Los Angeles Galaxy win band is held at 20 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

Los Angeles Galaxy 0 FC Dallas 0 at full time.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

Colorado Rapids vs Austin

Colorado Rapids host Austin on Matchday 18 of the 2026 MLS season, with our model leaning toward a draw at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

Colorado Rapids 41%Draw 28%Austin 31%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Colorado gain a standard home advantage at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Austin have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides, suggesting they have form in the matchup despite playing away.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for Colorado Rapids and 1.20 for Austin. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Colorado Rapids, 31 for Austin and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Colorado Rapids win band is held at 19 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Colorado Rapids 1 Austin 0 at full time. Goals: Rafael Navarro 90+4 for Colorado Rapids penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake

St. Louis City host Real Salt Lake at CITYPARK on Matchday 18, and our model leans toward a draw despite the home side's slight edge in possession metrics.

St. Louis City 41%Draw 28%Real Salt Lake 31%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
St. Louis City's home ground provides typical home advantage, reflected in their 41 percent win probability.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
One Salt Lake win and two draws across the last three meetings suggest competitive parity without clear dominance.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for St. Louis City and 1.20 for Real Salt Lake. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for St. Louis City, 31 for Real Salt Lake and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the St. Louis City win band is held at 19 to 66.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

St. Louis City 1 Real Salt Lake 1 at full time. Goals: S. Solans 60 for Real Salt Lake, M. Hartel 73 for St. Louis City.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo

Sporting Kansas City face Houston Dynamo at home on Matchday 18 in a tight contest the model leans toward the hosts, though the data confidence is low.

Sporting Kansas City 49%Draw 27%Houston Dynamo 24%

Called 1-1. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Sporting Kansas City's home ground at Children's Mercy Park provides standard home advantage factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Last three meetings: one Sporting Kansas City win, one Houston Dynamo win, one draw. No dominant pattern.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.06 for Houston Dynamo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Sporting Kansas City, 24 for Houston Dynamo and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Sporting Kansas City win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Sporting Kansas City 0 Houston Dynamo 2 at full time. Goals: Guilherme 55 for Houston Dynamo, A. Bouzat 71 for Houston Dynamo. L. Johnsen of Sporting Kansas City sent off 45.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego

Minnesota United FC host San Diego in a Matchday 18 clash at Allianz Field. The model leans slightly toward the hosts, but this one feels genuinely uncertain.

Minnesota United FC 49%Draw 27%San Diego 24%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Minnesota United FC play at home, where Allianz Field provides standard home advantage already factored into the forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Minnesota United FC and San Diego have met four times recently with an even split: 2 wins apiece and no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for Minnesota United FC and 1.06 for San Diego. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Minnesota United FC, 24 for San Diego and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Minnesota United FC win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Minnesota United FC 1 San Diego 1 at full time. Goals: T. Chancalay 3 for Minnesota United FC, A. Dreyer 64 for San Diego penalty.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sun 2 Aug

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte

Robert Lewandowski arrives in Chicago just in time for a home clash against Charlotte. The Fire are favored, but this forecast comes with real uncertainty.

Chicago Fire 56%Draw 25%Charlotte 19%

Called 1-1. Final 2-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Chicago Fire benefit from playing at Soldier Field, a standard home advantage the model incorporates.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Chicago Fire won 2 of their last 3 meetings with Charlotte, with Charlotte claiming 1 win and no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.74 for Chicago Fire and 0.92 for Charlotte. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 56 for Chicago Fire, 19 for Charlotte and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Chicago Fire win band is held at 31 to 79.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Chicago Fire 2 Charlotte 1 at full time. Goals: P. Biel 18 for Charlotte, R. Lewandowski 20 for Chicago Fire, R. Lewandowski 68 for Chicago Fire.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FC

Thomas Muller and the Vancouver Whitecaps host Son Heung-min and Los Angeles FC on Matchday 18, with the home side favored to take the points despite a low-confidence forecast.

Vancouver Whitecaps 56%Draw 25%Los Angeles FC 19%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Vancouver plays at home, a standard advantage built into the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Over their last three meetings, Vancouver has won once and drawn twice, giving them the edge in recent history.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.74 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.92 for Los Angeles FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 56 for Vancouver Whitecaps, 19 for Los Angeles FC and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Vancouver Whitecaps win band is held at 31 to 79.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United FC on Matchday 18 of MLS 2026, with the hosts favored to take all three points at Subaru Park.

Philadelphia Union 54%Draw 26%Atlanta United FC 20%

Called 1-1. Final 3-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia benefit from home advantage at Subaru Park, a factor built into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Head to head across the last four meetings shows Philadelphia with two wins, Atlanta with one, and one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for Philadelphia Union and 0.95 for Atlanta United FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for Philadelphia Union, 20 for Atlanta United FC and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Philadelphia Union win band is held at 29 to 77.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC

New York Red Bulls host Orlando City SC in MLS Matchday 18 at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Our model backs the Red Bulls to control this one.

New York Red Bulls 60%Draw 24%Orlando City SC 16%

Called 1-0. Final 3-2, Right call.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
New York Red Bulls play at home at Sports Illustrated Stadium, a standard home advantage the model prices in.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Across their last 4 meetings, New York Red Bulls won 2, Orlando City SC won 0, with 2 drawn.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.83 for New York Red Bulls and 0.85 for Orlando City SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 60 for New York Red Bulls, 16 for Orlando City SC and 24 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York Red Bulls win band is held at 34 to 82.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 1-0

New York Red Bulls 3 Orlando City SC 2 at full time. Goals: M. Jimenez 23 for New York Red Bulls, E. Forsberg 43 for New York Red Bulls, T. Spicer 52 for Orlando City SC, M. Jimenez 60 for New York Red Bulls, G. Dorsey 63 for Orlando City SC.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew

Lionel Messi and Inter Miami host Columbus Crew in Fort Lauderdale on Matchday 18, with the home side heavily favored to extend their perfect head-to-head record.

Inter Miami 70%Draw 20%Columbus Crew 10%

Called 2-0. Final 2-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Inter Miami enjoy home advantage at Nu Stadium, a factor already reflected in the model's assessment.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Miami have won all three of their last meetings with Columbus with no losses, a strong historical edge for the home side.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.07 for Inter Miami and 0.64 for Columbus Crew. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 70 for Inter Miami, 10 for Columbus Crew and 20 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Inter Miami win band is held at 45 to 89.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Missed · we picked 2-0

Inter Miami 2 Columbus Crew 2 at full time. Goals: L. Suarez 16 for Inter Miami, Casemiro 34 for Columbus Crew own goal, N. Allen 45+5 for Inter Miami, B. Mendez 84 for Columbus Crew.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

FC Cincinnati host San Jose Earthquakes on Matchday 18 in a match where the home side are favoured to win, though the model expects a tight contest.

FC Cincinnati 56%Draw 25%San Jose Earthquakes 19%

Called 1-1. Final 4-2, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
FC Cincinnati benefit from home advantage at TQL Stadium, reflected in the model's probability weighting.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
Cincinnati have won 2 of the last 3 meetings against San Jose, establishing a historical edge in this fixture.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.74 for FC Cincinnati and 0.92 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 56 for FC Cincinnati, 19 for San Jose Earthquakes and 25 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the FC Cincinnati win band is held at 31 to 79.

2.4k184

What happened

4-2Missed · we picked 1-1

FC Cincinnati 4 San Jose Earthquakes 2 at full time. Goals: D. Munie 26 for San Jose Earthquakes, B. J. Ramirez Leon 34 for FC Cincinnati, T. Werner 57 for San Jose Earthquakes, T. Barlow 80 for FC Cincinnati, Evander 82 for FC Cincinnati, Unknown 90+6 for FC Cincinnati.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

DC United vs Nashville SC

DC United host Nashville SC at Audi Field in a Matchday 18 fixture that our model sees as a coin flip, predicting a 1-1 draw.

DC United 38%Draw 28%Nashville SC 34%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
DC United's home game at Audi Field provides standard home advantage, factored into the model.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Nashville SC won 2 of the last 4 meetings; DC United won 0, with 2 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.34 for DC United and 1.27 for Nashville SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for DC United, 34 for Nashville SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the DC United win band is held at 16 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

DC United 2 Nashville SC 2 at full time. Goals: S. Surridge 32 for Nashville SC penalty, S. Mohammed 40 for Nashville SC, S. Hefti 56 for DC United, T. Baribo 77 for DC United.

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Sat 1 Aug

CF Montreal vs New England Revolution

CF Montreal host New England Revolution on Matchday 18 at Saputo Stadium in a match our model expects to end level.

CF Montreal 49%Draw 27%New England Revolution 24%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
Montreal's home advantage at Saputo Stadium is factored into the forecast.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The teams have won two apiece in their last four meetings with no draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.58 for CF Montreal and 1.06 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for CF Montreal, 24 for New England Revolution and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the CF Montreal win band is held at 24 to 73.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

More

Forecast1 / 4

Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 18Fri 31 Jul

New York City FC vs Toronto FC

New York City FC are strong favorites to beat Toronto FC at home on Matchday 18. The model backs NYCFC to win with a 70 percent probability.

New York City FC 70%Draw 20%Toronto FC 10%

Called 2-0. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Venue, travel and rest
NYCFC play at home at Yankee Stadium, providing standard home advantage.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
NYCFC won their last three meetings against Toronto with no draws or losses.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

2 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.07 for New York City FC and 0.64 for Toronto FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 70 for New York City FC, 10 for Toronto FC and 20 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.11 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 6 of the eight signals (recent form, fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 45 to 89.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

Called 2-1. Final 1-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form
Both reached the final as the form sides of their half, Spain past France in the semi, Argentina past England, neither losing across the knockout rounds.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Two of the top three sides in the world, Argentina the reigning champions, Spain the reigning European champions, with barely a place between them.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Spain hold one of the most valuable squads at the finals through their midfield depth, Argentina a shade lower on paper but built around proven winners.
Player level by league and club
Champions League talent throughout both sides, Spain controlling games through possession, Argentina carrying the tournament know how of their 2022 core.
Availability and injuries
Final lineups were not confirmed when the forecast was built, so availability is treated as incomplete and the win band held wide.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral final at MetLife Stadium with equal rest, so neither side carries a physical edge into kickoff.
Head to head
A storied but infrequent recent rivalry, so the head to head enters the model only lightly and near neutral.
Stakes and motivation
The biggest prize in the sport, Spain chasing a first World Cup since 2010, Argentina chasing back to back titles.

The referee appointment for the final had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.5 for Spain and 1.2 for Argentina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Spain, 32 for a draw and 27 for Argentina, with 2-1 the single most likely decisive scoreline. Data quality is 0.82 with final lineups still to be named, so the Spain win band sits at 31 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Right call · we picked 2-1

Spain advanced after extra time.

Spain 1 Argentina 0 after extra time. Goals: Ferrán Torres 106 for Spain. Spain advanced after extra time.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · 3rd Place FinalSat 18 Jul

France vs England

France and England contest the World Cup third place playoff on neutral ground. Our model gives France a slight edge at 38% to win, with the game most likely settling at 1-0.

France 38%Draw 28%England 34%

Called 1-0. Final 4-6, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
France's last 5 tracked results show four wins before a loss to Spain; England also won four straight before falling to Argentina.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
France ranked 3rd, England 4th in the June 2026 FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, supporting a marginal France advantage.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral venue with both teams on comparable rest removes home advantage as a factor.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
France won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides, with 1 draw and 0 losses for England.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.36 for France and 1.25 for England. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for France, 34 for England and 28 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the France win band is held at 23 to 55.

2.4k184

What happened

4-6Missed · we picked 1-0

England advanced.

France 4 England 6 at full time. Goals: D. Rice 3 for England, E. Konsa 18 for England, B. Saka 37 for England, B. Saka 45+1 for England, K. Mbappe 48 for France, B. Barcola 54 for France, K. Mbappe 66 for France, B. Saka 87 for England penalty, O. Dembele 90+6 for France, J. Bellingham 90+8 for England. England advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-finalsWed 15 Jul

England vs Argentina

England vs Argentina prediction: a heavyweight World Cup semi-final in Atlanta, the reigning champions against England. The model favours Argentina at 43 percent and calls a 1-2.

England 28%Draw 29%Argentina 43%

Called 1-2. Final 1-2, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form
Argentina ground past Switzerland after extra time, England edged Norway the same way, both winning ugly when it mattered rather than cruising.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Argentina, the reigning world champions, sit at or near the top of the ranking, with England a little behind but firmly among the elite.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
England carry one of the highest squad values at the finals, Argentina a shade lower on paper but with a spine of proven winners.
Player level by league and club
Both are stocked with Champions League talent, Argentina led by the tournament know how of their 2022 core, England by a deep, in form attack.
Availability and injuries
Semi-final lineups are not yet named, so availability is treated as incomplete and the win band is held wide.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral semi-final in Atlanta with comparable rest, so neither side carries a meaningful physical edge into kickoff.
Head to head
A charged history at World Cups, but recent meetings are few, so the head to head enters the model only lightly.
Stakes and motivation
One win from a World Cup final for both, Argentina chasing back to back titles, England chasing a first since 1966.

The referee appointment for this semi-final had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.05 for England and 1.60 for Argentina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for England, 29 for a draw and 43 for Argentina, with 1-2 the single most likely decisive scoreline. Data quality is 0.80 with semi-final lineups still to be named, so the England win band sits at 18 to 38.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Hit · we picked 1-2

Argentina advanced.

Argentina beat England 2-1 in the semi-final to set up a final against Spain. The reigning champions found a way in exactly the kind of tight knockout they have made their own, and move within one win of back to back titles. We tipped Argentina to advance and called the 1-2 scoreline exactly.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-finalsTue 14 Jul

France vs Spain

France vs Spain prediction: two of the pre-tournament favourites collide in the World Cup semi-final in Dallas. The model leans a fraction to Spain at 40 percent and calls a 1-2.

France 32%Draw 28%Spain 40%

Called 1-2. Final 0-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form
Both arrive unbeaten in the knockouts, France past Morocco 2-0, Spain past Belgium 2-1, each looking the more assured the deeper the tournament has run.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Spain and France sit inside the top three of the world ranking, separated by very little, which is why the model keeps the gap slim.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Two of the most valuable squads at the finals, Spain deep through midfield, France carrying elite pace and finishing in the wide areas.
Player level by league and club
Champions League regulars throughout both sides, so individual quality barely separates them and the tie hinges on control of midfield.
Availability and injuries
Semi-final lineups are not yet named, so availability is treated as incomplete and the win band is held wide.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral semi-final in Dallas with comparable rest, so no side carries a meaningful physical edge into kickoff.
Head to head
A long and close recent rivalry with little between them, so the head to head enters the model as near neutral.
Stakes and motivation
A World Cup final is one win away for both, the ceiling of the tournament, so motivation is maximal on each side.

