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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · FinalSun 19 Jul

Spain vs Argentina

Spain vs Argentina prediction: the World Cup final in New Jersey, the European champions against the reigning world champions. The market leans to Spain, 41 percent in ninety minutes and 60 percent to lift the trophy, with a 2-1 call.

Spain 41%Draw 32%Argentina 27%

Called 2-1. Final 1-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form
Both reached the final as the form sides of their half, Spain past France in the semi, Argentina past England, neither losing across the knockout rounds.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Two of the top three sides in the world, Argentina the reigning champions, Spain the reigning European champions, with barely a place between them.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Spain hold one of the most valuable squads at the finals through their midfield depth, Argentina a shade lower on paper but built around proven winners.
Player level by league and club
Champions League talent throughout both sides, Spain controlling games through possession, Argentina carrying the tournament know how of their 2022 core.
Availability and injuries
Final lineups were not confirmed when the forecast was built, so availability is treated as incomplete and the win band held wide.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral final at MetLife Stadium with equal rest, so neither side carries a physical edge into kickoff.
Head to head
A storied but infrequent recent rivalry, so the head to head enters the model only lightly and near neutral.
Stakes and motivation
The biggest prize in the sport, Spain chasing a first World Cup since 2010, Argentina chasing back to back titles.

The referee appointment for the final had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.5 for Spain and 1.2 for Argentina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Spain, 32 for a draw and 27 for Argentina, with 2-1 the single most likely decisive scoreline. Data quality is 0.82 with final lineups still to be named, so the Spain win band sits at 31 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Right call · we picked 2-1

Spain advanced after extra time.

Spain 1 Argentina 0 after extra time. Goals: Ferrán Torres 106 for Spain. Spain advanced after extra time.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · 3rd Place FinalSat 18 Jul

France vs England

France and England contest the World Cup third place playoff on neutral ground. Our model gives France a slight edge at 38% to win, with the game most likely settling at 1-0.

France 38%Draw 28%England 34%

Called 1-0. Final 4-6, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
France's last 5 tracked results show four wins before a loss to Spain; England also won four straight before falling to Argentina.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
France ranked 3rd, England 4th in the June 2026 FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, supporting a marginal France advantage.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral venue with both teams on comparable rest removes home advantage as a factor.
Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
France won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides, with 1 draw and 0 losses for England.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.36 for France and 1.25 for England. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for France, 34 for England and 28 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the France win band is held at 23 to 55.

2.4k184

What happened

4-6Missed · we picked 1-0

England advanced.

France 4 England 6 at full time. Goals: D. Rice 3 for England, E. Konsa 18 for England, B. Saka 37 for England, B. Saka 45+1 for England, K. Mbappe 48 for France, B. Barcola 54 for France, K. Mbappe 66 for France, B. Saka 87 for England penalty, O. Dembele 90+6 for France, J. Bellingham 90+8 for England. England advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-finalsWed 15 Jul

England vs Argentina

England vs Argentina prediction: a heavyweight World Cup semi-final in Atlanta, the reigning champions against England. The model favours Argentina at 43 percent and calls a 1-2.

England 28%Draw 29%Argentina 43%

Called 1-2. Final 1-2, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form
Argentina ground past Switzerland after extra time, England edged Norway the same way, both winning ugly when it mattered rather than cruising.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Argentina, the reigning world champions, sit at or near the top of the ranking, with England a little behind but firmly among the elite.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
England carry one of the highest squad values at the finals, Argentina a shade lower on paper but with a spine of proven winners.
Player level by league and club
Both are stocked with Champions League talent, Argentina led by the tournament know how of their 2022 core, England by a deep, in form attack.
Availability and injuries
Semi-final lineups are not yet named, so availability is treated as incomplete and the win band is held wide.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral semi-final in Atlanta with comparable rest, so neither side carries a meaningful physical edge into kickoff.
Head to head
A charged history at World Cups, but recent meetings are few, so the head to head enters the model only lightly.
Stakes and motivation
One win from a World Cup final for both, Argentina chasing back to back titles, England chasing a first since 1966.

The referee appointment for this semi-final had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.05 for England and 1.60 for Argentina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for England, 29 for a draw and 43 for Argentina, with 1-2 the single most likely decisive scoreline. Data quality is 0.80 with semi-final lineups still to be named, so the England win band sits at 18 to 38.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Hit · we picked 1-2

Argentina advanced.

Argentina beat England 2-1 in the semi-final to set up a final against Spain. The reigning champions found a way in exactly the kind of tight knockout they have made their own, and move within one win of back to back titles. We tipped Argentina to advance and called the 1-2 scoreline exactly.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-finalsTue 14 Jul

France vs Spain

France vs Spain prediction: two of the pre-tournament favourites collide in the World Cup semi-final in Dallas. The model leans a fraction to Spain at 40 percent and calls a 1-2.

France 32%Draw 28%Spain 40%

Called 1-2. Final 0-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form
Both arrive unbeaten in the knockouts, France past Morocco 2-0, Spain past Belgium 2-1, each looking the more assured the deeper the tournament has run.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Spain and France sit inside the top three of the world ranking, separated by very little, which is why the model keeps the gap slim.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Two of the most valuable squads at the finals, Spain deep through midfield, France carrying elite pace and finishing in the wide areas.
Player level by league and club
Champions League regulars throughout both sides, so individual quality barely separates them and the tie hinges on control of midfield.
Availability and injuries
Semi-final lineups are not yet named, so availability is treated as incomplete and the win band is held wide.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral semi-final in Dallas with comparable rest, so no side carries a meaningful physical edge into kickoff.
Head to head
A long and close recent rivalry with little between them, so the head to head enters the model as near neutral.
Stakes and motivation
A World Cup final is one win away for both, the ceiling of the tournament, so motivation is maximal on each side.

The referee appointment for this semi-final had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.15 for France and 1.55 for Spain. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for France, 28 for a draw and 40 for Spain, with 1-2 the single most likely decisive scoreline. Data quality is 0.80 with semi-final lineups still to be named, so the France win band sits at 22 to 42.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Right call · we picked 1-2

Spain advanced.

Spain beat France 2-0 in the semi-final to reach the World Cup final. Control in midfield told in the end, and Spain saw the game out without the late scare their route to the final had threatened. We tipped Spain to advance, and that call landed.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Sun 12 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner

Alexander Zverev 3%Jannik Sinner 97%

Jannik Sinner won. 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-4

The read

Alexander Zverev 3%Jannik Sinner 97%

Jannik Sinner is favoured at 97 percent against Alexander Zverev, the implied probability from the Winamax (DE) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Winamax (DE) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon

Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsSun 12 Jul

Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina face Switzerland in a World Cup quarter-final where the gap in ranking and recent form suggests a clear favourite, yet knockout football always carries risk.

Argentina 49%Draw 27%Switzerland 24%

Called 2-1. Final 3-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Argentina won all five recent matches including commanding victories. Switzerland drew twice and won three, showing less consistency.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina ranked 1st globally, Switzerland 19th as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground at Arrowhead Stadium with comparable rest for both teams.
Head to head (API-Football, last 1)
Argentina won the sole recent meeting between these sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.59 for Argentina and 1.05 for Switzerland. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Argentina, 24 for Switzerland and 27 for a draw, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Argentina win band is held at 33 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Right call · we picked 2-1

Argentina advanced after extra time.