The referee appointment for this semi-final had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.15 for France and 1.55 for Spain. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for France, 28 for a draw and 40 for Spain, with 1-2 the single most likely decisive scoreline. Data quality is 0.80 with semi-final lineups still to be named, so the France win band sits at 22 to 42.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Right call · we picked 1-2

Spain advanced.

Spain beat France 2-0 in the semi-final to reach the World Cup final. Control in midfield told in the end, and Spain saw the game out without the late scare their route to the final had threatened. We tipped Spain to advance, and that call landed.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Sun 12 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner

Alexander Zverev 3%Jannik Sinner 97%

Jannik Sinner won. 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-4

The read

Alexander Zverev 3%Jannik Sinner 97%

Jannik Sinner is favoured at 97 percent against Alexander Zverev, the implied probability from the Winamax (DE) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Winamax (DE) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon

Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsSun 12 Jul

Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina face Switzerland in a World Cup quarter-final where the gap in ranking and recent form suggests a clear favourite, yet knockout football always carries risk.

Argentina 49%Draw 27%Switzerland 24%

Called 2-1. Final 3-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Argentina won all five recent matches including commanding victories. Switzerland drew twice and won three, showing less consistency.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina ranked 1st globally, Switzerland 19th as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground at Arrowhead Stadium with comparable rest for both teams.
Head to head (API-Football, last 1)
Argentina won the sole recent meeting between these sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.59 for Argentina and 1.05 for Switzerland. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Argentina, 24 for Switzerland and 27 for a draw, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Argentina win band is held at 33 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Right call · we picked 2-1

Argentina advanced after extra time.

Argentina 3 Switzerland 1 after extra time. Goals: A. Mac Allister 10 for Argentina, D. Ndoye 67 for Switzerland, J. Alvarez 112 for Argentina, L. Martinez 120+1 for Argentina. B. Embolo of Switzerland sent off 72. Argentina advanced after extra time.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsSat 11 Jul

Norway vs England

England are favored to beat Norway in this World Cup quarter-final, but the prediction comes with notable uncertainty. Our model gives England a 49% chance to win, though a draw remains very possible at 27%.

Norway 24%Draw 27%England 49%

Called 1-2. Final 1-2, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Norway have won four of their last five games but suffered a heavy loss to France. England have also won four of five with one draw, showing slightly more control.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
England ranked 4th, Norway 32nd, a significant gap favoring the Three Lions.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral venue in Miami with comparable rest for both sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.04 for Norway and 1.60 for England. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 24 for Norway, 49 for England and 27 for a draw, with 1-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Norway win band is held at 12 to 39.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Hit · we picked 1-2

England advanced after extra time.

Norway 1 England 2 after extra time. Goals: A. Schjelderup 36 for Norway, J. Bellingham 45+2 for England, J. Bellingham 93 for England. England advanced after extra time.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Sat 11 JulWimbledon 2026

Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova

Karolina Muchova 58%Linda Noskova 42%

Linda Noskova won. 6-2, 5-7, 6-3

The read

Karolina Muchova 58%Linda Noskova 42%

Karolina Muchova is favoured at 58 percent against Linda Noskova, the implied probability from the Betfair head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betfair head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Karolina Muchova at Wimbledon

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsFri 10 Jul

Spain vs Belgium

Spain and Belgium meet in a World Cup quarter-final at SoFi Stadium with the Spanish favorites, though this knockout tie remains genuinely competitive.

Spain 40%Draw 28%Belgium 32%

Called 1-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Spain won 3 of last 5, including 1-0 vs Portugal and 4-0 vs Saudi Arabia. Belgium won 4 of last 5, with 5-1 vs New Zealand and 4-1 vs USA.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Spain ranked 2nd globally, Belgium 9th as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles is neutral, both teams on comparable rest.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.40 for Spain and 1.22 for Belgium. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for Spain, 32 for Belgium and 28 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Spain win band is held at 24 to 57.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 1-0

Spain advanced.

Spain 2 Belgium 1 at full time. Goals: F. Ruiz 30 for Spain, C. De Ketelaere 41 for Belgium, M. Merino 88 for Spain. Spain advanced.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Fri 10 JulWimbledon 2026

Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic

Jannik Sinner 80%Novak Djokovic 20%

Jannik Sinner won. 6-4, 6-4, 6-4

The read

Jannik Sinner 80%Novak Djokovic 20%

Jannik Sinner is favoured at 80 percent against Novak Djokovic, the implied probability from the Unibet (NL) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (NL) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 9 Jul

More

Match1 / 4

ATP · Fri 10 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fery

Alexander Zverev 85%Arthur Fery 15%

Alexander Zverev won. 7-6, 6-2, 6-4

The read

Alexander Zverev 85%Arthur Fery 15%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 85 percent against Arthur Fery, the implied probability from the Unibet (SE) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (SE) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 9 Jul

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsThu 9 Jul

France vs Morocco

France face Morocco in a World Cup quarter-final where the ranking gap suggests a French advantage, but Morocco's recent form and knockout football unpredictability keep this competitive.

France 44%Draw 28%Morocco 28%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
France won their last four matches 3-1, 3-0, 4-1, and 3-0. Morocco drew twice (1-1 each) and won twice (1-0 and 4-2).
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
France ranked 3rd globally, Morocco ranked 7th, as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground at Gillette Stadium in Boston with comparable rest for both teams.
Head to head (API-Football, last 1)
France won their most recent meeting; no other head-to-head context available.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.49 for France and 1.13 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 44 for France, 28 for Morocco and 28 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the France win band is held at 29 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

France advanced.

Same day at Wimbledon, 7 Jul

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Tue 7 Jul

Switzerland vs Colombia

Switzerland and Colombia meet in the Round of 16 with the forecast leaning slightly toward the South Americans, though this is a tight contest that could easily go either way.

Switzerland 34%Draw 28%Colombia 38%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0 (Switzerland on pens), Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Switzerland 3W1D in last four games; Colombia 3W1D over same period.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Colombia ranked 13th, Switzerland 19th as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground with comparable rest for both sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for Switzerland and 1.34 for Colombia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Switzerland, 38 for Colombia and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Switzerland win band is held at 19 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

Switzerland advanced on penalties (4-3).

Switzerland 0 Colombia 0 after extra time. Goals: J. Quintero 120+1 for Colombia penalty, G. Xhaka 120+1 for Switzerland penalty, Z. Amdouni 120+2 for Switzerland penalty, J. Campaz 120+3 for Colombia penalty, C. Itten 120+4 for Switzerland penalty, L. Diaz 120+5 for Colombia penalty, R. Vargas 120+5 for Switzerland penalty. Switzerland won the penalty shootout 4-3 to advance.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic

Felix Auger-Aliassime 47%Novak Djokovic 53%

Novak Djokovic won. 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-7, 7-6

The read

Felix Auger-Aliassime 47%Novak Djokovic 53%

Novak Djokovic is favoured at 53 percent against Felix Auger-Aliassime, the implied probability from the Betsson head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betsson head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Tue 7 Jul

Argentina vs Egypt

Argentina face Egypt in a Round of 16 knockout tie at the 2026 World Cup. Our model leans toward Argentina to progress, but a draw in normal time is far from unlikely.

Argentina 54%Draw 26%Egypt 20%

Called 1-1. Final 3-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Argentina have won all four recent matches; Egypt have drawn three of four with one win, showing contrasting offensive momentum.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina ranked 1st globally; Egypt 29th, a significant gap in established quality.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground means no home advantage for either side and comparable rest conditions going in.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for Argentina and 0.95 for Egypt. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for Argentina, 20 for Egypt and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Argentina win band is held at 36 to 71.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Argentina advanced.

Argentina 3 Egypt 2 at full time. Goals: Y. Ibrahim 15 for Egypt, M. Ziko 67 for Egypt, C. Romero 79 for Argentina, L. Messi 83 for Argentina, E. Fernandez 90+2 for Argentina. Argentina advanced.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka

Karolina Muchova 45%Naomi Osaka 55%

Karolina Muchova won. 7-6, 6-4

The read

Karolina Muchova 45%Naomi Osaka 55%

Naomi Osaka is favoured at 55 percent against Karolina Muchova, the implied probability from the Tipico head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Tipico head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Karolina Muchova at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

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Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula

Coco Gauff 39%Jessica Pegula 61%

Coco Gauff won. 4-6, 6-3, 6-3

The read

Coco Gauff 39%Jessica Pegula 61%

Jessica Pegula is favoured at 61 percent against Coco Gauff, the implied probability from the 1xBet head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: 1xBet head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Coco Gauff at Wimbledon

Jessica Pegula at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

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Match1 / 4

ATP · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jannik Sinner

Jan-Lennard Struff 8%Jannik Sinner 92%

Jannik Sinner won. 7-5, 7-6, 6-3

The read

Jan-Lennard Struff 8%Jannik Sinner 92%

Jannik Sinner is favoured at 92 percent against Jan-Lennard Struff, the implied probability from the Betsson head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betsson head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

More

Match1 / 4

ATP · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Jiri Lehecka

Alexander Zverev 93%Jiri Lehecka 7%

Alexander Zverev won. 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6

The read

Alexander Zverev 93%Jiri Lehecka 7%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 93 percent against Jiri Lehecka, the implied probability from the Betfair head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betfair head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Tue 7 Jul

USA vs Belgium

USA faces Belgium in a World Cup Round of 16 match where the data leans toward the higher-ranked Europeans, but a draw into extra time is firmly in play.

USA 29%Draw 28%Belgium 43%

Called 1-1. Final 1-4, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
USA won 4-1 vs Paraguay and 2-0 vs Australia but lost 2-3 vs Türkiye; Belgium drew 1-1 vs Egypt and 0-0 vs Iran, then beat New Zealand 5-1 and Senegal 3-2.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Belgium ranked 9th globally, USA ranked 17th as of June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Lumen Field is neutral, offering no home advantage to either side.
Head to head (API-Football, last 2)
Belgium won both of the last two meetings between these nations.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.16 for USA and 1.46 for Belgium. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 29 for USA, 43 for Belgium and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the USA win band is held at 16 to 45.

2.4k184

What happened

1-4Missed · we picked 1-1

Belgium advanced.

USA 1 Belgium 4 at full time. Goals: C. De Ketelaere 9 for Belgium, M. Tillman 31 for USA, C. De Ketelaere 33 for Belgium, H. Vanaken 57 for Belgium, R. Lukaku 90+3 for Belgium. Belgium advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Mon 6 Jul

Portugal vs Spain

Portugal face Spain in a Round of 16 clash on July 6th, with our model backing Spain to progress despite an expected tight contest.

Portugal 32%Draw 28%Spain 40%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Portugal: mixed results with two draws and two wins. Spain: three wins and one draw, showing more consistent control.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Portugal ranked 5th, Spain ranked 2nd as of June 11 2026; lower ranking indicates stronger team.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground with comparable rest for both teams.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last four meetings: 1 Spanish win, 3 draws, 0 Portuguese wins.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.22 for Portugal and 1.39 for Spain. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for Portugal, 40 for Spain and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portugal win band is held at 18 to 48.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Spain advanced.

Portugal 0 Spain 1 at full time. Goals: M. Merino 90+1 for Spain. Spain advanced.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Mon 6 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz

Alexander Bublik 33%Taylor Fritz 67%

Taylor Fritz won. 7-6, 6-4, 6-4

The read

Alexander Bublik 33%Taylor Fritz 67%

Taylor Fritz is favoured at 67 percent against Alexander Bublik, the implied probability from the Matchbook head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Matchbook head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 5 Jul

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Match1 / 4

ATP · Mon 6 JulWimbledon 2026

Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli

Alex de Minaur 77%Flavio Cobolli 23%

Flavio Cobolli won. 7-5, 7-6, 6-3

The read

Alex de Minaur 77%Flavio Cobolli 23%

Alex de Minaur is favoured at 77 percent against Flavio Cobolli, the implied probability from the Unibet (FR) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (FR) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alex de Minaur at Wimbledon

Flavio Cobolli at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 5 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Mon 6 Jul

Mexico vs England

Mexico host England in a Round of 16 knockout tie that our model sees as genuinely tight, with England slight favorites to advance despite Mexico's home advantage.

Mexico 34%Draw 28%England 38%

Called 1-1. Final 2-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Mexico won their last four matches against South Africa, South Korea, Czechia and Ecuador. England won three of their last four, with one draw against Ghana.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
England ranked 4th in the world as of June 2026, Mexico ranked 14th, making England the higher-seeded team.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral venue in Mexico City with comparable rest for both teams.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.26 for Mexico and 1.35 for England. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Mexico, 38 for England and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Mexico win band is held at 19 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

2-3Missed · we picked 1-1

England advanced.

Mexico 2 England 3 at full time. Goals: J. Bellingham 36 for England, J. Bellingham 38 for England, J. Quinones 42 for Mexico, H. Kane 60 for England penalty, R. Jimenez 69 for Mexico penalty. J. Quansah of England sent off 54. England advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Sun 5 Jul

Brazil vs Norway

Brazil face Norway in a Round of 16 clash that our model sees as genuinely competitive, despite the hosts' ranking advantage. We're forecasting a draw after 90 minutes, with Brazil favored to advance.

Brazil 50%Draw 27%Norway 23%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Brazil won three of their last four tracked games including consecutive 3-0 victories; Norway showed inconsistency with a 4-1 loss to France but also wins against Iraq, Senegal and Ivory Coast.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil ranked 6th globally gives them a clear quality edge over Norway at 32nd in the official June 2026 FIFA ranking.
Venue, travel and rest
MetLife Stadium is neutral ground with comparable rest for both teams.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.61 for Brazil and 1.04 for Norway. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for Brazil, 23 for Norway and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Brazil win band is held at 32 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Norway advanced.

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Sat 4 Jul

Colombia vs Ghana

Colombia vs Ghana prediction: a Luis Diaz led Colombia against a Thomas Partey anchored Ghana. The model gives Colombia 55 percent and tips Colombia to go through.