Argentina 3 Switzerland 1 after extra time. Goals: A. Mac Allister 10 for Argentina, D. Ndoye 67 for Switzerland, J. Alvarez 112 for Argentina, L. Martinez 120+1 for Argentina. B. Embolo of Switzerland sent off 72. Argentina advanced after extra time.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsSat 11 Jul

Norway vs England

England are favored to beat Norway in this World Cup quarter-final, but the prediction comes with notable uncertainty. Our model gives England a 49% chance to win, though a draw remains very possible at 27%.

Norway 24%Draw 27%England 49%

Called 1-2. Final 1-2, Hit.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Norway have won four of their last five games but suffered a heavy loss to France. England have also won four of five with one draw, showing slightly more control.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
England ranked 4th, Norway 32nd, a significant gap favoring the Three Lions.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral venue in Miami with comparable rest for both sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.04 for Norway and 1.60 for England. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 24 for Norway, 49 for England and 27 for a draw, with 1-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Norway win band is held at 12 to 39.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Hit · we picked 1-2

England advanced after extra time.

Norway 1 England 2 after extra time. Goals: A. Schjelderup 36 for Norway, J. Bellingham 45+2 for England, J. Bellingham 93 for England. England advanced after extra time.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Sat 11 JulWimbledon 2026

Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova

Karolina Muchova 58%Linda Noskova 42%

Linda Noskova won. 6-2, 5-7, 6-3

The read

Karolina Muchova 58%Linda Noskova 42%

Karolina Muchova is favoured at 58 percent against Linda Noskova, the implied probability from the Betfair head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betfair head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Karolina Muchova at Wimbledon

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsFri 10 Jul

Spain vs Belgium

Spain and Belgium meet in a World Cup quarter-final at SoFi Stadium with the Spanish favorites, though this knockout tie remains genuinely competitive.

Spain 40%Draw 28%Belgium 32%

Called 1-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Spain won 3 of last 5, including 1-0 vs Portugal and 4-0 vs Saudi Arabia. Belgium won 4 of last 5, with 5-1 vs New Zealand and 4-1 vs USA.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Spain ranked 2nd globally, Belgium 9th as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles is neutral, both teams on comparable rest.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.40 for Spain and 1.22 for Belgium. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for Spain, 32 for Belgium and 28 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Spain win band is held at 24 to 57.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 1-0

Spain advanced.

Spain 2 Belgium 1 at full time. Goals: F. Ruiz 30 for Spain, C. De Ketelaere 41 for Belgium, M. Merino 88 for Spain. Spain advanced.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Fri 10 JulWimbledon 2026

Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic

Jannik Sinner 80%Novak Djokovic 20%

Jannik Sinner won. 6-4, 6-4, 6-4

The read

Jannik Sinner 80%Novak Djokovic 20%

Jannik Sinner is favoured at 80 percent against Novak Djokovic, the implied probability from the Unibet (NL) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (NL) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 9 Jul

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Match1 / 4

ATP · Fri 10 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fery

Alexander Zverev 85%Arthur Fery 15%

Alexander Zverev won. 7-6, 6-2, 6-4

The read

Alexander Zverev 85%Arthur Fery 15%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 85 percent against Arthur Fery, the implied probability from the Unibet (SE) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (SE) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 9 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finalsThu 9 Jul

France vs Morocco

France face Morocco in a World Cup quarter-final where the ranking gap suggests a French advantage, but Morocco's recent form and knockout football unpredictability keep this competitive.

France 44%Draw 28%Morocco 28%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
France won their last four matches 3-1, 3-0, 4-1, and 3-0. Morocco drew twice (1-1 each) and won twice (1-0 and 4-2).
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
France ranked 3rd globally, Morocco ranked 7th, as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground at Gillette Stadium in Boston with comparable rest for both teams.
Head to head (API-Football, last 1)
France won their most recent meeting; no other head-to-head context available.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.49 for France and 1.13 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 44 for France, 28 for Morocco and 28 for a draw, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the France win band is held at 29 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

France advanced.

Same day at Wimbledon, 7 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Tue 7 Jul

Switzerland vs Colombia

Switzerland and Colombia meet in the Round of 16 with the forecast leaning slightly toward the South Americans, though this is a tight contest that could easily go either way.

Switzerland 34%Draw 28%Colombia 38%

Called 1-1. Final 0-0 (Switzerland on pens), Right call.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Switzerland 3W1D in last four games; Colombia 3W1D over same period.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Colombia ranked 13th, Switzerland 19th as of 11 June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground with comparable rest for both sides.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for Switzerland and 1.34 for Colombia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Switzerland, 38 for Colombia and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Switzerland win band is held at 19 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

0-0Right call · we picked 1-1

Switzerland advanced on penalties (4-3).

Switzerland 0 Colombia 0 after extra time. Goals: J. Quintero 120+1 for Colombia penalty, G. Xhaka 120+1 for Switzerland penalty, Z. Amdouni 120+2 for Switzerland penalty, J. Campaz 120+3 for Colombia penalty, C. Itten 120+4 for Switzerland penalty, L. Diaz 120+5 for Colombia penalty, R. Vargas 120+5 for Switzerland penalty. Switzerland won the penalty shootout 4-3 to advance.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic

Felix Auger-Aliassime 47%Novak Djokovic 53%

Novak Djokovic won. 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-7, 7-6

The read

Felix Auger-Aliassime 47%Novak Djokovic 53%

Novak Djokovic is favoured at 53 percent against Felix Auger-Aliassime, the implied probability from the Betsson head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betsson head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Tue 7 Jul

Argentina vs Egypt

Argentina face Egypt in a Round of 16 knockout tie at the 2026 World Cup. Our model leans toward Argentina to progress, but a draw in normal time is far from unlikely.

Argentina 54%Draw 26%Egypt 20%

Called 1-1. Final 3-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Argentina have won all four recent matches; Egypt have drawn three of four with one win, showing contrasting offensive momentum.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina ranked 1st globally; Egypt 29th, a significant gap in established quality.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground means no home advantage for either side and comparable rest conditions going in.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.70 for Argentina and 0.95 for Egypt. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 54 for Argentina, 20 for Egypt and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Argentina win band is held at 36 to 71.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Argentina advanced.

Argentina 3 Egypt 2 at full time. Goals: Y. Ibrahim 15 for Egypt, M. Ziko 67 for Egypt, C. Romero 79 for Argentina, L. Messi 83 for Argentina, E. Fernandez 90+2 for Argentina. Argentina advanced.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka

Karolina Muchova 45%Naomi Osaka 55%

Karolina Muchova won. 7-6, 6-4

The read

Karolina Muchova 45%Naomi Osaka 55%

Naomi Osaka is favoured at 55 percent against Karolina Muchova, the implied probability from the Tipico head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Tipico head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Karolina Muchova at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

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Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula

Coco Gauff 39%Jessica Pegula 61%

Coco Gauff won. 4-6, 6-3, 6-3

The read

Coco Gauff 39%Jessica Pegula 61%

Jessica Pegula is favoured at 61 percent against Coco Gauff, the implied probability from the 1xBet head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: 1xBet head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Coco Gauff at Wimbledon

Jessica Pegula at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

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Match1 / 4

ATP · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jannik Sinner

Jan-Lennard Struff 8%Jannik Sinner 92%

Jannik Sinner won. 7-5, 7-6, 6-3

The read

Jan-Lennard Struff 8%Jannik Sinner 92%

Jannik Sinner is favoured at 92 percent against Jan-Lennard Struff, the implied probability from the Betsson head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betsson head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

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Match1 / 4

ATP · Tue 7 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Zverev vs Jiri Lehecka

Alexander Zverev 93%Jiri Lehecka 7%

Alexander Zverev won. 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6

The read

Alexander Zverev 93%Jiri Lehecka 7%

Alexander Zverev is favoured at 93 percent against Jiri Lehecka, the implied probability from the Betfair head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betfair head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 6 Jul

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Tue 7 Jul

USA vs Belgium

USA faces Belgium in a World Cup Round of 16 match where the data leans toward the higher-ranked Europeans, but a draw into extra time is firmly in play.