Colombia 55%Draw 26%Ghana 19%

Called 1-0. Final 1-0, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Colombia won Group K, Ghana reached the last 32 as a best third out of Group L.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Colombia sit clearly higher in the ranking, Ghana a step below.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Colombia hold a squad value edge, Ghana a Premier League flavoured core.
Player level by league and club
Colombia carry Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez, Ghana lean on Thomas Partey and Mohammed Kudus.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Kansas City with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chase a deep run, Colombia the favourites on quality.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.73 for Colombia and 0.93 for Ghana. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 55 for Colombia, 26 for a draw and 19 for Ghana, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Colombia win band sits at 45 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Hit · we picked 1-0

Colombia advanced.

Colombia 1 Ghana 0 at full time. Goals: J. Arias 14 for Colombia. Colombia advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Fri 3 Jul

Argentina vs Cabo Verde

Argentina vs Cabo Verde prediction: the reigning world champions against the smallest nation ever to reach the knockouts. The model gives Argentina 77 percent and calls a 2-0.

Argentina 77%Draw 17%Cabo Verde 6%

Called 2-0. Final 3-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina won Group J with a perfect record, Cabo Verde reached the last 32 in a stunning debut.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Argentina are the world number one, Cabo Verde far down the order but fearless.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Cabo Verde one of the smallest.
Player level by league and club
Argentina carry Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, Cabo Verde a spirited Europe based base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Miami where Argentina will enjoy strong support.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Argentina chase back to back titles, Cabo Verde play with house money.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.24 for Argentina and 0.49 for Cabo Verde. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 77 for Argentina, 17 for a draw and 6 for Cabo Verde, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Argentina win band sits at 68 to 85.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 2-0

Argentina advanced after extra time.

Argentina 3 Cabo Verde 2 after extra time. Goals: L. Messi 29 for Argentina, D. Duarte 59 for Cape Verde Islands, L. Martinez 92 for Argentina, S. Lopes Cabral 103 for Cape Verde Islands, D. Borges 111 for Argentina own goal. Argentina advanced after extra time.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Fri 3 JulWimbledon 2026

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng

Felix Auger-Aliassime 82%Michael Zheng 18%

Felix Auger-Aliassime won. 7-6, 6-2, 6-1

The read

Felix Auger-Aliassime 82%Michael Zheng 18%

Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured at 82 percent against Michael Zheng, the implied probability from the Codere (IT) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Codere (IT) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 2 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Fri 3 Jul

Australia vs Egypt

Australia vs Egypt prediction: a stubborn Socceroos side against Mohamed Salah and Egypt. The model gives Egypt 42 percent and tips Egypt to go through.

Australia 30%Draw 28%Egypt 42%

Called 0-1. Final 1-1 (Egypt on pens), Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Australia reached the last 32 as runners up in Group D, Egypt as runners up in Group G.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Egypt marginally higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Egypt hold a squad value edge, led by their talisman, Australia a hard working collective.
Player level by league and club
Egypt build around Mohamed Salah, Australia on organisation and running.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
The last tie of the round, with a quarterfinal place at stake.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.18 for Australia and 1.44 for Egypt. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 30 for Australia, 28 for a draw and 42 for Egypt, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Australia win band sits at 21 to 40.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Egypt advanced on penalties (4-2).

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Fri 3 Jul

Switzerland vs Algeria

Switzerland vs Algeria prediction: a settled Switzerland against Riyad Mahrez and Algeria. The model gives Switzerland 45 percent and tips Switzerland to go through.

Switzerland 45%Draw 28%Algeria 27%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Switzerland won Group B, Algeria reached the last 32 as a best third after a wild 3-3 with Austria.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Switzerland sit higher in the ranking, Algeria a credible side rather than a minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Switzerland hold a squad value edge, Algeria a Europe based core.
Player level by league and club
Switzerland build around Granit Xhaka and Manuel Akanji, Algeria around Riyad Mahrez.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Vancouver with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Switzerland the steadier side, Algeria carrying attacking threat.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.52 for Switzerland and 1.11 for Algeria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 45 for Switzerland, 28 for a draw and 27 for Algeria, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Switzerland win band sits at 35 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

Switzerland advanced.

Switzerland 2 Algeria 0 at full time. Goals: Breel Embolo 10 for Switzerland, Dan Ndoye 46 for Switzerland. Switzerland advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Thu 2 Jul

Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal vs Croatia prediction: Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal against a 40 year old Luka Modric. The model gives Portugal 55 percent and tips Portugal to go through.

Portugal 55%Draw 25%Croatia 20%

Called 1-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Portugal finished second in Group K, Croatia second in Group L, two seasoned sides in the knockouts.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Portugal are ranked inside the top five, Croatia a little lower but experienced.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Portugal field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Croatia a more veteran group.
Player level by league and club
Portugal carry Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao, Croatia a spine around Luka Modric.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Toronto with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Two heavyweight names meet, with a quarterfinal at stake.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.72 for Portugal and 0.94 for Croatia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 55 for Portugal, 25 for a draw and 20 for Croatia, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Portugal win band sits at 44 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 1-0

Portugal advanced.

Portugal 2 Croatia 1 at full time. Goals: I. Perisic 53 for Croatia, C. Ronaldo 68 for Portugal penalty, G. Ramos 90+4 for Portugal. Portugal advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Thu 2 Jul

Spain vs Austria

Spain vs Austria prediction: the reigning European champions against a well drilled Austria. The model gives Spain 65 percent and calls a 2-0.

Spain 65%Draw 22%Austria 13%

Called 2-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Spain won Group H with room to spare, Austria reached the last 32 as runners up in a wild Group J.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Spain are ranked among the very top sides, Austria solidly mid table.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Spain field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Austria a well organised group.
Player level by league and club
Spain carry a deep elite core, Austria lean on David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer and Marko Arnautovic.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in the Los Angeles area with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Spain chase a deep run, Austria arrive on a high after their group heroics.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.96 for Spain and 0.74 for Austria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Spain, 22 for a draw and 13 for Austria, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Spain win band sits at 55 to 75.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Spain advanced.

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

Belgium vs Senegal

Belgium vs Senegal prediction: Kevin De Bruyne's Belgium against a deep, athletic Senegal. The model gives Belgium 43 percent and tips Belgium to go through.

Belgium 43%Draw 28%Senegal 29%

Called 1-0. Final 3-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Belgium won Group G, Senegal reached the last 32 as a best third after a strong group.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Belgium sit a little higher in the ranking, Senegal close behind.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Belgium hold a squad value edge, Senegal a deep, athletic group.
Player level by league and club
Belgium carry Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, Senegal a Premier League heavy core.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Seattle with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A heavyweight tie, both with the talent for a deep run.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Belgium and 1.17 for Senegal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Belgium, 28 for a draw and 29 for Senegal, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Belgium win band sits at 33 to 53.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 1-0

Belgium advanced after extra time.

Belgium 3 Senegal 2 after extra time. Goals: H. Diarra 25 for Senegal, I. Sarr 51 for Senegal, R. Lukaku 86 for Belgium, Y. Tielemans 89 for Belgium, Y. Tielemans 120+5 for Belgium penalty. Belgium advanced after extra time.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Wed 1 JulWimbledon 2026

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic 82%Stefanos Tsitsipas 18%

Novak Djokovic won. 6-3, 6-4, 6-2

The read

Novak Djokovic 82%Stefanos Tsitsipas 18%

Novak Djokovic is favoured at 82 percent against Stefanos Tsitsipas, the implied probability from the Unibet (FR) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (FR) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 30 Jun

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

England vs DR Congo

England vs DR Congo prediction: the world number four against the best of the third placed sides. The model gives England 67 percent and calls a 2-0.

England 67%Draw 22%DR Congo 11%

Called 2-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
England won Group L, DR Congo qualified as the best ranked of the third placed teams.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
England are ranked fourth in the world, DR Congo far below but well organised.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
England field the second most valuable squad at the finals, DR Congo a fraction of that.
Player level by league and club
England carry Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, DR Congo a battling Europe based core.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Atlanta with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
England carry the weight of expectation, DR Congo the freedom of the underdog.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.99 for England and 0.71 for DR Congo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 67 for England, 22 for a draw and 11 for DR Congo, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the England win band sits at 57 to 76.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 2-0

England advanced.

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

Mexico vs Ecuador

Mexico vs Ecuador prediction: co-hosts Mexico at altitude against the side that knocked out Germany. The model gives Mexico 41 percent and tips Mexico to go through.

Mexico 41%Draw 28%Ecuador 31%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Mexico won Group A with a perfect record, Ecuador reached the last 32 by stunning Germany.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are level on ranking, both around the low twenties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, with little to separate them.
Player level by league and club
Mexico build around Edson Alvarez and a home based core, Ecuador around Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Mexico City gives the co-hosts a clear home crowd and altitude edge, which the model adds.
Head to head
A thin recent head to head, lightly weighted.
Stakes and motivation
A home knockout for Mexico, a chance for Ecuador to back up the Germany result.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for Mexico and 1.2 for Ecuador. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Mexico, 28 for a draw and 31 for Ecuador, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Mexico win band sits at 31 to 52.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

Mexico advanced.

Mexico 2 Ecuador 0 at full time. Goals: J. Quinones 22 for Mexico, R. Jimenez 31 for Mexico. P. Hincapie of Ecuador sent off 90+5. Mexico advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: co-hosts USA at home against Edin Dzeko's Bosnia. The model gives USA 51 percent and tips USA to go through.

USA 51%Draw 27%Bosnia and Herzegovina 22%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA won Group D, Bosnia reached the last 32 as a best third out of Group B.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The USA are ranked around seventeenth, Bosnia a little lower.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA hold a squad value edge, Bosnia lean on an experienced spine.
Player level by league and club
The USA build around Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, Bosnia around Edin Dzeko.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed Pulisic's fitness through the group, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A home crowd in San Francisco gives the co-hosts a clear lift, which the model adds.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A home knockout for the USA, a major upset bid for Bosnia.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.64 for USA and 1.01 for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 51 for USA, 27 for a draw and 22 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the USA win band sits at 41 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

USA advanced.

USA 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 at full time. Goals: F. Balogun 45 for USA, M. Tillman 82 for USA. F. Balogun of USA sent off 64. USA advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Tue 30 Jun

France vs Sweden

France vs Sweden prediction: the world number three against the tournament's hottest strike pair. The model gives France 60 percent and calls a 1-0.

France 60%Draw 24%Sweden 16%

Called 1-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
France won Group I with a perfect record, Sweden reached the last 32 as a best third despite a 5-1 rout of Tunisia.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
France are ranked third in the world, Sweden well below but dangerous.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
France field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Sweden carry two elite strikers.
Player level by league and club
France build around Mbappe and a deep, elite core, Sweden around Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in the New York area with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Older meetings only, lightly weighted, so the head to head barely moves the call.
Stakes and motivation
France chase the title, Sweden arrive with house money and firepower.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.84 for France and 0.84 for Sweden. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 60 for France, 24 for a draw and 16 for Sweden, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the France win band sits at 50 to 70.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 1-0

France advanced.

France 3 Sweden 0 at full time. Goals: K. Mbappe 45 for France, B. Barcola 53 for France, K. Mbappe 74 for France. France advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Tue 30 Jun

Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory Coast vs Norway prediction: a top five league stocked Ivory Coast against Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The model gives Norway 44 percent and tips Norway to go through.

Ivory Coast 28%Draw 28%Norway 44%

Called 0-1. Final 1-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ivory Coast finished second in Group E, Norway second in Group I behind France.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Norway marginally higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, Norway edging it on their star names.
Player level by league and club
Ivory Coast carry Amad Diallo and a top five league core, Norway lean on Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chase a first deep run, Norway in their first World Cup in a generation.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.15 for Ivory Coast and 1.48 for Norway. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for Ivory Coast, 28 for a draw and 44 for Norway, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Ivory Coast win band sits at 20 to 38.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Right call · we picked 0-1

Norway advanced.

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Tue 30 Jun

Netherlands vs Morocco

Netherlands vs Morocco prediction: a deep Dutch side against the 2022 semifinalists. The model gives Netherlands 46 percent and tips Netherlands to go through.

Netherlands 46%Draw 27%Morocco 27%

Called 1-0. Final 1-1 (Morocco on pens), Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The Netherlands topped Group F, Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil on goal difference.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The Netherlands sit inside the top ten, Morocco around twelfth, a narrow gap.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The Netherlands hold a squad value edge, Morocco a deep European based group.
Player level by league and club
The Netherlands carry Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo, Morocco Hakimi, Amrabat and Ziyech.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Monterrey with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A heavyweight last 32 tie, the kind that can swing on a single moment.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.52 for Netherlands and 1.11 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for Netherlands, 27 for a draw and 27 for Morocco, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Netherlands win band sits at 35 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 1-0

Morocco advanced on penalties (3-2).

The Netherlands and Morocco finished 1-1 after extra time, and Morocco won the shootout 3-2 to reach the last 16. Cody Gakpo put the Dutch ahead, but Issa Diop headed Morocco level in the 91st minute from a Chemsdine Talbi cross to force extra time. In the shootout Morocco goalkeeper Yassine Bounou saved Crysencio Summerville's kick, and Ismael Saibari converted the winner. It sent the Netherlands home at their earliest men's World Cup exit. We tipped the Netherlands to go through, and that call missed.

The controversy

Nothing was formally disputed, the drama was a 91st minute equaliser and a decisive goalkeeper save in the shootout rather than a contested call.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Mon 29 Jun

Germany vs Paraguay

Germany vs Paraguay prediction: a billion euro Germany against Gustavo Alfaro's stubborn Paraguay. The model gives Germany 68 percent and calls a 2-0.

Germany 68%Draw 21%Paraguay 11%

Called 2-0. Final 1-1 (Paraguay on pens), Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany recovered from a shock loss to Ecuador to reach the last 32, Paraguay sneaked through as a best third.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Germany are ranked around ninth in the world, Paraguay in the forties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Paraguay many multiples below.
Player level by league and club
Germany carry Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz, Paraguay a disciplined, mostly South American base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Boston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany want to settle nerves after a wobbly group, Paraguay arrive with nothing to lose.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.02 for Germany and 0.68 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 68 for Germany, 21 for a draw and 11 for Paraguay, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Germany win band sits at 58 to 77.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

Paraguay advanced on penalties (4-3).

Germany and Paraguay finished 1-1 after extra time, and Paraguay won the shootout 4-3 to pull off one of the great World Cup upsets. Julio Enciso headed Paraguay in front on 42 minutes from a Matias Galarza cross, and Kai Havertz levelled with a glancing header from Florian Wirtz eight minutes after the break. A Jonathan Tah goal was ruled out by VAR for a foul on the goalkeeper, and after a goalless extra time it went to penalties. Havertz missed the opening kick and Germany missed three in all, while Jose Canale scored the decisive spot kick. It was the first time Germany had ever lost a World Cup shootout. We tipped Germany to go through, and that call missed.