USA 29%Draw 28%Belgium 43%

Called 1-1. Final 1-4, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
USA won 4-1 vs Paraguay and 2-0 vs Australia but lost 2-3 vs Türkiye; Belgium drew 1-1 vs Egypt and 0-0 vs Iran, then beat New Zealand 5-1 and Senegal 3-2.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Belgium ranked 9th globally, USA ranked 17th as of June 2026.
Venue, travel and rest
Lumen Field is neutral, offering no home advantage to either side.
Head to head (API-Football, last 2)
Belgium won both of the last two meetings between these nations.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.16 for USA and 1.46 for Belgium. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 29 for USA, 43 for Belgium and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the USA win band is held at 16 to 45.

2.4k184

What happened

1-4Missed · we picked 1-1

Belgium advanced.

USA 1 Belgium 4 at full time. Goals: C. De Ketelaere 9 for Belgium, M. Tillman 31 for USA, C. De Ketelaere 33 for Belgium, H. Vanaken 57 for Belgium, R. Lukaku 90+3 for Belgium. Belgium advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Mon 6 Jul

Portugal vs Spain

Portugal face Spain in a Round of 16 clash on July 6th, with our model backing Spain to progress despite an expected tight contest.

Portugal 32%Draw 28%Spain 40%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Portugal: mixed results with two draws and two wins. Spain: three wins and one draw, showing more consistent control.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Portugal ranked 5th, Spain ranked 2nd as of June 11 2026; lower ranking indicates stronger team.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground with comparable rest for both teams.
Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
Last four meetings: 1 Spanish win, 3 draws, 0 Portuguese wins.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

4 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.22 for Portugal and 1.39 for Spain. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 32 for Portugal, 40 for Spain and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.57 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 4 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Portugal win band is held at 18 to 48.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Spain advanced.

Portugal 0 Spain 1 at full time. Goals: M. Merino 90+1 for Spain. Spain advanced.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Mon 6 JulWimbledon 2026

Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz

Alexander Bublik 33%Taylor Fritz 67%

Taylor Fritz won. 7-6, 6-4, 6-4

The read

Alexander Bublik 33%Taylor Fritz 67%

Taylor Fritz is favoured at 67 percent against Alexander Bublik, the implied probability from the Matchbook head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Matchbook head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 5 Jul

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Match1 / 4

ATP · Mon 6 JulWimbledon 2026

Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli

Alex de Minaur 77%Flavio Cobolli 23%

Flavio Cobolli won. 7-5, 7-6, 6-3

The read

Alex de Minaur 77%Flavio Cobolli 23%

Alex de Minaur is favoured at 77 percent against Flavio Cobolli, the implied probability from the Unibet (FR) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (FR) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Alex de Minaur at Wimbledon

Flavio Cobolli at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 5 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Mon 6 Jul

Mexico vs England

Mexico host England in a Round of 16 knockout tie that our model sees as genuinely tight, with England slight favorites to advance despite Mexico's home advantage.

Mexico 34%Draw 28%England 38%

Called 1-1. Final 2-3, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Mexico won their last four matches against South Africa, South Korea, Czechia and Ecuador. England won three of their last four, with one draw against Ghana.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
England ranked 4th in the world as of June 2026, Mexico ranked 14th, making England the higher-seeded team.
Venue, travel and rest
Neutral venue in Mexico City with comparable rest for both teams.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.26 for Mexico and 1.35 for England. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Mexico, 38 for England and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Mexico win band is held at 19 to 51.

2.4k184

What happened

2-3Missed · we picked 1-1

England advanced.

Mexico 2 England 3 at full time. Goals: J. Bellingham 36 for England, J. Bellingham 38 for England, J. Quinones 42 for Mexico, H. Kane 60 for England penalty, R. Jimenez 69 for Mexico penalty. J. Quansah of England sent off 54. England advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16Sun 5 Jul

Brazil vs Norway

Brazil face Norway in a Round of 16 clash that our model sees as genuinely competitive, despite the hosts' ranking advantage. We're forecasting a draw after 90 minutes, with Brazil favored to advance.

Brazil 50%Draw 27%Norway 23%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Brazil won three of their last four tracked games including consecutive 3-0 victories; Norway showed inconsistency with a 4-1 loss to France but also wins against Iraq, Senegal and Ivory Coast.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil ranked 6th globally gives them a clear quality edge over Norway at 32nd in the official June 2026 FIFA ranking.
Venue, travel and rest
MetLife Stadium is neutral ground with comparable rest for both teams.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.61 for Brazil and 1.04 for Norway. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for Brazil, 23 for Norway and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Brazil win band is held at 32 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Norway advanced.

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Sat 4 Jul

Colombia vs Ghana

Colombia vs Ghana prediction: a Luis Diaz led Colombia against a Thomas Partey anchored Ghana. The model gives Colombia 55 percent and tips Colombia to go through.

Colombia 55%Draw 26%Ghana 19%

Called 1-0. Final 1-0, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Colombia won Group K, Ghana reached the last 32 as a best third out of Group L.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Colombia sit clearly higher in the ranking, Ghana a step below.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Colombia hold a squad value edge, Ghana a Premier League flavoured core.
Player level by league and club
Colombia carry Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez, Ghana lean on Thomas Partey and Mohammed Kudus.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Kansas City with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chase a deep run, Colombia the favourites on quality.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.73 for Colombia and 0.93 for Ghana. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 55 for Colombia, 26 for a draw and 19 for Ghana, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Colombia win band sits at 45 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Hit · we picked 1-0

Colombia advanced.

Colombia 1 Ghana 0 at full time. Goals: J. Arias 14 for Colombia. Colombia advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Fri 3 Jul

Argentina vs Cabo Verde

Argentina vs Cabo Verde prediction: the reigning world champions against the smallest nation ever to reach the knockouts. The model gives Argentina 77 percent and calls a 2-0.

Argentina 77%Draw 17%Cabo Verde 6%

Called 2-0. Final 3-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina won Group J with a perfect record, Cabo Verde reached the last 32 in a stunning debut.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Argentina are the world number one, Cabo Verde far down the order but fearless.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Cabo Verde one of the smallest.
Player level by league and club
Argentina carry Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, Cabo Verde a spirited Europe based base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Miami where Argentina will enjoy strong support.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Argentina chase back to back titles, Cabo Verde play with house money.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.24 for Argentina and 0.49 for Cabo Verde. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 77 for Argentina, 17 for a draw and 6 for Cabo Verde, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Argentina win band sits at 68 to 85.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 2-0

Argentina advanced after extra time.

Argentina 3 Cabo Verde 2 after extra time. Goals: L. Messi 29 for Argentina, D. Duarte 59 for Cape Verde Islands, L. Martinez 92 for Argentina, S. Lopes Cabral 103 for Cape Verde Islands, D. Borges 111 for Argentina own goal. Argentina advanced after extra time.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Fri 3 JulWimbledon 2026

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng

Felix Auger-Aliassime 82%Michael Zheng 18%

Felix Auger-Aliassime won. 7-6, 6-2, 6-1

The read

Felix Auger-Aliassime 82%Michael Zheng 18%

Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured at 82 percent against Michael Zheng, the implied probability from the Codere (IT) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Codere (IT) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 2 Jul

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Fri 3 Jul

Australia vs Egypt

Australia vs Egypt prediction: a stubborn Socceroos side against Mohamed Salah and Egypt. The model gives Egypt 42 percent and tips Egypt to go through.

Australia 30%Draw 28%Egypt 42%

Called 0-1. Final 1-1 (Egypt on pens), Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Australia reached the last 32 as runners up in Group D, Egypt as runners up in Group G.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Egypt marginally higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Egypt hold a squad value edge, led by their talisman, Australia a hard working collective.
Player level by league and club
Egypt build around Mohamed Salah, Australia on organisation and running.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
The last tie of the round, with a quarterfinal place at stake.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.18 for Australia and 1.44 for Egypt. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 30 for Australia, 28 for a draw and 42 for Egypt, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Australia win band sits at 21 to 40.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Egypt advanced on penalties (4-2).

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Fri 3 Jul

Switzerland vs Algeria

Switzerland vs Algeria prediction: a settled Switzerland against Riyad Mahrez and Algeria. The model gives Switzerland 45 percent and tips Switzerland to go through.

Switzerland 45%Draw 28%Algeria 27%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Switzerland won Group B, Algeria reached the last 32 as a best third after a wild 3-3 with Austria.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Switzerland sit higher in the ranking, Algeria a credible side rather than a minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Switzerland hold a squad value edge, Algeria a Europe based core.
Player level by league and club
Switzerland build around Granit Xhaka and Manuel Akanji, Algeria around Riyad Mahrez.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Vancouver with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Switzerland the steadier side, Algeria carrying attacking threat.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.52 for Switzerland and 1.11 for Algeria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 45 for Switzerland, 28 for a draw and 27 for Algeria, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Switzerland win band sits at 35 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

Switzerland advanced.

Switzerland 2 Algeria 0 at full time. Goals: Breel Embolo 10 for Switzerland, Dan Ndoye 46 for Switzerland. Switzerland advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Thu 2 Jul

Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal vs Croatia prediction: Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal against a 40 year old Luka Modric. The model gives Portugal 55 percent and tips Portugal to go through.

Portugal 55%Draw 25%Croatia 20%

Called 1-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Portugal finished second in Group K, Croatia second in Group L, two seasoned sides in the knockouts.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Portugal are ranked inside the top five, Croatia a little lower but experienced.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Portugal field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Croatia a more veteran group.
Player level by league and club
Portugal carry Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao, Croatia a spine around Luka Modric.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Toronto with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Two heavyweight names meet, with a quarterfinal at stake.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.72 for Portugal and 0.94 for Croatia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 55 for Portugal, 25 for a draw and 20 for Croatia, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Portugal win band sits at 44 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 1-0

Portugal advanced.

Portugal 2 Croatia 1 at full time. Goals: I. Perisic 53 for Croatia, C. Ronaldo 68 for Portugal penalty, G. Ramos 90+4 for Portugal. Portugal advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Thu 2 Jul

Spain vs Austria

Spain vs Austria prediction: the reigning European champions against a well drilled Austria. The model gives Spain 65 percent and calls a 2-0.

Spain 65%Draw 22%Austria 13%

Called 2-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Spain won Group H with room to spare, Austria reached the last 32 as runners up in a wild Group J.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Spain are ranked among the very top sides, Austria solidly mid table.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Spain field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Austria a well organised group.
Player level by league and club
Spain carry a deep elite core, Austria lean on David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer and Marko Arnautovic.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in the Los Angeles area with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Spain chase a deep run, Austria arrive on a high after their group heroics.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.96 for Spain and 0.74 for Austria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Spain, 22 for a draw and 13 for Austria, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Spain win band sits at 55 to 75.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Spain advanced.

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

Belgium vs Senegal

Belgium vs Senegal prediction: Kevin De Bruyne's Belgium against a deep, athletic Senegal. The model gives Belgium 43 percent and tips Belgium to go through.

Belgium 43%Draw 28%Senegal 29%

Called 1-0. Final 3-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Belgium won Group G, Senegal reached the last 32 as a best third after a strong group.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Belgium sit a little higher in the ranking, Senegal close behind.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Belgium hold a squad value edge, Senegal a deep, athletic group.
Player level by league and club
Belgium carry Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, Senegal a Premier League heavy core.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Seattle with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A heavyweight tie, both with the talent for a deep run.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.46 for Belgium and 1.17 for Senegal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Belgium, 28 for a draw and 29 for Senegal, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Belgium win band sits at 33 to 53.

2.4k184

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 1-0

Belgium advanced after extra time.

Belgium 3 Senegal 2 after extra time. Goals: H. Diarra 25 for Senegal, I. Sarr 51 for Senegal, R. Lukaku 86 for Belgium, Y. Tielemans 89 for Belgium, Y. Tielemans 120+5 for Belgium penalty. Belgium advanced after extra time.

Match1 / 4

ATP · Wed 1 JulWimbledon 2026

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic 82%Stefanos Tsitsipas 18%

Novak Djokovic won. 6-3, 6-4, 6-2

The read

Novak Djokovic 82%Stefanos Tsitsipas 18%

Novak Djokovic is favoured at 82 percent against Stefanos Tsitsipas, the implied probability from the Unibet (FR) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (FR) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 30 Jun

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

England vs DR Congo

England vs DR Congo prediction: the world number four against the best of the third placed sides. The model gives England 67 percent and calls a 2-0.

England 67%Draw 22%DR Congo 11%

Called 2-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
England won Group L, DR Congo qualified as the best ranked of the third placed teams.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
England are ranked fourth in the world, DR Congo far below but well organised.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
England field the second most valuable squad at the finals, DR Congo a fraction of that.
Player level by league and club
England carry Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, DR Congo a battling Europe based core.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Atlanta with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
England carry the weight of expectation, DR Congo the freedom of the underdog.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.99 for England and 0.71 for DR Congo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 67 for England, 22 for a draw and 11 for DR Congo, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the England win band sits at 57 to 76.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 2-0

England advanced.

Flavio Cobolli is favoured at 87 percent against Mariano Navone, the implied probability from the Unibet (NL) head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Unibet (NL) head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Flavio Cobolli at Wimbledon

Same day at Wimbledon, 30 Jun

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Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

Mexico vs Ecuador

Mexico vs Ecuador prediction: co-hosts Mexico at altitude against the side that knocked out Germany. The model gives Mexico 41 percent and tips Mexico to go through.