The controversy

Germany's Jonathan Tah had a goal from a corner ruled out after a VAR review found a foul on the Paraguay goalkeeper, the night's biggest flashpoint. The decision stood on review, and Germany could not find another way through.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Mon 29 Jun

Brazil vs Japan

Brazil vs Japan prediction: five times champions Brazil against a fluid, fearless Japan. The model gives Brazil 58 percent and tips Brazil to go through.

Brazil 58%Draw 25%Japan 17%

Called 1-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil topped Group C, Japan finished second in Group F after a thrilling draw with the Netherlands.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Japan a touch lower but rising fast.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Japan a deep European based group.
Player level by league and club
Brazil carry Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, Japan a quick, technical core in Kamada and Mitoma.
Availability and injuries
Brazil managed some attacking knocks, so availability is treated as slightly reduced.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Houston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Brazil chase a deep run, Japan a first ever World Cup quarterfinal.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.78 for Brazil and 0.88 for Japan. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 58 for Brazil, 25 for a draw and 17 for Japan, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Brazil win band sits at 47 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 1-0

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Sun 28 Jun

South Africa vs Canada

South Africa vs Canada prediction: the round of 32 opener, Bafana Bafana against co-hosts Canada. The model gives Canada 45 percent and tips Canada to go through.

South Africa 27%Draw 28%Canada 45%

Called 0-1. Final 0-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
South Africa reached the last 32 with a famous win over South Korea, Canada by edging Group B.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Canada sit a little higher in the ranking, with South Africa among the lower seeds left.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Canada hold a clear squad value edge through their European based attackers.
Player level by league and club
Canada build around Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, South Africa on a largely domestic base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in the Los Angeles area with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A first knockout meeting with a quarter of the draw opening up behind it.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.12 for South Africa and 1.51 for Canada. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 27 for South Africa, 28 for a draw and 45 for Canada, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the South Africa win band sits at 19 to 37.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Hit · we picked 0-1

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 3Sun 28 Jun

Jordan vs Argentina

Jordan vs Argentina prediction: World Cup debutants Jordan against the reigning champions. The model gives Argentina 82 percent and calls a 0-2.

Jordan 4%Draw 14%Argentina 82%

Called 0-2. Final 1-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina topped South American qualifying and went unbeaten through their June warm-ups, the reigning world champions. Jordan produced the best qualifying campaign in their history to reach a first World Cup.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina are ranked 1st in the world, Jordan 63rd, one of the widest gaps in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina are valued near 800 million euros, a top seven squad. Jordan are valued near 20 million euros, the lowest at the finals.
Player level by league and club
Argentina field an elite core, Lionel Messi, Enzo Fernandez, Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez. Jordan are led by Musa Al Taamari at Rennes, with most of the squad in Gulf and regional leagues.
Availability and injuries
Argentina manage several fitness calls but expect Messi to feature. Jordan are without top scorer Yazan Al Naimat. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, and Argentina may rotate if already qualified, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Dallas Stadium is a neutral, indoor venue, though Argentina carry a large travelling support, with both on similar rest.
Head to head
There is no competitive meeting on record, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Jordan, as debutants, chase a historic first point or win. Argentina may already be through and could rotate and rest Messi, which lifts Jordan's relative motivation.

Called 1-1. Final 3-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Algeria topped their African group to reach a first World Cup since 2014. Austria won their European group with a heavy goal difference, winning four of their last five qualifiers.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Austria are ranked 24th in the world, Algeria around 28th, a close contest.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The squads are nearly level, Algeria near 257 million euros and Austria near 245 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Algeria field captain Riyad Mahrez and Mohamed Amoura at Wolfsburg. Austria are anchored by David Alaba at Real Madrid, Konrad Laimer at Bayern Munich and Marcel Sabitzer, with strong Bundesliga depth.
Availability and injuries
Algeria watch a doubt over Ramy Bensebaini, with Mahrez and Amoura available. Austria have Alaba back from a knee injury and report a settled squad. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Kansas City Stadium is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Their only meeting was a 1982 World Cup game, far too old to weight, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Likely decisive for second place behind Argentina. Mahrez is in a likely final tournament, Austria chase knockout football, so motivation runs high on both sides.

Called 1-1. Final 3-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA had a mixed buildup with some heavy losses but a strong opening win. Türkiye qualified through the playoffs and pushed Spain in qualifying, an improving side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The USA are ranked 17th in the world, Türkiye 22nd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Türkiye are valued near 474 million euros, the most valuable in the group. The USA are valued near 386 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Türkiye carry elite talent, Hakan Calhanoglu at Inter and Arda Guler at Real Madrid. The USA build around Christian Pulisic at Milan, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed several fitness scares before the tournament, with Pulisic and the front line monitored. Türkiye's matchday three picture is not confirmed. Lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Stadium gives co-host USA a clear home crowd and familiarity advantage, a real lift the model adds. Türkiye are on equal rest.
Head to head
The sides have no meaningful recent meeting, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A decisive group finale. Both likely need points, with Türkiye perhaps needing a win to survive, while the USA want to top the group at home.

The referee, Mustapha Ghorbal of Algeria, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night the officiating was not the story, a rotated USA side and a last minute goal were.

The official

Mustapha Ghorbal · Algeria

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany are in excellent form, with heavy qualifying wins and a strong opening statement. Ecuador are solid but lower scoring, a defensively organised South American side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Germany are ranked around 9th in the world, Ecuador around 23rd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany are valued near 947 million euros, the fifth most valuable squad at the finals. Ecuador are valued near 369 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Germany are Champions League heavy, Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz. Ecuador carry real quality too, Moises Caicedo at Chelsea and Piero Hincapie, with Willian Pacho at Paris Saint-Germain.
Availability and injuries
Germany are without Marc Andre ter Stegen and watch Musiala's fitness. Ecuador's core is fit. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
New York New Jersey Stadium is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
The sides have met only twice, long ago, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany chase top spot and goal difference. Ecuador likely need a result to keep advancement hopes alive, so the underdog carries extra urgency.

The referee, Tori Penso of the United States, was appointed after this forecast was built. She enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night her calls, an awarded then rescinded Germany penalty above all, were central to how the result turned.

The official

Tori Penso · United States

An American FIFA referee with major assignments including the 2023 Women's World Cup final, the Paris 2024 Olympics and the FIFA Club World Cup.

Measured by her night, Penso was decisive and contested. She booked Hincapie and Pavlovic, one each, awarded Germany a Havertz penalty and then withdrew it on VAR review, while Ecuador felt a foul was missed before Sane's opener. The big calls, not the cards, shaped the upset. The pre match model never lets the official touch the winner, which is exactly why a night like this falls outside it.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.84 for Ecuador and 1.84 for Germany. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 60 for Germany, 24 for a draw and 16 for Ecuador, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because the head to head is non-informative and the matchday three lineups are not yet set, so the Ecuador win band is wide and low at 10 to 24.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 3Thu 25 Jun

Curacao vs Ivory Coast

Curacao vs Ivory Coast prediction: World Cup debutants Curacao against a strong Ivory Coast. The model gives Ivory Coast 70 percent and calls a 0-2.

Curacao 10%Draw 20%Ivory Coast 70%

Called 0-2. Final 0-2, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ivory Coast were unbeaten in African qualifying and arrive in strong form. Curacao reached their first World Cup as one of the smallest nations ever to qualify, but were exposed in heavy company.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Ivory Coast are ranked around 33rd in the world, Curacao around 82nd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Ivory Coast are valued near 520 million euros, the most valuable African squad. Curacao are valued near 26 million euros, one of the smallest at the finals.
Player level by league and club
Ivory Coast field a full squad of Europe based players, Amad Diallo at Manchester United, Evan Ndicka at Roma and captain Franck Kessie. Curacao rely on lower and mid tier European players, Tahith Chong and the Bacuna brothers.
Availability and injuries
Ivory Coast report no major confirmed absences. Curacao carry no widely reported injuries but are thin. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia Stadium is neutral, though Ivory Coast's tournament base near Philadelphia is a small familiarity edge, with both on similar rest.
Head to head
The sides have never met, so there is no head to head and the model leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Ivory Coast play for top spot and qualification. Curacao face a steep task after a heavy opener but chase a historic first World Cup point.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.63 for Curacao and 2.08 for Ivory Coast. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 70 for Ivory Coast, 20 for a draw and 10 for Curacao, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no head to head and the matchday three lineups are not yet set, so the Curacao win band is wide and low at 5 to 16.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Hit · we picked 0-2

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 3Thu 25 Jun

South Africa vs South Korea

South Africa vs South Korea prediction: Bafana Bafana against Son Heung-min and South Korea. The model gives South Korea 57 percent and calls a 1-1.

South Africa 18%Draw 25%South Korea 57%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
South Africa qualified from Africa after a 16 year drought but lost their opener 2-0 to Mexico. South Korea beat Czechia 2-1 in their opener with a late winner.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
South Korea are ranked around 25th in the world, South Africa around 60th.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
South Korea are valued near 142 million euros, South Africa near 46 million euros, roughly three times higher for South Korea.
Player level by league and club
South Korea carry an elite European spine, Lee Kang-in at Paris Saint-Germain and Kim Min-jae, with captain Son Heung-min now in MLS. South Africa are built on their domestic league with a smaller European contingent.
Availability and injuries
Son is fit and captaining the side, with Hwang In-beom managing an ankle issue. South Africa report no confirmed key absences for matchday three. The lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Estadio Monterrey is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
The sides have only a thin and dated record, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Likely decisive for both. After an opening loss South Africa probably need a result to stay alive, South Korea aim to seal progression and group position.

The referee, Facundo Tello of Argentina, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night he booked one player a side and had no decisive call to make.

The official

Facundo Tello · Argentina

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Türkiye qualified through the playoffs behind Spain but opened with a surprise 2-0 loss to Australia. Paraguay revived under Gustavo Alfaro to qualify after 16 years away, then lost their opener 4-1 to the USA. Both sit on zero points.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Türkiye are ranked 22nd in the world, Paraguay 41st.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Türkiye are valued near 474 million euros, a top dozen squad. Paraguay sit near 40th by value, well below, with an exact total not confirmed.
Player level by league and club
Türkiye carry elite talent, Arda Guler at Real Madrid, Kenan Yildiz at Juventus and captain Hakan Calhanoglu at Inter. Paraguay are more domestic and South American based, with Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso the names abroad.
Availability and injuries
Paraguay's main doubt is Julio Enciso, hurt in a June friendly and racing to be fit. Türkiye report no major confirmed absences. Matchday two lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is neutral, with both sides travelling into Northern California and equal rest.
Head to head
The only meetings were two friendlies in 2004, both won by Türkiye. Negligible signal, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both lost their openers, so this is close to a must win to keep round of 32 hopes alive in a group with the USA and Australia.

The referee, Ivan Barton of El Salvador, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. His decisive call, a first half red card, went against Paraguay, who won regardless.

The official

Ivan Barton · El Salvador

A Salvadoran FIFA referee and a regular in Concacaf and at world tournaments, known for a firm, card ready style.

Measured by his actions, Barton was strict and his biggest call hurt the winners. He booked Paraguay's Galarza early, carded the Türkiye bench, and sent off Paraguay's Almiron in first half stoppage time after a VAR review. Paraguay won with ten men, so the officiating made the upset harder, not easier. The pre match model never weights the referee on the winner, and nothing here would have changed that.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.66 for Türkiye and 0.99 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for Türkiye, 26 for a draw and 22 for Paraguay, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Türkiye edge the win. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no usable head to head and the matchday two lineups are not yet set, so the Türkiye win band is wide at 42 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 1Sat 20 Jun

Brazil vs Haiti

Brazil vs Haiti prediction: five times world champions against a side at only their second ever World Cup. The model gives Haiti 6 percent and calls a 2-0.

Brazil 77%Draw 17%Haiti 6%

Called 2-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil are favourites under Carlo Ancelotti but have looked anxious in patches, and the model respects rather than inflates their form. Haiti are competitive and organised defensively but light on goals, the lower end of the group's attacking threat.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Haiti around 83rd. This is one of the widest strength gaps the model sees in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals near 928 million euros. Haiti are valued near 56 million euros, a difference of many multiples.
Player level by league and club
Brazil are stacked with elite club talent, including Vinicius Junior at Real Madrid, Raphinha at Barcelona and Gabriel Magalhaes at Arsenal. Haiti's best play in mid tier Europe and MLS, led by Wilson Isidor and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, a clear pedigree gap.
Availability and injuries
Brazil carry notable absences, with Rodrygo, Estevao, Eder Militao and Wesley among the unavailable and a doubt over Neymar's fitness, though the depth absorbs it. Haiti name a full squad, but Brazil's exact attacking lineup was not fully confirmed, so the model treats availability as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia Stadium is a neutral venue, though the city's sizeable Haitian American community means the crowd may not be one sided. The model treats rest and travel as broadly symmetric.
Head to head
Their only modern meeting was a 7-1 Brazil win at the 2016 Copa America Centenario. Older meetings are discounted, and the recent result strongly favours Brazil.
Stakes and motivation
Brazil want a commanding start to control Group C and ease pressure on Ancelotti. Haiti, at only their second ever World Cup, are highly motivated but face a clear class gap, so the model adds only a small motivation edge their way.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.26 for Brazil and 0.48 for Haiti. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 77 for Brazil, 17 for a draw and 6 for Haiti, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is good at 0.92, held back by Brazil's unsettled attacking lineup and an unappointed referee, so the Brazil win band sits at 69 to 85.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2Fri 19 Jun

Scotland vs Morocco

Scotland vs Morocco prediction: group leaders Scotland against the 2022 semifinalists. The model gives Morocco 65 percent and calls a 0-2.