Mexico 41%Draw 28%Ecuador 31%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Mexico won Group A with a perfect record, Ecuador reached the last 32 by stunning Germany.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are level on ranking, both around the low twenties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, with little to separate them.
Player level by league and club
Mexico build around Edson Alvarez and a home based core, Ecuador around Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Mexico City gives the co-hosts a clear home crowd and altitude edge, which the model adds.
Head to head
A thin recent head to head, lightly weighted.
Stakes and motivation
A home knockout for Mexico, a chance for Ecuador to back up the Germany result.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.42 for Mexico and 1.2 for Ecuador. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 41 for Mexico, 28 for a draw and 31 for Ecuador, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Mexico win band sits at 31 to 52.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

Mexico advanced.

Mexico 2 Ecuador 0 at full time. Goals: J. Quinones 22 for Mexico, R. Jimenez 31 for Mexico. P. Hincapie of Ecuador sent off 90+5. Mexico advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Wed 1 Jul

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: co-hosts USA at home against Edin Dzeko's Bosnia. The model gives USA 51 percent and tips USA to go through.

USA 51%Draw 27%Bosnia and Herzegovina 22%

Called 1-0. Final 2-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA won Group D, Bosnia reached the last 32 as a best third out of Group B.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The USA are ranked around seventeenth, Bosnia a little lower.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA hold a squad value edge, Bosnia lean on an experienced spine.
Player level by league and club
The USA build around Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, Bosnia around Edin Dzeko.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed Pulisic's fitness through the group, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A home crowd in San Francisco gives the co-hosts a clear lift, which the model adds.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A home knockout for the USA, a major upset bid for Bosnia.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.64 for USA and 1.01 for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 51 for USA, 27 for a draw and 22 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the USA win band sits at 41 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

USA advanced.

USA 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 at full time. Goals: F. Balogun 45 for USA, M. Tillman 82 for USA. F. Balogun of USA sent off 64. USA advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Tue 30 Jun

France vs Sweden

France vs Sweden prediction: the world number three against the tournament's hottest strike pair. The model gives France 60 percent and calls a 1-0.

France 60%Draw 24%Sweden 16%

Called 1-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
France won Group I with a perfect record, Sweden reached the last 32 as a best third despite a 5-1 rout of Tunisia.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
France are ranked third in the world, Sweden well below but dangerous.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
France field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Sweden carry two elite strikers.
Player level by league and club
France build around Mbappe and a deep, elite core, Sweden around Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in the New York area with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Older meetings only, lightly weighted, so the head to head barely moves the call.
Stakes and motivation
France chase the title, Sweden arrive with house money and firepower.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.84 for France and 0.84 for Sweden. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 60 for France, 24 for a draw and 16 for Sweden, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the France win band sits at 50 to 70.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 1-0

France advanced.

France 3 Sweden 0 at full time. Goals: K. Mbappe 45 for France, B. Barcola 53 for France, K. Mbappe 74 for France. France advanced.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Tue 30 Jun

Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory Coast vs Norway prediction: a top five league stocked Ivory Coast against Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The model gives Norway 44 percent and tips Norway to go through.

Ivory Coast 28%Draw 28%Norway 44%

Called 0-1. Final 1-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ivory Coast finished second in Group E, Norway second in Group I behind France.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Norway marginally higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, Norway edging it on their star names.
Player level by league and club
Ivory Coast carry Amad Diallo and a top five league core, Norway lean on Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chase a first deep run, Norway in their first World Cup in a generation.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.15 for Ivory Coast and 1.48 for Norway. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for Ivory Coast, 28 for a draw and 44 for Norway, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Ivory Coast win band sits at 20 to 38.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Right call · we picked 0-1

Norway advanced.

Ivory Coast 1 Norway 2 at full time. Goals: A. Nusa 39 for Norway, A. Diallo 74 for Ivory Coast, E. Haaland 86 for Norway. Norway advanced.

Match1 / 4

WTA · Tue 30 JunWimbledon 2026

Daria Snigur vs Elina Svitolina

Daria Snigur 28%Elina Svitolina 72%

Daria Snigur won. 7-5, 6-2

The read

Ben Shelton is favoured at 67 percent against Otto Virtanen, the implied probability from the Betfair head to head odds with the bookmaker margin removed.

Source: Betfair head to head market. For entertainment, not advice.

The players

Same day at Wimbledon, 29 Jun

More

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Tue 30 Jun

Netherlands vs Morocco

Netherlands vs Morocco prediction: a deep Dutch side against the 2022 semifinalists. The model gives Netherlands 46 percent and tips Netherlands to go through.

Netherlands 46%Draw 27%Morocco 27%

Called 1-0. Final 1-1 (Morocco on pens), Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The Netherlands topped Group F, Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil on goal difference.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The Netherlands sit inside the top ten, Morocco around twelfth, a narrow gap.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The Netherlands hold a squad value edge, Morocco a deep European based group.
Player level by league and club
The Netherlands carry Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo, Morocco Hakimi, Amrabat and Ziyech.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Monterrey with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A heavyweight last 32 tie, the kind that can swing on a single moment.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.52 for Netherlands and 1.11 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for Netherlands, 27 for a draw and 27 for Morocco, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Netherlands win band sits at 35 to 56.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 1-0

Morocco advanced on penalties (3-2).

The Netherlands and Morocco finished 1-1 after extra time, and Morocco won the shootout 3-2 to reach the last 16. Cody Gakpo put the Dutch ahead, but Issa Diop headed Morocco level in the 91st minute from a Chemsdine Talbi cross to force extra time. In the shootout Morocco goalkeeper Yassine Bounou saved Crysencio Summerville's kick, and Ismael Saibari converted the winner. It sent the Netherlands home at their earliest men's World Cup exit. We tipped the Netherlands to go through, and that call missed.

The controversy

Nothing was formally disputed, the drama was a 91st minute equaliser and a decisive goalkeeper save in the shootout rather than a contested call.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Mon 29 Jun

Germany vs Paraguay

Germany vs Paraguay prediction: a billion euro Germany against Gustavo Alfaro's stubborn Paraguay. The model gives Germany 68 percent and calls a 2-0.

Germany 68%Draw 21%Paraguay 11%

Called 2-0. Final 1-1 (Paraguay on pens), Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany recovered from a shock loss to Ecuador to reach the last 32, Paraguay sneaked through as a best third.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Germany are ranked around ninth in the world, Paraguay in the forties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Paraguay many multiples below.
Player level by league and club
Germany carry Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz, Paraguay a disciplined, mostly South American base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Boston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany want to settle nerves after a wobbly group, Paraguay arrive with nothing to lose.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.02 for Germany and 0.68 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 68 for Germany, 21 for a draw and 11 for Paraguay, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Germany win band sits at 58 to 77.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

Paraguay advanced on penalties (4-3).

Germany and Paraguay finished 1-1 after extra time, and Paraguay won the shootout 4-3 to pull off one of the great World Cup upsets. Julio Enciso headed Paraguay in front on 42 minutes from a Matias Galarza cross, and Kai Havertz levelled with a glancing header from Florian Wirtz eight minutes after the break. A Jonathan Tah goal was ruled out by VAR for a foul on the goalkeeper, and after a goalless extra time it went to penalties. Havertz missed the opening kick and Germany missed three in all, while Jose Canale scored the decisive spot kick. It was the first time Germany had ever lost a World Cup shootout. We tipped Germany to go through, and that call missed.

The controversy

Germany's Jonathan Tah had a goal from a corner ruled out after a VAR review found a foul on the Paraguay goalkeeper, the night's biggest flashpoint. The decision stood on review, and Germany could not find another way through.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Mon 29 Jun

Brazil vs Japan

Brazil vs Japan prediction: five times champions Brazil against a fluid, fearless Japan. The model gives Brazil 58 percent and tips Brazil to go through.

Brazil 58%Draw 25%Japan 17%

Called 1-0. Final 2-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil topped Group C, Japan finished second in Group F after a thrilling draw with the Netherlands.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Japan a touch lower but rising fast.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Japan a deep European based group.
Player level by league and club
Brazil carry Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, Japan a quick, technical core in Kamada and Mitoma.
Availability and injuries
Brazil managed some attacking knocks, so availability is treated as slightly reduced.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Houston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Brazil chase a deep run, Japan a first ever World Cup quarterfinal.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.78 for Brazil and 0.88 for Japan. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 58 for Brazil, 25 for a draw and 17 for Japan, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Brazil win band sits at 47 to 68.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Right call · we picked 1-0

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32Sun 28 Jun

South Africa vs Canada

South Africa vs Canada prediction: the round of 32 opener, Bafana Bafana against co-hosts Canada. The model gives Canada 45 percent and tips Canada to go through.

South Africa 27%Draw 28%Canada 45%

Called 0-1. Final 0-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
South Africa reached the last 32 with a famous win over South Korea, Canada by edging Group B.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Canada sit a little higher in the ranking, with South Africa among the lower seeds left.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Canada hold a clear squad value edge through their European based attackers.
Player level by league and club
Canada build around Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, South Africa on a largely domestic base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in the Los Angeles area with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A first knockout meeting with a quarter of the draw opening up behind it.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.12 for South Africa and 1.51 for Canada. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 27 for South Africa, 28 for a draw and 45 for Canada, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the South Africa win band sits at 19 to 37.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Hit · we picked 0-1

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 3Sun 28 Jun

Jordan vs Argentina

Jordan vs Argentina prediction: World Cup debutants Jordan against the reigning champions. The model gives Argentina 82 percent and calls a 0-2.

Jordan 4%Draw 14%Argentina 82%

Called 0-2. Final 1-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina topped South American qualifying and went unbeaten through their June warm-ups, the reigning world champions. Jordan produced the best qualifying campaign in their history to reach a first World Cup.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina are ranked 1st in the world, Jordan 63rd, one of the widest gaps in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina are valued near 800 million euros, a top seven squad. Jordan are valued near 20 million euros, the lowest at the finals.
Player level by league and club
Argentina field an elite core, Lionel Messi, Enzo Fernandez, Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez. Jordan are led by Musa Al Taamari at Rennes, with most of the squad in Gulf and regional leagues.
Availability and injuries
Argentina manage several fitness calls but expect Messi to feature. Jordan are without top scorer Yazan Al Naimat. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, and Argentina may rotate if already qualified, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Dallas Stadium is a neutral, indoor venue, though Argentina carry a large travelling support, with both on similar rest.
Head to head
There is no competitive meeting on record, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Jordan, as debutants, chase a historic first point or win. Argentina may already be through and could rotate and rest Messi, which lifts Jordan's relative motivation.

Called 1-1. Final 3-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Algeria topped their African group to reach a first World Cup since 2014. Austria won their European group with a heavy goal difference, winning four of their last five qualifiers.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Austria are ranked 24th in the world, Algeria around 28th, a close contest.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The squads are nearly level, Algeria near 257 million euros and Austria near 245 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Algeria field captain Riyad Mahrez and Mohamed Amoura at Wolfsburg. Austria are anchored by David Alaba at Real Madrid, Konrad Laimer at Bayern Munich and Marcel Sabitzer, with strong Bundesliga depth.
Availability and injuries
Algeria watch a doubt over Ramy Bensebaini, with Mahrez and Amoura available. Austria have Alaba back from a knee injury and report a settled squad. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Kansas City Stadium is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Their only meeting was a 1982 World Cup game, far too old to weight, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Likely decisive for second place behind Argentina. Mahrez is in a likely final tournament, Austria chase knockout football, so motivation runs high on both sides.

Called 1-1. Final 3-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA had a mixed buildup with some heavy losses but a strong opening win. Türkiye qualified through the playoffs and pushed Spain in qualifying, an improving side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The USA are ranked 17th in the world, Türkiye 22nd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Türkiye are valued near 474 million euros, the most valuable in the group. The USA are valued near 386 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Türkiye carry elite talent, Hakan Calhanoglu at Inter and Arda Guler at Real Madrid. The USA build around Christian Pulisic at Milan, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed several fitness scares before the tournament, with Pulisic and the front line monitored. Türkiye's matchday three picture is not confirmed. Lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Stadium gives co-host USA a clear home crowd and familiarity advantage, a real lift the model adds. Türkiye are on equal rest.
Head to head
The sides have no meaningful recent meeting, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A decisive group finale. Both likely need points, with Türkiye perhaps needing a win to survive, while the USA want to top the group at home.

The referee, Mustapha Ghorbal of Algeria, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night the officiating was not the story, a rotated USA side and a last minute goal were.

The official

Mustapha Ghorbal · Algeria

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany are in excellent form, with heavy qualifying wins and a strong opening statement. Ecuador are solid but lower scoring, a defensively organised South American side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Germany are ranked around 9th in the world, Ecuador around 23rd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany are valued near 947 million euros, the fifth most valuable squad at the finals. Ecuador are valued near 369 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Germany are Champions League heavy, Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz. Ecuador carry real quality too, Moises Caicedo at Chelsea and Piero Hincapie, with Willian Pacho at Paris Saint-Germain.
Availability and injuries
Germany are without Marc Andre ter Stegen and watch Musiala's fitness. Ecuador's core is fit. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
New York New Jersey Stadium is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
The sides have met only twice, long ago, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany chase top spot and goal difference. Ecuador likely need a result to keep advancement hopes alive, so the underdog carries extra urgency.

The referee, Tori Penso of the United States, was appointed after this forecast was built. She enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night her calls, an awarded then rescinded Germany penalty above all, were central to how the result turned.

The official

Tori Penso · United States

An American FIFA referee with major assignments including the 2023 Women's World Cup final, the Paris 2024 Olympics and the FIFA Club World Cup.

Measured by her night, Penso was decisive and contested. She booked Hincapie and Pavlovic, one each, awarded Germany a Havertz penalty and then withdrew it on VAR review, while Ecuador felt a foul was missed before Sane's opener. The big calls, not the cards, shaped the upset. The pre match model never lets the official touch the winner, which is exactly why a night like this falls outside it.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.84 for Ecuador and 1.84 for Germany. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 60 for Germany, 24 for a draw and 16 for Ecuador, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because the head to head is non-informative and the matchday three lineups are not yet set, so the Ecuador win band is wide and low at 10 to 24.

2.4k184

What happened

2-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 3Thu 25 Jun

Curacao vs Ivory Coast

Curacao vs Ivory Coast prediction: World Cup debutants Curacao against a strong Ivory Coast. The model gives Ivory Coast 70 percent and calls a 0-2.