Scotland 13%Draw 22%Morocco 65%

Called 0-2. Final 0-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Morocco are on a long unbeaten run, won their African group with a perfect record, and opened with a 1-1 draw against Brazil. Scotland ended a 28 year absence and opened with a 1-0 win over Haiti through John McGinn.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Morocco are ranked 7th in the world, Scotland 42nd, one of the wider gaps in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Morocco are valued in the range of 447 to 488 million euros, a top dozen squad. Scotland are valued near 170 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Morocco field elite league regulars, Achraf Hakimi at Paris Saint-Germain, Brahim Diaz at Real Madrid and Noussair Mazraoui at Manchester United. Scotland are anchored by Scott McTominay at Napoli and captain Andy Robertson.
Availability and injuries
Morocco are without Nayef Aguerd and Abde Ezzalzouli for the tournament, with Hakimi over a thigh issue. Scotland lost Billy Gilmour before the finals and watched Che Adams' fitness. Matchday two lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Boston Stadium is neutral, and both played their openers in the northeast, so travel and rest are broadly even.
Head to head
Their only meeting was a 3-0 Morocco win at the 1998 World Cup, too old to carry weight, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Scotland top the group on three points and a result moves them close to a first ever knockout place. Morocco, a 2022 semifinalist, need a win after drawing Brazil to control their group.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.74 for Scotland and 1.95 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Morocco, 22 for a draw and 13 for Scotland, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no usable head to head and the matchday two lineups are not yet set, so the Scotland win band is wide and low at 7 to 20.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Right call · we picked 0-2

Morocco beat Scotland 1-0 in Boston, Ismael Saibari striking after just 72 seconds, the fastest goal of the tournament so far. The 2022 semifinalists managed the game from there, and the result left Scotland's hopes of a first ever knockout stage on a knife edge going into the Brazil game. We had Morocco to win and called 0-2, the winner was right but the margin was tighter than the model expected.

The controversy

Nothing significant was disputed. Scotland pressed for an equaliser without a contested decision turning the game, and the officials were not the story.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D, Matchday 1Fri 19 Jun

USA vs Australia

USA vs Australia prediction: a co-host with a home crowd in Seattle against a stubborn Socceroos side. The model gives the USA 53 percent and calls a 1-1.

USA 53%Draw 26%Australia 21%

Called 1-1. Final 2-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA were mixed in warm-ups, with losses to Belgium, Portugal and Germany alongside a win over Senegal, before strong tournament intent. Australia arrive organised and hard to beat, the kind of disciplined side that frustrates favourites.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The USA are ranked 17th in the world, Australia 27th. A modest gap that the model treats with respect, widened by home advantage.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA are valued near 386 million euros, Australia near 77 million euros, roughly a five times difference in the hosts' favour.
Player level by league and club
The USA core plays in top European leagues, with Christian Pulisic at Milan, Weston McKennie at Juventus and Antonee Robinson at Fulham. Australia are drawn more from lower European tiers, the A-League and Asia, with captain Mathew Ryan and Jackson Irvine the experienced names.
Availability and injuries
The USA carried several knocks into the tournament, with Pulisic managing a glute issue and questions over others. The exact matchday fitness picture was not fully confirmed, so the model treats this signal as incomplete. Australia lost Riley McGree before the finals but otherwise look settled.
Venue, travel and rest
Seattle Stadium gives co-host USA a clear home crowd and familiarity edge, a real lift the model adds on top of the ranking gap. Travel and rest are broadly comparable.
Head to head
The sides have met four times at senior level, with the USA leading two wins to one and a draw, most recently a 2-1 win in October 2025. A small but real recent edge the model trusts. They have never met at a World Cup.
Stakes and motivation
In a balanced Group D, this fixture shapes the path to the knockouts, so the stakes are high for both. The USA also carry host nation pressure to advance deep, a small extra edge the model logs.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for the USA layered on top, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.67 for the USA and 0.98 for Australia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for the USA, 26 for a draw and 21 for Australia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as the hosts edge the win probability. Data quality is good at 0.92, held back by an unconfirmed USA fitness picture and an unappointed referee, so the USA win band sits at 43 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Missed · we picked 1-1

The USA beat Australia 2-0 in Seattle to reach the round of 32 with a game to spare. An Australia own goal on eleven minutes and an Alex Freeman header just before the break did the damage, and the co-hosts saw it out without the injured Christian Pulisic. It was the first time the USA had won back to back World Cup games since 1930. Our 1-1 call missed, the home side were the stronger throughout.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The opener was an own goal and the game was cleanly officiated, with no VAR controversy of note.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 1Fri 19 Jun

Mexico vs South Korea

Mexico vs South Korea prediction: a co-host at home in Guadalajara against Son Heung-min in what is likely his last World Cup. The model gives Mexico 44 percent and calls a 1-1.

Mexico 44%Draw 28%South Korea 28%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Mexico have been solid, with three wins in their last five warm-ups, including a 4-0 win over Iceland. South Korea came through Asian qualifying unbeaten, with five wins and a draw, and arrive in good form themselves.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Mexico are ranked 15th in the world, South Korea 26th. A modest gap that the model treats with respect, widened only by home advantage.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Mexico are valued near 195 million euros, South Korea near 142 million euros. A real but not decisive difference in Mexico's favour.
Player level by league and club
Both field top five league talent. Mexico are led by captain Edson Alvarez at Fenerbahce and Santiago Gimenez at Milan. South Korea counter with captain Son Heung-min, Kim Min-jae at Bayern Munich and Lee Kang-in at Paris Saint-Germain, a strong European core.
Availability and injuries
South Korea are without defender Cho Yu-min through a foot injury and carry a doubt over Hwang In-beom's ankle. Mexico's injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model treats this signal as incomplete rather than guessing.
Venue, travel and rest
Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan gives co-host Mexico a strong home crowd and an acclimatisation edge at moderate altitude, a real lift the model adds. South Korea face the travel and adjustment.
Head to head
Mexico lead the series, roughly four wins to one with a draw, and are unbeaten in World Cup meetings, most recently a 2-1 win at the 2018 finals. A real and recent edge the model trusts.
Stakes and motivation
Group A is winnable for both and a result here is pivotal for topping it. Mexico carry host pressure to reach the knockouts, while South Korea, with Son in a likely final World Cup, are highly motivated to compete deep.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for Mexico layered on top, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.49 for Mexico and 1.14 for South Korea. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 44 for Mexico, 28 for a draw and 28 for South Korea, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is good at 0.92, held back by an unconfirmed Mexico injury list and an unappointed referee, so the Mexico win band sits at 35 to 54.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Mexico beat South Korea 1-0 in Guadalajara to become the first side into the round of 32. The only goal came just after the break, Luis Romo punishing a heavy error by goalkeeper Kim to settle a tight night in front of a home crowd. Mexico controlled the tempo without ever pulling clear and topped Group A. Our 1-1 call missed the exact score, and the draw lean was wrong, the home edge proved decisive.

The controversy

Nothing of substance was disputed. The decisive goal stemmed from a goalkeeping error rather than a refereeing call, and the night passed without a major VAR incident.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 1Thu 18 Jun

Canada vs Qatar

Canada vs Qatar prediction: a co-host in front of a home crowd in Vancouver against a side chasing a first World Cup win. The model gives Canada 61 percent and calls a 1-0.

Canada 61%Draw 24%Qatar 15%

Called 1-0. Final 6-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Canada have been steady under Jesse Marsch, with wins over Venezuela and Guatemala and draws with Colombia and Ecuador in their recent run. Qatar qualified through the Asian fourth round with a 2-1 win over the United Arab Emirates and arrive in respectable shape.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Canada are ranked around 31st in the world, Qatar near 56th. A clear gap the model trusts, widened by home advantage.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Canada are valued near 199 million euros, Qatar near 20 million euros, roughly a tenfold difference in Canada's favour.
Player level by league and club
Canada's spine plays at elite European level, with Alphonso Davies at Bayern Munich, Jonathan David at Juventus and Alistair Johnston at Celtic. Qatar's key men, Akram Afif and Almoez Ali, play in the Qatar Stars League.
Availability and injuries
Canada's Alphonso Davies was working back from a hamstring injury and was targeted to return for this match, while Marcelo Flores is out with a knee injury. Qatar's wider injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model treats this signal as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Vancouver Stadium gives co-host Canada a clear home crowd and familiarity advantage, a real lift the model adds on top of the ranking gap. Rest between matches is broadly even.
Head to head
The sides have met only once, a 2022 friendly in Vienna that Canada won 2-0. The sample is a single non competitive game, so the model logs it but leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chase a first ever World Cup win. As hosts Canada carry heavy pressure to advance from a balanced group, while Qatar arrive looking for a statement result, so motivation runs high with an edge to the home side.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for Canada layered on top, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.85 for Canada and 0.82 for Qatar. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 61 for Canada, 24 for a draw and 15 for Qatar, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed Qatar injury list and the absence of a meaningful head to head, so the Canada win band sits at 51 to 71.

2.4k184

What happened

6-0Right call · we picked 1-0

Canada thrashed Qatar 6-0 in Vancouver for their first ever World Cup win, the biggest by a CONCACAF side in tournament history. Jonathan David scored a hat-trick, with Cyle Larin, Nathan Saliba and a Qatar own goal completing the rout in front of a home crowd. We had Canada to win and called 1-0, the winner was right but the model never imagined the margin.

The controversy

The night turned ugly with two red cards and a serious injury to Kone in the second half. The dismissals reflected a heated contest rather than a single disputed call, and the result was long settled by then.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 1Thu 18 Jun

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: the group's traditional power meets the side that knocked Italy out to get here. The model gives Switzerland 49 percent and calls a 1-1.

Switzerland 49%Draw 27%Bosnia and Herzegovina 24%

Called 1-1. Final 4-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Switzerland have been steady but leaky, with two wins, two draws and a 4-3 loss to Germany in their last five, scoring and conceding freely. Bosnia are draw heavy and low scoring, having reached the finals through the playoffs after holding Italy and Wales.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Switzerland are ranked 19th in the world, Bosnia around 64th. A wide gap of some 45 places that the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Switzerland are valued near 333 million euros, Bosnia near 146 million euros, roughly a two and a half times difference in Switzerland's favour.
Player level by league and club
Switzerland field top five league regulars including captain Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, and goalkeepers Yann Sommer and Gregor Kobel. Bosnia lean on the 40 year old record scorer Edin Dzeko, with Sead Kolasinac and Amar Dedic the supporting names across more modest clubs.
Availability and injuries
Neither side carries a confirmed major injury or suspension at this stage. Switzerland's Zeki Amdouni is back from a long knee injury but short of minutes, and Dzeko is reported fit to lead the line for Bosnia.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood is a neutral, covered and climate controlled venue, so heat is not a factor and the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
The only meeting on file is a 2016 friendly that Bosnia won 2-0. The sample is a single old, non competitive game, so the model logs it but leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
In a balanced group that also holds Canada and Qatar, a result here is close to decisive. Switzerland see themselves as the group's power, while Bosnia carry the momentum and siege mentality of eliminating Italy to reach only their second World Cup.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.6 for Switzerland and 1.04 for Bosnia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Switzerland, 27 for a draw and 24 for Bosnia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is a single old friendly, so the Switzerland win band sits at 40 to 58.

2.4k184

What happened

4-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 in Los Angeles to take control of Group B, the goals arriving in a late flurry. Substitute Johan Manzambi struck a stunning volley on 74 minutes and added a second, Ruben Vargas made it three, and Granit Xhaka rounded it off from the spot deep in stoppage time after Bosnia had pulled one back through Mahmic. Our 1-1 call missed, the scoreline ran away once Bosnia went down to ten men.

The controversy

Bosnia were reduced to ten men when Tarik Muharemovic was sent off, the turning point that opened the game up. The dismissal was the decisive disciplinary moment rather than a contested VAR call.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 2Thu 18 Jun

Czechia vs South Africa

Czechia vs South Africa prediction: two sides beaten in their openers meet with knockout hopes already on the line. The model gives Czechia 53 percent and calls a 1-1.

Czechia 53%Draw 26%South Africa 21%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Czechia lost their opener 2-1 to South Korea but arrived in good form, unbeaten in their previous warm-ups. South Africa lost 0-2 to Mexico in an ugly game, finishing with nine men after two red cards.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Czechia are ranked 40th in the world, South Africa 60th.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Czechia are valued near 188 million euros, South Africa near 49 million euros, roughly four times higher for Czechia.
Player level by league and club
Czechia carry top five league quality, Patrik Schick at Bayer Leverkusen and Tomas Soucek at West Ham, with a strong Slavia Prague core. South Africa are drawn mostly from their domestic league, with Lyle Foster at Burnley the standout abroad.
Availability and injuries
South Africa lose midfielders Themba Zwane and Sphephelo Sithole to suspension after red cards against Mexico. Czechia report no confirmed absences, and Foster is fit.
Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta Stadium is neutral, and both sides have had a week's rest since their openers, so the setting is symmetric.
Head to head
The sides have no World Cup meetings and no recent competitive history, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both arrive on zero points, so this is close to a must win in a group with Mexico and South Korea. Motivation is high on both sides, slightly more desperate for a shorthanded South Africa.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.69 for Czechia and 0.97 for South Africa. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for Czechia, 26 for a draw and 21 for South Africa, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Czechia edge the win. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because there is no usable head to head, so the Czechia win band sits at 44 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Czechia and South Africa drew 1-1 in Atlanta, exactly as the model called. Michal Sadilek put Czechia ahead early after an Adam Hlozek cross, but South Africa hung on and snatched a point when Teboho Mokoena converted a late penalty. The 1-1 forecast landed on the most likely cell of the grid, and both sides finished level on a point each in Group A.

The controversy

The equaliser came from a penalty, awarded on 83 minutes after Pavel Sulc was penalised for handball. The decision was the night's main talking point but was widely accepted on replay, and Mokoena sent Matej Kovar the wrong way to make it count.

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group K, Matchday 1Thu 18 Jun

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction: a first ever World Cup debut runs into James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, at altitude in Mexico City. The model gives Uzbekistan 17 percent and calls a 0-1.

Uzbekistan 17%Draw 24%Colombia 59%

Called 0-1. Final 1-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Uzbekistan reached their first ever World Cup with a strong, unbeaten Asian qualifying run that included a 3-0 win over Qatar. Colombia arrive in good form, winning both June friendlies against Costa Rica and Jordan, after earlier losses to France and Croatia.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Colombia are ranked 13th in the world, Uzbekistan around 50th. A clear gap the model trusts, though Uzbekistan are an organised, improving side.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Colombia are valued around 302 million euros, mid table among the 48 squads. Uzbekistan are valued near 85 million euros, a clear step below but not among the very lowest.
Player level by league and club
Colombia carry strong European based talent led by Luis Diaz at Bayern Munich and captain James Rodriguez, with Davinson Sanchez and David Ospina behind them. Uzbekistan's standout is Abdukodir Khusanov at Manchester City, with captain Eldor Shomurodov and most of the squad based domestically or in the region.
Availability and injuries
Colombia name James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, both reported fit, with no major absences. Uzbekistan's injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model treats this signal as incomplete rather than guessing.
Venue, travel and rest
Mexico City Stadium sits at roughly 2,240 metres, an altitude that can sap stamina for sides not acclimatised. Neither team is at home, though Colombia's South American players carry more altitude experience, a small edge the model notes.
Head to head
There is no senior meeting on record between the sides, so the head to head offers no signal and the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Uzbekistan are debutants who see a winnable opener and a chance to make history. Colombia, the higher ranked side, treat three points as important toward escaping a group that also contains Portugal, so motivation runs high both ways.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Anthony Taylor · England

A very experienced FIFA referee with over 430 Premier League matches and a second World Cup here, having also worked Qatar 2022 and two European Championships.