Curacao 10%Draw 20%Ivory Coast 70%

Called 0-2. Final 0-2, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ivory Coast were unbeaten in African qualifying and arrive in strong form. Curacao reached their first World Cup as one of the smallest nations ever to qualify, but were exposed in heavy company.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Ivory Coast are ranked around 33rd in the world, Curacao around 82nd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Ivory Coast are valued near 520 million euros, the most valuable African squad. Curacao are valued near 26 million euros, one of the smallest at the finals.
Player level by league and club
Ivory Coast field a full squad of Europe based players, Amad Diallo at Manchester United, Evan Ndicka at Roma and captain Franck Kessie. Curacao rely on lower and mid tier European players, Tahith Chong and the Bacuna brothers.
Availability and injuries
Ivory Coast report no major confirmed absences. Curacao carry no widely reported injuries but are thin. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia Stadium is neutral, though Ivory Coast's tournament base near Philadelphia is a small familiarity edge, with both on similar rest.
Head to head
The sides have never met, so there is no head to head and the model leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Ivory Coast play for top spot and qualification. Curacao face a steep task after a heavy opener but chase a historic first World Cup point.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.63 for Curacao and 2.08 for Ivory Coast. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 70 for Ivory Coast, 20 for a draw and 10 for Curacao, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no head to head and the matchday three lineups are not yet set, so the Curacao win band is wide and low at 5 to 16.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Hit · we picked 0-2

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 3Thu 25 Jun

South Africa vs South Korea

South Africa vs South Korea prediction: Bafana Bafana against Son Heung-min and South Korea. The model gives South Korea 57 percent and calls a 1-1.

South Africa 18%Draw 25%South Korea 57%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
South Africa qualified from Africa after a 16 year drought but lost their opener 2-0 to Mexico. South Korea beat Czechia 2-1 in their opener with a late winner.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
South Korea are ranked around 25th in the world, South Africa around 60th.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
South Korea are valued near 142 million euros, South Africa near 46 million euros, roughly three times higher for South Korea.
Player level by league and club
South Korea carry an elite European spine, Lee Kang-in at Paris Saint-Germain and Kim Min-jae, with captain Son Heung-min now in MLS. South Africa are built on their domestic league with a smaller European contingent.
Availability and injuries
Son is fit and captaining the side, with Hwang In-beom managing an ankle issue. South Africa report no confirmed key absences for matchday three. The lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Estadio Monterrey is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
The sides have only a thin and dated record, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Likely decisive for both. After an opening loss South Africa probably need a result to stay alive, South Korea aim to seal progression and group position.

The referee, Facundo Tello of Argentina, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night he booked one player a side and had no decisive call to make.

The official

Facundo Tello · Argentina

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Türkiye qualified through the playoffs behind Spain but opened with a surprise 2-0 loss to Australia. Paraguay revived under Gustavo Alfaro to qualify after 16 years away, then lost their opener 4-1 to the USA. Both sit on zero points.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Türkiye are ranked 22nd in the world, Paraguay 41st.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Türkiye are valued near 474 million euros, a top dozen squad. Paraguay sit near 40th by value, well below, with an exact total not confirmed.
Player level by league and club
Türkiye carry elite talent, Arda Guler at Real Madrid, Kenan Yildiz at Juventus and captain Hakan Calhanoglu at Inter. Paraguay are more domestic and South American based, with Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso the names abroad.
Availability and injuries
Paraguay's main doubt is Julio Enciso, hurt in a June friendly and racing to be fit. Türkiye report no major confirmed absences. Matchday two lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is neutral, with both sides travelling into Northern California and equal rest.
Head to head
The only meetings were two friendlies in 2004, both won by Türkiye. Negligible signal, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both lost their openers, so this is close to a must win to keep round of 32 hopes alive in a group with the USA and Australia.

The referee, Ivan Barton of El Salvador, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. His decisive call, a first half red card, went against Paraguay, who won regardless.

The official

Ivan Barton · El Salvador

A Salvadoran FIFA referee and a regular in Concacaf and at world tournaments, known for a firm, card ready style.

Measured by his actions, Barton was strict and his biggest call hurt the winners. He booked Paraguay's Galarza early, carded the Türkiye bench, and sent off Paraguay's Almiron in first half stoppage time after a VAR review. Paraguay won with ten men, so the officiating made the upset harder, not easier. The pre match model never weights the referee on the winner, and nothing here would have changed that.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.66 for Türkiye and 0.99 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for Türkiye, 26 for a draw and 22 for Paraguay, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Türkiye edge the win. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no usable head to head and the matchday two lineups are not yet set, so the Türkiye win band is wide at 42 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 1Sat 20 Jun

Brazil vs Haiti

Brazil vs Haiti prediction: five times world champions against a side at only their second ever World Cup. The model gives Haiti 6 percent and calls a 2-0.

Brazil 77%Draw 17%Haiti 6%

Called 2-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil are favourites under Carlo Ancelotti but have looked anxious in patches, and the model respects rather than inflates their form. Haiti are competitive and organised defensively but light on goals, the lower end of the group's attacking threat.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Haiti around 83rd. This is one of the widest strength gaps the model sees in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals near 928 million euros. Haiti are valued near 56 million euros, a difference of many multiples.
Player level by league and club
Brazil are stacked with elite club talent, including Vinicius Junior at Real Madrid, Raphinha at Barcelona and Gabriel Magalhaes at Arsenal. Haiti's best play in mid tier Europe and MLS, led by Wilson Isidor and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, a clear pedigree gap.
Availability and injuries
Brazil carry notable absences, with Rodrygo, Estevao, Eder Militao and Wesley among the unavailable and a doubt over Neymar's fitness, though the depth absorbs it. Haiti name a full squad, but Brazil's exact attacking lineup was not fully confirmed, so the model treats availability as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Philadelphia Stadium is a neutral venue, though the city's sizeable Haitian American community means the crowd may not be one sided. The model treats rest and travel as broadly symmetric.
Head to head
Their only modern meeting was a 7-1 Brazil win at the 2016 Copa America Centenario. Older meetings are discounted, and the recent result strongly favours Brazil.
Stakes and motivation
Brazil want a commanding start to control Group C and ease pressure on Ancelotti. Haiti, at only their second ever World Cup, are highly motivated but face a clear class gap, so the model adds only a small motivation edge their way.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.26 for Brazil and 0.48 for Haiti. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 77 for Brazil, 17 for a draw and 6 for Haiti, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is good at 0.92, held back by Brazil's unsettled attacking lineup and an unappointed referee, so the Brazil win band sits at 69 to 85.

2.4k184

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2Fri 19 Jun

Scotland vs Morocco

Scotland vs Morocco prediction: group leaders Scotland against the 2022 semifinalists. The model gives Morocco 65 percent and calls a 0-2.

Scotland 13%Draw 22%Morocco 65%

Called 0-2. Final 0-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Morocco are on a long unbeaten run, won their African group with a perfect record, and opened with a 1-1 draw against Brazil. Scotland ended a 28 year absence and opened with a 1-0 win over Haiti through John McGinn.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Morocco are ranked 7th in the world, Scotland 42nd, one of the wider gaps in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Morocco are valued in the range of 447 to 488 million euros, a top dozen squad. Scotland are valued near 170 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Morocco field elite league regulars, Achraf Hakimi at Paris Saint-Germain, Brahim Diaz at Real Madrid and Noussair Mazraoui at Manchester United. Scotland are anchored by Scott McTominay at Napoli and captain Andy Robertson.
Availability and injuries
Morocco are without Nayef Aguerd and Abde Ezzalzouli for the tournament, with Hakimi over a thigh issue. Scotland lost Billy Gilmour before the finals and watched Che Adams' fitness. Matchday two lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Boston Stadium is neutral, and both played their openers in the northeast, so travel and rest are broadly even.
Head to head
Their only meeting was a 3-0 Morocco win at the 1998 World Cup, too old to carry weight, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Scotland top the group on three points and a result moves them close to a first ever knockout place. Morocco, a 2022 semifinalist, need a win after drawing Brazil to control their group.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.74 for Scotland and 1.95 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Morocco, 22 for a draw and 13 for Scotland, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no usable head to head and the matchday two lineups are not yet set, so the Scotland win band is wide and low at 7 to 20.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Right call · we picked 0-2

Morocco beat Scotland 1-0 in Boston, Ismael Saibari striking after just 72 seconds, the fastest goal of the tournament so far. The 2022 semifinalists managed the game from there, and the result left Scotland's hopes of a first ever knockout stage on a knife edge going into the Brazil game. We had Morocco to win and called 0-2, the winner was right but the margin was tighter than the model expected.