In a tie with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide it. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.86 for Uzbekistan and 1.81 for Colombia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 59 for Colombia, 24 for a draw and 17 for Uzbekistan, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed Uzbekistan injury list and the absence of any head to head, so the Uzbekistan win band sits low at 10 to 24.

2.4k184

What happened

1-3Right call · we picked 0-1

Colombia beat World Cup debutants Uzbekistan 3-1 to open Group K at the top. Daniel Munoz headed in before the break, Abbosbek Fayzullaev levelled for a spirited Uzbek side, then Luis Diaz restored the lead and Jaminton Campaz settled it deep in stoppage time. We had Colombia to win and called 0-1, the winner was right but Uzbekistan made it far more open than the scoreline suggests.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed in a cleanly contested game. Uzbekistan's debut passed without a major refereeing flashpoint.

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group L, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Ghana vs Panama

Ghana vs Panama prediction: Ghana arrive without Thomas Partey and Mohammed Kudus against a steady Panama. The model splits them, Ghana 38 percent and a 1-1.

Ghana 38%Draw 28%Panama 34%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ghana topped a tough African qualifying group but arrive in poor warm-up form, without a win in their build-up games. Panama have been steadier, with wins over El Salvador and Guatemala.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Panama are ranked 34th in the world, Ghana 73rd, a higher placing for Panama despite Ghana's bigger reputation.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Ghana are valued near 235 million euros, Panama near 35 million euros, roughly seven times higher for Ghana.
Player level by league and club
Ghana are built on top five league players, Inaki Williams, Antoine Semenyo and captain Jordan Ayew. Panama are mostly MLS, Liga MX and domestic based, anchored by Anibal Godoy and Adalberto Carrasquilla.
Availability and injuries
Ghana are hit hard. Thomas Partey was denied entry to Canada and misses this opener, and Mohammed Kudus is out injured. Panama named a settled squad with no comparable absences.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto Stadium is neutral and the opener for both. Ghana's base in Boston added the border complication that cost them Partey for this game.
Head to head
The sides have no competitive history of note, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
In a group with England and Croatia both treat this as close to a must win. Motivation is high and roughly even, with Ghana carrying the pressure of favourite by pedigree.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Glenn Nyberg · Sweden

An experienced UEFA elite group referee.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.34 for Ghana and 1.27 for Panama. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for Ghana, 28 for a draw and 34 for Panama, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline in a near even game. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because there is no usable head to head, so the Ghana win band sits at 29 to 46.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group L, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

England vs Croatia

England vs Croatia prediction: a rematch of the 2018 semi final, with a 40 year old Luka Modric facing England one more time. The model gives England 50 percent and calls a 1-1.

England 50%Draw 27%Croatia 23%

Called 1-1. Final 4-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
England came through their warm-up window unbeaten, beating New Zealand and Costa Rica, though against light opposition and after a mixed competitive spring. Croatia were beaten 2-0 by Belgium in their main tune-up, leaving questions over an aging core in transition.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
England are ranked fourth in the world, Croatia eleventh. A meaningful gap, but one of the smaller ones the model sees between two established sides.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
England field the second most valuable squad at the finals, near 1.36 billion euros. Croatia are valued around 387 million euros, roughly a three and a half times difference in England's favour.
Player level by league and club
England build around Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and John Stones at Bayern, Real Madrid, Arsenal and Manchester City. Croatia lean on a veteran spine of Luka Modric, now at Milan in his sixth World Cup, with Kovacic and Gvardiol the higher end of their quality.
Availability and injuries
England carry several knocks, with Saka managing an Achilles issue and questions over Livramento, James and Spence, though the depth absorbs it. Croatia welcome back Gvardiol after a shin fracture earlier in the year, with no long term key absences confirmed.
Venue, travel and rest
Dallas Stadium in Arlington is a neutral, domed and air conditioned venue, which removes heat as a factor, so the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
The sides have a rich, balanced recent history. Croatia won the 2018 World Cup semi final after extra time, England won 1-0 at Euro 2020, and the 2018 Nations League double header split a win and a draw. Recent meetings tilt slightly to England, while Croatia own the biggest result.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a winning start in a group with Ghana and Panama where finishing top shapes the knockout path. England carry the weight of expectation, Croatia the emotion of a generational transition around Modric in his final tournament.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Clement Turpin · France

A FIFA referee since 2010 with finals at the highest level, including a Champions League final and multiple England and Croatia matches. He is a strict, high profile official.

In a tight match the official could matter at the margins, but his role is cards, penalties and variance. The model never lets him touch the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.62 for England and 1.02 for Croatia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for England, 27 for a draw and 23 for Croatia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as England edge the win probability. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head, while rich, is dominated by older meetings, so the England win band sits at 41 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

4-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group K, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Portugal vs DR Congo

Portugal vs DR Congo prediction: the reigning Nations League winners open against a side that qualified on the very last day. The model gives DR Congo 11 percent and calls a 2-0.

Portugal 67%Draw 22%DR Congo 11%

Called 2-0. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Portugal are the reigning 2025 Nations League champions and won both June warm-ups, beating Chile and Nigeria. DR Congo earned their place the hard way, winning the African playoff over Nigeria on penalties and then the intercontinental playoff over Jamaica, the last team to qualify.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Portugal are ranked fifth in the world, DR Congo around 47th. A wide gap the model trusts, though DR Congo are a credible side rather than a minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Portugal field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, near 1.01 billion euros. DR Congo are valued around 144 million euros, a clear multiple below Portugal.
Player level by league and club
Portugal are drawn almost entirely from Europe's top five leagues, with Ruben Dias, Joao Neves, Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao among them. DR Congo's key men play in good European leagues at mid table level, including Yoann Wissa, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and captain Chancel Mbemba.
Availability and injuries
Portugal name Cristiano Ronaldo despite a thigh issue that cost him the friendlies, and he is expected to start, with no World Cup threatening injuries reported. DR Congo's wider injury picture beyond Wissa's hard season was not fully confirmed, so the model treats this signal as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Houston Stadium is a neutral, climate controlled venue near sea level, so there is no altitude or heat factor and the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
There is no senior meeting on record between the sides, so the head to head offers no signal and the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Portugal want a winning start in what is likely Ronaldo's final World Cup. DR Congo return to the finals for the first time in decades and arrive as motivated underdogs, so the model adds only a small motivation edge their way.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Abdulrahman Al Jassim · Qatar

An experienced FIFA official who worked the 2022 World Cup, including high profile knockout duty, and a regular at Asian tournaments. He leads a Qatari crew here.

In a tie this lopsided the official is unlikely to shape the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.99 for Portugal and 0.71 for DR Congo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 67 for Portugal, 22 for a draw and 11 for DR Congo, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed DR Congo injury list and the absence of any head to head, so the Portugal win band sits at 57 to 76.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Austria vs Jordan

Austria vs Jordan prediction: David Alaba's Austria against World Cup debutants Jordan. The model gives Austria 56 percent and calls a 1-1.

Austria 56%Draw 25%Jordan 19%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Austria are in strong form, winning their qualifying group with a goal difference of plus 18, including a 2-1 win at Bosnia. Jordan finished their Asian group unbeaten in the third round and reached the 2023 Asian Cup final, a rising side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Austria are ranked 24th in the world, Jordan 63rd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Austria are valued near 245 million euros, Jordan near 20 million euros, the lowest of all 48 squads.
Player level by league and club
Austria are heavily Europe based and high end, David Alaba, Konrad Laimer, Marcel Sabitzer and Marko Arnautovic. Jordan are led by Musa Al Taamari at Rennes, with most of the squad in domestic and Asian leagues.
Availability and injuries
Jordan suffer a major blow, top qualifying scorer Yazan Al Naimat is out with an ACL injury. Austria report no major confirmed absences.
Venue, travel and rest
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is neutral and the opener for both, so neither holds a rest or home edge.
Head to head
The sides have no meaningful competitive history and have effectively never met, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
In a group with Argentina and Algeria this is the most winnable game for both. Jordan make a historic debut and will be charged up, Austria treat it as a must win to set up qualification.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Dahane Beida · Mauritania

A CAF official who refereed the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations final, at his first World Cup.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.75 for Austria and 0.92 for Jordan. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 56 for Austria, 25 for a draw and 19 for Jordan, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Austria edge the win. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because there is no usable head to head, so the Austria win band sits at 47 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Argentina vs Algeria

Argentina vs Algeria prediction: the reigning world champions and world number one open their title defence against Riyad Mahrez and a dangerous Algeria side. The model gives Algeria 10% and calls a 2-0.

Argentina 70%Draw 20%Algeria 10%

Called 2-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina surged back to the top of the ranking after winning both June warm-ups, against Iceland and Honduras, and arrive on a strong run. Algeria come in with a decent recent record of their own, but built against lighter opposition than Argentina have faced.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina are ranked first in the world, Algeria twenty-eighth. A wide gap the model trusts, though smaller than the gulf Argentina would face against a tournament minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina's squad is valued at roughly 807 million euros, the seventh most valuable at the finals. Algeria sit outside the tournament's top twenty by value; the exact figure was not confirmed in the sources used, but it is a clear multiple below Argentina.
Player level by league and club
Argentina's spine is spread across elite European clubs, with Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero and Nicolas Otamendi among the names, backed by a strong domestic core. Algeria's threat runs mainly through Riyad Mahrez and a group of Europe-based attackers, while the defence is the softer unit.
Availability and injuries
Argentina carry several fitness doubts, with Lo Celso, Foyth and Nicolas Gonzalez listed among the unavailable and a question over Tagliafico, but the squad has the depth to absorb them. Algeria are closer to full strength. Final lineups firm up about an hour before kickoff.
Venue, travel and rest
Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is a neutral venue with neither side at home, so the model treats the setting as roughly symmetric.
Head to head
The sides have met only once, a 2007 friendly that Argentina won 4-3. It is old and non-competitive, so the model down-weights it heavily.
Stakes and motivation
Argentina open the defence of their title and will want a statement start; Algeria open with a point to prove against the favourites. The model adds only a tiny motivation edge either way.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a single strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.95 for Argentina and 0.75 for Algeria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring games, which produces the probability of every possible result. Summed up that is 70 for Argentina, 20 for a draw and 10 for Algeria, and the single most likely cell on the grid is 2-0. Data quality is good but not full at 0.88, held back mainly by the open referee appointment and a few late Argentine fitness calls, so the Argentina-win band stays a touch wider at 62 to 77.

2.4k184

How this changed

4 Jun66% Argentina

Opening estimate before final squads were named, held wider while form and availability were still settling.

14 Jun70% Argentina

Tightened toward Argentina once the warm-up wins and the kind group draw firmed up. No confirmed referee yet, so the band is held slightly wider.

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group I, Matchday 1Tue 16 Jun

Iraq vs Norway

Iraq vs Norway prediction: a 40 year wait meets Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The model gives Iraq 10 percent and calls a 0-2.

Iraq 10%Draw 21%Norway 69%

Called 0-2. Final 1-4, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Norway are one of Europe's in form sides, winning four of their last five with a golden generation that scored freely in qualifying. Iraq's path was harder, sealing the 48th and final place through an intercontinental playoff win over Bolivia after grinding through the Asian rounds.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Norway are ranked around 32nd, Iraq just outside the top 50 near 57th. The gap is real and the model trusts it, while noting both sit below the tournament's elite.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Norway are valued near 590 million euros, among the top ten squads at the finals. Iraq are valued around 21 million euros, one of the lowest in the field, a difference of many multiples.
Player level by league and club
Norway are led by Erling Haaland of Manchester City and Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard, backed by Sorloth, Nusa and Berge across strong leagues. Iraq are mostly domestic or lower tier European based, with Zidane Iqbal and a Scandinavian based group their most recognisable names.
Availability and injuries
Norway are essentially full strength, with Haaland and Odegaard both confirmed fit. Iraq's injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model marks this signal as incomplete rather than guessing at it.
Venue, travel and rest
Boston Stadium in Foxborough is a neutral venue and the tournament opener for both, so neither side carries a rest or travel edge.
Head to head
The sides have no prior competitive meeting on record, so there is no head to head signal and the model leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Iraq return to a World Cup after a 40 year wait, a huge national occasion, while Norway end a 28 year absence with a side built to make an impact. Motivation runs high on both sides, with a small emotional edge to the underdog.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Pierre Atcho · Gabon

A 33 year old FIFA official recognised for his Africa Cup of Nations work, Atcho leads an all African crew here. His detailed card and penalty record was not available in the sources used, so it enters the model only as variance.

In a lopsided tie the official is very unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

The engine turns eight signals into a strength gap, then into the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.66 for Iraq and 2.04 for Norway. Those expectations feed a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 69 for Norway, 21 for a draw and 10 for Iraq, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed Iraq injury list and the absence of any head to head, so the Iraq win band stays low and tight at 5 to 17.

2.4k184

What happened

1-4Right call · we picked 0-2

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group I, Matchday 1Tue 16 Jun

France vs Senegal

France vs Senegal prediction: the 2018 world champions open against the only side to beat them at a World Cup since, and the model still struggles to split them. It gives France 52 percent and calls a 1-1.

France 52%Draw 26%Senegal 22%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
France arrive in strong shape, reigning 2018 champions and 2022 finalists, and closed their warm-up window with a 3-1 win over Northern Ireland. Senegal are also hot, with Africa Cup of Nations wins over Mali, Egypt and Sudan and a 2-0 friendly win over Peru, though built against lighter opposition than France have faced.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
France are ranked third in the world, Senegal around fourteenth and the top African side in the group. A clear gap, but far from the gulf France would face against a minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
France field the most valuable squad at the tournament at roughly 1.52 billion euros, with several players valued at 100 million euros or more. Senegal are valued near 478 million euros, a strong number that is still a clear step below France.
Player level by league and club
France build around an elite core of Mbappe, Dembele, Saliba and Maignan spread across Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal. Senegal counter with a heavily Premier League and top European base, including Pape Matar Sarr, Iliman Ndiaye, Nicolas Jackson and the experience of Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mane.
Availability and injuries
France expect Mbappe to captain the side despite a minor thigh issue, with Saliba and Kounde cleared, though Ekitike is ruled out. Senegal are close to full strength, with Mane fit and only minor knocks reported. Final lineups firm up about an hour before kickoff.
Venue, travel and rest
New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford is a neutral venue with neither side at home, and both play their tournament opener here, so the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
The defining meeting is Senegal's 1-0 win over reigning champions France at the 2002 World Cup. The sample is tiny and old, so the model logs the memory but down weights it heavily and leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
France open what is set to be Didier Deschamps' farewell tournament and want a statement start. Senegal carry the role of African flag bearer and the legacy of 2002, so motivation is close to even with a small underdog edge to Senegal.

The referee is appointed and researched below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Alireza Faghani · Australia

A vastly experienced official, Faghani is among the first referees appointed to four men's World Cups. His record spans Olympic finals, Asian Cup knockouts and recent international qualifiers, and he is trusted with high profile matches.

In a tie this close the official could matter at the margins, but his job here is cards, penalties and variance. The model never lets him touch the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a single strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.65 for France and 1.0 for Senegal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction for low scoring games, which produces the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for France, 26 for a draw and 22 for Senegal. The single most likely cell on the grid is a 1-1, even though France are favoured overall, which is the honest read of a tight game. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is too old to lean on, so the France win band sits at 43 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group G, Matchday 1Tue 16 Jun

Iran vs New Zealand

Iran vs New Zealand prediction: a settled Iran side meets the All Whites in the group's most open game. The model gives Iran 50 percent and calls a 1-1.

Iran 50%Draw 27%New Zealand 23%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Iran qualified early from the Asian third round and are defensively solid, with a 2-0 win over Tanzania and goalless draws against Cape Verde and Uzbekistan. New Zealand came through Oceania but lost a warm-up 4-0 to Haiti.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Iran are ranked around 20th in the world, New Zealand around 86th. A wide gap, though both sit outside the elite.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The squads are nearly level and among the lowest at the finals, Iran near 32 million euros and New Zealand near 35 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Iran are led by captain Mehdi Taremi, with a mix of domestic and Europe based players. New Zealand build around Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest, with MLS and lower tier European players around him.
Availability and injuries
Iran left out striker Sardar Azmoun for reasons reported as off field rather than injury, a notable absence, with Taremi fit and central. New Zealand named a settled squad with thin depth.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Stadium is neutral and the opener for both, so neither side holds a rest or home edge.
Head to head
The sides last met in 2003, a 3-0 Iran win. Too old to carry signal, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
This is the most winnable game in the group for both, close to a must win for round of 32 hopes. Iran are favourites and treat it as a platform, New Zealand are motivated at their first finals since 2010.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Cesar Arturo Ramos · Mexico

An experienced CONCACAF and FIFA referee who has worked previous World Cups.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.61 for Iran and 1.03 for New Zealand. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for Iran, 27 for a draw and 23 for New Zealand, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is too old to use, so the Iran win band sits at 41 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group H, Matchday 1Mon 15 Jun

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay prediction: Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay and their European core against a home based Saudi side. The model gives Uruguay 59 percent and calls a 0-1.

Saudi Arabia 17%Draw 24%Uruguay 59%

Called 0-1. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Uruguay arrive in mixed but solid shape, a 0-0 with Mexico and wins over Uzbekistan and the Dominican Republic, with a heavy loss to the USA in the mix. Saudi Arabia have been patchy, a 3-1 win over Comoros but a loss to Jordan and a draw with the UAE.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Uruguay are ranked 16th in the world, Saudi Arabia 61st. A wide gap the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Uruguay are valued near 359 million euros, Saudi Arabia near 41 million euros, a difference of many multiples.
Player level by league and club
Uruguay field elite Europe based talent, Federico Valverde, Ronald Araujo, Manuel Ugarte and Darwin Nunez. Saudi Arabia are almost entirely home based, led by captain Salem Al Dawsari of Al Hilal.
Availability and injuries
Uruguay carry defensive doubts, with Araujo and Gimenez reported likely to miss the opener and Arrascaeta a doubt. Saudi Arabia named a largely full strength domestic squad with no confirmed absences.
Venue, travel and rest
Miami Stadium is neutral and the opener for both. Uruguay reportedly faced a minor travel delay into Miami, a small adverse note.
Head to head
Three meetings, level overall, with the only competitive one a 1-0 Uruguay win at the 2018 World Cup. Thin, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong start in a group that also holds Spain. Uruguay are dark horses under Bielsa, Saudi Arabia chase a statement result in their seventh World Cup.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Maurizio Mariani · Italy

A Serie A referee, FIFA listed since 2019 and in the UEFA elite category since 2024, at his first World Cup.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.85 for Saudi Arabia and 1.82 for Uruguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 59 for Uruguay, 24 for a draw and 17 for Saudi Arabia, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is thin, so the Saudi Arabia win band sits low at 11 to 23.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group G, Matchday 1Mon 15 Jun

Belgium vs Egypt

Belgium vs Egypt prediction: Kevin De Bruyne opens what may be his last World Cup against Mohamed Salah and Egypt. The model gives Belgium 58 percent and calls a 1-1.

Belgium 58%Draw 25%Egypt 17%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Belgium won their European qualifying group and arrive in strong shape after heavy late wins in qualifying. Egypt have been streaky, with a 4-0 friendly win over Saudi Arabia and a 0-0 with Spain, but a recent 2-1 loss to Brazil.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Belgium are ranked around 8th in the world, Egypt around 34th. A clear gap the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Belgium are valued near 548 million euros, a top ten squad at the finals. Egypt sit near 117 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Belgium are built on big league talent, Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku, Romelu Lukaku and Thibaut Courtois. Egypt lean on Mohamed Salah at Liverpool and Omar Marmoush at Manchester City, with much of the rest in the Egyptian league.
Availability and injuries
Belgium name De Bruyne, Lukaku and Doku, with Lukaku possibly managed off the bench. Salah carried a late season hamstring issue and is reported available but not certainly at full sharpness.
Venue, travel and rest
Vancouver Stadium is a neutral venue and the opener for both, so neither side holds a rest or home edge.
Head to head
The sides have met four times, all friendlies, with Egypt winning the most recent 2-1 in 2022. Friendly only, so the model logs it but leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a winning start in a group with a real path to the knockouts. Belgium are favourites in what is likely De Bruyne's final World Cup, Egypt see a Salah led upset as their tournament defining chance.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Ramon Abatti · Brazil

A CONMEBOL official listed on the 2026 World Cup refereeing roster. His detailed card and penalty record was not confirmed in the sources used, so he enters the model only as variance.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.79 for Belgium and 0.88 for Egypt. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 58 for Belgium, 25 for a draw and 17 for Egypt, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Belgium edge the win. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is friendly only, so the Belgium win band sits at 49 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 6

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group HMon 15 Jun

Spain vs Cabo Verde

Spain vs Cabo Verde prediction: a fairytale World Cup debut runs into the reigning European champions. The model gives Cabo Verde 6% and calls a 2-0.

Spain 76%Draw 18%Cabo Verde 6%

Called 2-0. Final 0-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, last ~10 matches, friendlies discounted
Spain arrive as reigning European champions in strong form. Cabo Verde impressed in qualifying and won 3-0 against Serbia in a warm-up, but against weaker opposition than they meet here.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Spain rank second in the world, Cabo Verde sixty-ninth. This is the single largest strength gap the model sees.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt)
Spain field one of the most valuable squads at the finals; Cabo Verde one of the least valuable, a difference of many multiples.
Player ratings weighted by league and club
Spain's likely eleven play for elite clubs in the strongest leagues. Cabo Verde's are spread across mid-tier European sides, which lowers their bottom-up rating.
Injury and suspension reports
Spain carry a fitness doubt over a key attacker but have the depth to absorb it. Cabo Verde are close to full strength.
Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta is a neutral stage with neither side at home, so this barely moves the gap.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong opener. Cabo Verde carry the emotion of a first World Cup, Spain the intent of clear favourites, so motivation is close to even.

Two inputs stay out of the winner maths. The sides have never met, so there is no head to head, and the referee is researched in full below but never enters the model's winner.

The official

Adham Makhadmeh · Jordan

A FIFA international referee since 2013, the 39 year old from Irbid is at his first World Cup. His major tournament work includes the 2019 Asian Cup opener, a group game at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, the first leg of the 2017 AFC Champions League final, and recent 2026 Asian qualifiers such as the United Arab Emirates' 1-1 draw with North Korea.

He is not a card happy official. Across a logged sample of his earlier matches he averaged a little over three yellows and roughly one red every five games, and awarded penalties sparingly. The sample is partial, so read it as a tendency rather than an exact rate.

His standing has been uneven. A difficult 2019, including a criticised Asian Cup opener, set him back, and his recent Arab Cup outings drew criticism, among them an early on field VAR review that overturned one of his calls. The AFC still trusts him with technically demanding matches.

In a match this lopsided the official is very unlikely to decide the result. His moderate card profile points to a clean game rather than a chaotic one, so in the model he touches only the cards, penalty and variance picture, never the winner.

The math

The engine turns the signals into a strength gap between the two teams, then into the goals each side is expected to score: 2.22 for Spain and 0.51 for Cabo Verde. Those expectations are fed through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction for low scoring games, which produces the probability of every possible result. Summed up, that is the 76, 18 and 6 above, and the single most likely cell in the grid is 2-0. The data here is rich, scoring 0.95 out of 1.0, so the model leans on what it found rather than regressing toward the ranking alone. Where data is thin it does the opposite, pulling its estimate back toward the ranking and widening the band, which is why a debutant with little record always carries more uncertainty.

2.4k184

How this changed

31 May72% Spain

Opening forecast before final squads were named, held wider while data was thin.

12 Jun76% Spain

Tightened toward Spain as the squads, form and kickoff details firmed up. No injury news has moved the line yet.

What happened

0-0Missed · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Tunisia vs Sweden

Tunisia vs Sweden prediction: a defensive Tunisia against Sweden's elite strike pair of Isak and Gyokeres.

Tunisia 21%Draw 26%Sweden 53%

Called 1-1. Final 1-5, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Sweden arrive with the more dangerous attack, Tunisia with a disciplined defensive shape.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Sweden a little higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Sweden hold a clear squad value edge, carrying two elite strikers.
Player level by league and club
Sweden build around Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, Tunisia around a compact, experienced block.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Monterrey with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong start, Sweden the favourites on firepower.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.98 for Tunisia and 1.67 for Sweden. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 21 for Tunisia, 26 for a draw and 53 for Sweden, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Tunisia win band sits at 14 to 30.

2.4k184

What happened

1-5Missed · we picked 1-1

Sweden ran riot to beat Tunisia 5-1 in Monterrey. Anis Ben Slimane's side were undone by a Bilal Ayari brace either side of the game, with Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Svanberg also scoring, Rekik's strike a brief reply. The rout sent Sweden top at that stage, though Netherlands and Japan ultimately went through. The model leaned Sweden, just nowhere near this margin.

The controversy

Nothing was disputed in a one sided night. Sweden's finishing, not the officials, told the story.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast prediction: a Moises Caicedo led Ecuador against a top five league stocked Ivory Coast.

Ecuador 39%Draw 28%Ivory Coast 33%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Two well matched sides, Ecuador organised and hard to beat, Ivory Coast carrying real European pedigree.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Ecuador are ranked around twenty third, Ivory Coast close behind.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, with little to separate the two.
Player level by league and club
Ecuador build around Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho, Ivory Coast around Amad Diallo and a top five league core.
Availability and injuries
Both squads were close to full, though lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A near even tie that could shape second place in Group E.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.37 for Ecuador and 1.24 for Ivory Coast. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 39 for Ecuador, 28 for a draw and 33 for Ivory Coast, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Ecuador win band sits at 29 to 49.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Ivory Coast edged Ecuador 1-0 for their first World Cup win in twelve years. Ecuador dominated the first half and hit the woodwork, but the chances would not fall, and Amad Diallo struck the late winner to settle a tight Group E meeting. The model had it as a coin flip, and the margin proved as fine as expected, just the wrong way for the favourite tag.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. Ecuador's missed chances, not the officials, decided it.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Türkiye vs Australia

Türkiye vs Australia prediction: a talented Türkiye against a stubborn Socceroos side to open Group D.

Türkiye 47%Draw 27%Australia 26%

Called 1-1. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Türkiye arrive with the higher ceiling, Australia with organisation and running.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Türkiye are ranked twenty second, Australia a little lower.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Türkiye field the more valuable squad in the group, Australia a more modest base.
Player level by league and club
Türkiye carry Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu, Australia a hard working collective.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Vancouver with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A group opener with both eyeing a strong start in Group D.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.56 for Türkiye and 1.08 for Australia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 47 for Türkiye, 27 for a draw and 26 for Australia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Türkiye win band sits at 37 to 58.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Australia upset Türkiye 2-0 in Vancouver to open Group D. Nestory Irankunda drilled in a low shot on 27 minutes and Connor Metcalfe doubled the lead on 75, as a disciplined Socceroos performance shut Türkiye's talent down. We had Türkiye favoured, and the result was a clear miss, with Australia the sharper side on the night.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. Australia's organisation, not the officials, settled it.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Netherlands vs Japan

Netherlands vs Japan prediction: a deep Netherlands against a fluid, Europe based Japan in the pick of Group F.

Netherlands 52%Draw 26%Japan 22%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The Netherlands arrive among the favourites, Japan as a fluid, well coached side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The Netherlands sit comfortably inside the top ten, Japan a touch lower but rising.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The Netherlands field a clearly more valuable squad, Japan a deep European based group.
Player level by league and club
The Netherlands carry Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo, Japan a fast, technical core in Kamada and Mitoma.
Availability and injuries
Both squads were close to full, though lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A likely group decider, both wanting the early platform in Group F.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.65 for Netherlands and 1.0 for Japan. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for Netherlands, 26 for a draw and 22 for Japan, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Netherlands win band sits at 41 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

The Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2 in a thriller in Dallas. Van Dijk headed the Dutch in front on 50 minutes and Summerville made it two on 64, but Nakamura pulled one back and Daichi Kamada's last gasp deflected finish from a corner snatched a point for Japan. The Netherlands still topped Group F in the end, with the model's narrow lean undone by a dramatic finish.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. The drama was in Kamada's late equaliser, not the officiating.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Germany vs Curacao

Germany vs Curacao prediction: a billion euro Germany against one of the smallest nations ever to qualify.

Germany 81%Draw 15%Curacao 4%

Called 2-0. Final 7-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany arrive among the favourites and in fine form, Curacao as plucky debutants.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Germany are ranked around ninth, Curacao far down the order as one of the smallest nations ever to qualify.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Curacao one of the least.
Player level by league and club
Germany carry Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz, Curacao a scattered, lower league base.
Availability and injuries
Germany are without Marc Andre ter Stegen, but the depth absorbs it, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Houston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany want a statement start, Curacao the joy of a first ever finals appearance.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.36 for Germany and 0.39 for Curacao. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 81 for Germany, 15 for a draw and 4 for Curacao, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Germany win band sits at 73 to 88.

2.4k184

What happened

7-1Right call · we picked 2-0

Germany overwhelmed Curacao 7-1 in Houston. Curacao stunned the favourites through Comenencia, but Germany hit back at once and led 3-1 by half time through Nmecha, Schlotterbeck and a Havertz penalty, then ran riot after the break with Musiala, Brown, Undav and a second Havertz goal. The rout went beyond the model's predicted margin but never beyond its lean.

The controversy

Nothing was disputed in a one sided night. Curacao's early goal was the only surprise before Germany took over.

Forecast1 / 6

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 1Sat 13 Jun

Qatar vs Switzerland

Qatar vs Switzerland 1-1: Embolo's disputed VAR penalty, Swiss dominance all night, then a 90+4 own goal. The 64% favourite settled for a draw.

Qatar 13%Draw 23%Switzerland 64%

Called 0-2. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Competitive form, late 2024 onwards (friendlies discounted)
Switzerland have been unbeaten in competitive fixtures since late 2024. Qatar are reigning Asian champions (2024) but limped through World Cup qualifying with one point from two playoff matches against the UAE and North Korea. The form gap is wide and clearly favours Switzerland.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Switzerland sit 19th with around 1650 points. Qatar are 56th. A real-strength gap the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Switzerland's squad is valued at roughly €330m; Qatar's at roughly €21m. The cheapest squad at the tournament by a clear margin.
Player level by league and club
Most Swiss starters play in the top five European leagues, with Akanji, Xhaka and Ndoye among them. Qatar's squad is built almost entirely from the Qatar Stars League, which lowers the bottom-up rating considerably.
Availability and injuries
Qatar arrive at full strength. Switzerland carry a pre-match doubt around Embolo, who was initially denied entry to the United States; given squad depth the model weights this only lightly.
Venue, travel and rest
Levi's Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area is a neutral venue with neither side at home. Travel impact is symmetric.
Head to head
The only previous meeting was a 2018 friendly that Qatar won 1-0. It is old and non-competitive, so the model down-weights it heavily.
Stakes and motivation
Both sides open their World Cup here. Qatar arrive with a redemption motive after their 2022 home tournament; the model adds a tiny edge for them on motivation only.

The referee is researched in full below but never enters the model's winner. Only its cards, penalty and variance picture.

The official

Said Martinez · Honduras

Hector Said Martinez Sorto, 34, has been a FIFA international since 2017 and CONCACAF's leading referee for years. He is the first Honduras-born referee to take charge of a match at a senior men's World Cup. At Qatar 2022 he served as an assistant in nine matches. His major-final CV includes the 2021 Gold Cup final and the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League final, where he is nicknamed 'El Matematico' for his calm, measured style.

His card profile is moderate: roughly 3.3 yellows, 23 fouls and about 0.10 reds per match across logged samples; one larger sample suggests up to 4.22 yellows. He whistles few fouls relative to peers, lets the game flow and rarely reaches for a second yellow.

Martinez has been the subject of CONCACAF political attention but has avoided the high-profile errors that mark other regional referees. His Nations League final ran cleanly. Where decisions have drawn debate, the criticism has typically focused on VAR communication rather than his on-field calls.

Against a 64 percent Switzerland favourite, Martinez is very unlikely to swing the winner. His permissive style points toward fewer cards and a freer-flowing match. In the model he touches only the cards, penalty likelihood and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals are folded into a strength gap, which becomes the expected goals for each side: 1.92 for Switzerland, 0.76 for Qatar. Those Lambdas are fed through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring games, producing the probability of every possible result. Summed up, that is 13 for Qatar, 23 for a draw and 64 for Switzerland; the single most likely cell on the grid is 2-0 Switzerland. Data quality is full at 1.0, so the model leans on what it has rather than regressing toward the ranking alone. A Qatar win sits in the 9 to 19 percent band, narrow but not zero.

2.4k184

How this changed

27 May58% Switzerland

Opening estimate before final squads were named. Switzerland clear favourites, but the line held wider while data was thin.

12 Jun64% Switzerland

Matchday estimate after final squads, lineups and the Embolo entry doubt. The model tightened toward Switzerland; the Qatar-win band narrowed to 9-19 percent.

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-2

Switzerland Qatar finished 1-1 in the San Francisco Bay Area, Qatar's first ever World Cup point. Switzerland led early through an Embolo penalty after a foul by goalkeeper Abunada on Remo Freuler, and dominated for long stretches: Ndoye twice forced sharp saves, Xhaka rattled the crossbar, and Akanji nodded just wide. The equaliser arrived in the fourth minute of stoppage time, an unfortunate Miro Muheim own goal from a deflected cross. The 2-0 Switzerland call missed; the actual scoreline 1-1 sat inside the model's 23 percent draw bucket.

The controversy

Switzerland Qatar penalty offside VAR controversy: the only goal Switzerland scored came from a contested penalty. Replays of the build-up suggested an offside in the move, with Freuler appearing to make two touches and a teammate possibly active in his line of vision. After a long VAR check, FIFA's semi-automated offside technology ruled Freuler was onside by centimetres and the penalty stood. FIFA did not publish the calibration lines on the broadcast feed; ITV's Gary Neville and Lee Dixon both said it looked offside to the naked eye. The criticism landed on VAR transparency rather than on Said Martinez, whose on-field decision-making went unchallenged.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2Sat 13 Jun

Brazil vs Morocco

Brazil vs Morocco prediction: five times champions Brazil against the 2022 semifinalists Morocco, the pick of Group C.

Brazil 49%Draw 27%Morocco 24%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil arrive among the favourites, Morocco as the strongest of the chasers and 2022 semifinalists.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Morocco around twelfth, a meaningful but not huge gap.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Morocco a clear step below but well stocked.
Player level by league and club
Brazil carry Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, Morocco a Europe based core in Hakimi, Amrabat and Ziyech.
Availability and injuries
Brazil managed a few attacking knocks, so availability is treated as slightly reduced.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Older meetings only, discounted, so the head to head barely moves the call.
Stakes and motivation
A likely group decider, both chasing top spot in Group C.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.6 for Brazil and 1.04 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Brazil, 27 for a draw and 24 for Morocco, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.95, so the Brazil win band sits at 41 to 58.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in a high class Group C meeting. Ismael Saibari put Morocco ahead on 21 minutes before Vinicius Junior levelled with a stunner just after the half hour, and a late Alisson double save preserved the point. Brazil topped the group on goal difference, Morocco finished second, both through. Our forecast caught the closeness if not the exact goals.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. The talking point was Alisson's late double save rather than any refereeing call.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 1Sat 13 Jun

Scotland vs Haiti

Scotland vs Haiti prediction: Scotland chasing a first ever knockout stage against a spirited Haiti.

Scotland 57%Draw 25%Haiti 18%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Scotland arrive the steadier side, Haiti spirited but light on goals.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Scotland sit well above Haiti in the FIFA ranking, one of the group's wider gaps.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Scotland's squad value is several multiples above Haiti's modest total.
Player level by league and club
Scotland lean on John McGinn and a Premier League spine, Haiti on Duckens Nazon and a scattered base.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Scotland carry the weight of a long wait for knockout football, Haiti the freedom of underdogs.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.76 for Scotland and 0.91 for Haiti. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 57 for Scotland, 25 for a draw and 18 for Haiti, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Scotland win band sits at 46 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 to climb to the top of Group C. John McGinn settled a tense night with a deflected finish on 28 minutes, and Scotland held on as Brazil and Morocco drew earlier in the day. The narrow win was enough and matched the model's lean, even if the single goal kept it tighter than the favourites would have liked.

The controversy

Nothing significant was disputed. The winner took a deflection but the decision itself drew no protest.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D, Matchday 2Fri 12 Jun

USA vs Paraguay

USA vs Paraguay prediction: co-hosts USA in front of a home crowd against Gustavo Alfaro's Paraguay.

USA 53%Draw 26%Paraguay 21%

Called 1-1. Final 4-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA arrive with home momentum and a Europe based core, Paraguay organised under Gustavo Alfaro.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The USA are ranked around seventeenth, Paraguay in the forties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA hold a clear squad value edge over a more domestic Paraguay.
Player level by league and club
The USA build around Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, Paraguay around Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed some fitness scares before the finals, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A home crowd gives the co-hosts a clear lift, which the model adds.
Head to head
A thin recent head to head, lightly weighted.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a winning platform early in Group D.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.68 for USA and 0.97 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for USA, 26 for a draw and 21 for Paraguay, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the USA win band sits at 43 to 63.

2.4k184

What happened

4-1Missed · we picked 1-1

The USA thumped Paraguay 4-1 in their World Cup opener. A Bobadilla own goal inside seven minutes set the tone, Folarin Balogun struck twice before half time, and Gio Reyna added a late fourth, with Mauricio's strike a consolation. The clinical first half display matched the model's lean to the USA, even if the margin ran beyond the most likely scoreline.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The early own goal settled the USA and the night passed without a major decision.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 2Fri 12 Jun

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: co-hosts Canada in Toronto against Edin Dzeko's Bosnia.

Canada 43%Draw 28%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Canada arrive with home momentum, Bosnia organised around an experienced spine.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Canada marginally higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are similar, Canada edging it on their European based attackers.
Player level by league and club
Canada build around Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, Bosnia around Edin Dzeko and a veteran core.
Availability and injuries
Matchday lineups were not fully set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto gives co-host Canada a clear home crowd, a real lift the model adds.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chasing a first points of the group, Canada carrying home expectation.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.45 for Canada and 1.17 for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Canada, 28 for a draw and 29 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Canada win band sits at 33 to 53.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Canada and Bosnia drew 1-1 in Toronto, and the point made history for the co-hosts. Lukic put Bosnia ahead on 21 minutes, but substitute Cyle Larin levelled in the 78th to earn Canada their first ever World Cup point, after losing all six matches across 1986 and 2022. Our 1-1 forecast landed on the most likely cell of the grid.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. Canada pushed for a winner without a contested decision shaping the night.

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group AThu 11 Jun

Mexico vs South Africa

Mexico vs South Africa 2-0: home soil, opening-night noise, and a World Cup curtain-raiser that landed exactly where the model said it would.

Mexico 58%Draw 26%South Africa 16%

Called 2-0. Final 2-0, Hit.

The signals

Home advantage as tournament co-host
Mexico opened on home soil, a strong lift the model adds on top of the ranking gap.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking
Mexico ranked comfortably above South Africa going into the tournament.
Opening-match scoring patterns for host nations
Host nations win their opener far more often than ranking alone suggests, which the model factors in.
Recent CONCACAF and CAF form lines
Both arrived with mixed form, but Mexico's run was the steadier of the two.

Referee history was available and entered only as a cards and variance signal.

The math

A home advantage term on top of the ranking gap pushed Mexico's win probability to 58 percent. Expected goals came out near 1.7 to 0.6, and the Poisson model placed 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 as the three most likely scorelines. We published 2-0 as the single best estimate.

2.4k184

How this changed

8 Jun55% Mexico

First estimate two days out, with home advantage but real respect for South Africa.

10 Jun58% Mexico

Nudged toward Mexico once the lineup was confirmed. Final result 2-0, the call held.

What happened

2-0Hit · we picked 2-0

Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 in the World Cup 2026 opener on home soil, exactly as the model called it. Mexico went in front before the half-hour, controlled possession after the break and saw out the second goal inside the final twenty minutes. South Africa's clearest chances came on the counter and did not survive contact with the box. The 2-0 prediction landed on the most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. A late South Africa appeal for a penalty was waved away and not sent to VAR; the on-field call was widely accepted on replay. The referee booked four players across the night and the match was cleanly officiated.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 1Thu 11 Jun

Czechia vs South Korea

Czechia vs South Korea prediction: Patrik Schick's Czechia against a Son Heung-min led South Korea on opening day.

Czechia 31%Draw 28%South Korea 41%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Both arrive solid but unspectacular, Czechia built around Patrik Schick, South Korea around a settled core.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
South Korea sit a little higher in the FIFA ranking, around the mid twenties, with Czechia in the thirties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, South Korea edging it on their European based spine.
Player level by league and club
South Korea carry Lee Kang-in and Kim Min-jae with Son Heung-min, Czechia lean on Schick and Ladislav Krejci.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A tight opener in a balanced Group A, both desperate for a winning start.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.2 for Czechia and 1.42 for South Korea. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for Czechia, 28 for a draw and 41 for South Korea, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Czechia win band sits at 22 to 41.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

South Korea came from behind to beat Czechia 2-1 on opening day. Ladislav Krejci headed Czechia in front just before the hour, but Hwang In-beom levelled in the 67th minute and Oh Hyeon-gyu struck the winner on 80 to settle a tense Group A opener. Our call had it close, and so it proved, with the late South Korea push the difference.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The game turned on South Korea's quality off the bench rather than a refereeing call.

Forecasts that go on the record.

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Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin

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San Diego vs Philadelphia Union

San Diego host Philadelphia Union on Matchday 25 with the forecast calling a tight contest that favors the visitors despite home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium.

US Open 2026

Alexander ZverevvsBen Shelton

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 57 percent.

History

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Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders

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Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal

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FC Dallas and Portland Timbers meet at Toyota Stadium on Matchday 25 in a fixture the model leans toward the hosts, though a draw remains a genuine possibility.

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

Orlando City SC host Toronto FC on Matchday 25 of MLS 2026, with our model backing the home side but only just.

Inter Miami vs Nashville SC

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FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

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DC United vs Atlanta United FC

DC United host Atlanta United FC at Audi Field with the model leaning toward the hosts despite a wobbling recent run. A 1-1 draw is the single most likely outcome in this matchday 25 clash.

Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

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Elena Rybakina came through.

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Ben Shelton came through.

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Alexander Zverev came through.

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Aryna Sabalenka came through.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Thomas Muller and Vancouver Whitecaps host Los Angeles Galaxy in a tight Matchday 24 clash that the model leans toward the home side, though a draw remains very much in play.

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

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