The controversy

Nothing significant was disputed. Scotland pressed for an equaliser without a contested decision turning the game, and the officials were not the story.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D, Matchday 1Fri 19 Jun

USA vs Australia

USA vs Australia prediction: a co-host with a home crowd in Seattle against a stubborn Socceroos side. The model gives the USA 53 percent and calls a 1-1.

USA 53%Draw 26%Australia 21%

Called 1-1. Final 2-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA were mixed in warm-ups, with losses to Belgium, Portugal and Germany alongside a win over Senegal, before strong tournament intent. Australia arrive organised and hard to beat, the kind of disciplined side that frustrates favourites.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The USA are ranked 17th in the world, Australia 27th. A modest gap that the model treats with respect, widened by home advantage.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA are valued near 386 million euros, Australia near 77 million euros, roughly a five times difference in the hosts' favour.
Player level by league and club
The USA core plays in top European leagues, with Christian Pulisic at Milan, Weston McKennie at Juventus and Antonee Robinson at Fulham. Australia are drawn more from lower European tiers, the A-League and Asia, with captain Mathew Ryan and Jackson Irvine the experienced names.
Availability and injuries
The USA carried several knocks into the tournament, with Pulisic managing a glute issue and questions over others. The exact matchday fitness picture was not fully confirmed, so the model treats this signal as incomplete. Australia lost Riley McGree before the finals but otherwise look settled.
Venue, travel and rest
Seattle Stadium gives co-host USA a clear home crowd and familiarity edge, a real lift the model adds on top of the ranking gap. Travel and rest are broadly comparable.
Head to head
The sides have met four times at senior level, with the USA leading two wins to one and a draw, most recently a 2-1 win in October 2025. A small but real recent edge the model trusts. They have never met at a World Cup.
Stakes and motivation
In a balanced Group D, this fixture shapes the path to the knockouts, so the stakes are high for both. The USA also carry host nation pressure to advance deep, a small extra edge the model logs.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for the USA layered on top, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.67 for the USA and 0.98 for Australia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for the USA, 26 for a draw and 21 for Australia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as the hosts edge the win probability. Data quality is good at 0.92, held back by an unconfirmed USA fitness picture and an unappointed referee, so the USA win band sits at 43 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-0Missed · we picked 1-1

The USA beat Australia 2-0 in Seattle to reach the round of 32 with a game to spare. An Australia own goal on eleven minutes and an Alex Freeman header just before the break did the damage, and the co-hosts saw it out without the injured Christian Pulisic. It was the first time the USA had won back to back World Cup games since 1930. Our 1-1 call missed, the home side were the stronger throughout.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The opener was an own goal and the game was cleanly officiated, with no VAR controversy of note.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 1Fri 19 Jun

Mexico vs South Korea

Mexico vs South Korea prediction: a co-host at home in Guadalajara against Son Heung-min in what is likely his last World Cup. The model gives Mexico 44 percent and calls a 1-1.

Mexico 44%Draw 28%South Korea 28%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Mexico have been solid, with three wins in their last five warm-ups, including a 4-0 win over Iceland. South Korea came through Asian qualifying unbeaten, with five wins and a draw, and arrive in good form themselves.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Mexico are ranked 15th in the world, South Korea 26th. A modest gap that the model treats with respect, widened only by home advantage.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Mexico are valued near 195 million euros, South Korea near 142 million euros. A real but not decisive difference in Mexico's favour.
Player level by league and club
Both field top five league talent. Mexico are led by captain Edson Alvarez at Fenerbahce and Santiago Gimenez at Milan. South Korea counter with captain Son Heung-min, Kim Min-jae at Bayern Munich and Lee Kang-in at Paris Saint-Germain, a strong European core.
Availability and injuries
South Korea are without defender Cho Yu-min through a foot injury and carry a doubt over Hwang In-beom's ankle. Mexico's injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model treats this signal as incomplete rather than guessing.
Venue, travel and rest
Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan gives co-host Mexico a strong home crowd and an acclimatisation edge at moderate altitude, a real lift the model adds. South Korea face the travel and adjustment.
Head to head
Mexico lead the series, roughly four wins to one with a draw, and are unbeaten in World Cup meetings, most recently a 2-1 win at the 2018 finals. A real and recent edge the model trusts.
Stakes and motivation
Group A is winnable for both and a result here is pivotal for topping it. Mexico carry host pressure to reach the knockouts, while South Korea, with Son in a likely final World Cup, are highly motivated to compete deep.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for Mexico layered on top, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.49 for Mexico and 1.14 for South Korea. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 44 for Mexico, 28 for a draw and 28 for South Korea, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is good at 0.92, held back by an unconfirmed Mexico injury list and an unappointed referee, so the Mexico win band sits at 35 to 54.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Mexico beat South Korea 1-0 in Guadalajara to become the first side into the round of 32. The only goal came just after the break, Luis Romo punishing a heavy error by goalkeeper Kim to settle a tight night in front of a home crowd. Mexico controlled the tempo without ever pulling clear and topped Group A. Our 1-1 call missed the exact score, and the draw lean was wrong, the home edge proved decisive.

The controversy

Nothing of substance was disputed. The decisive goal stemmed from a goalkeeping error rather than a refereeing call, and the night passed without a major VAR incident.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 1Thu 18 Jun

Canada vs Qatar

Canada vs Qatar prediction: a co-host in front of a home crowd in Vancouver against a side chasing a first World Cup win. The model gives Canada 61 percent and calls a 1-0.

Canada 61%Draw 24%Qatar 15%

Called 1-0. Final 6-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Canada have been steady under Jesse Marsch, with wins over Venezuela and Guatemala and draws with Colombia and Ecuador in their recent run. Qatar qualified through the Asian fourth round with a 2-1 win over the United Arab Emirates and arrive in respectable shape.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Canada are ranked around 31st in the world, Qatar near 56th. A clear gap the model trusts, widened by home advantage.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Canada are valued near 199 million euros, Qatar near 20 million euros, roughly a tenfold difference in Canada's favour.
Player level by league and club
Canada's spine plays at elite European level, with Alphonso Davies at Bayern Munich, Jonathan David at Juventus and Alistair Johnston at Celtic. Qatar's key men, Akram Afif and Almoez Ali, play in the Qatar Stars League.
Availability and injuries
Canada's Alphonso Davies was working back from a hamstring injury and was targeted to return for this match, while Marcelo Flores is out with a knee injury. Qatar's wider injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model treats this signal as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Vancouver Stadium gives co-host Canada a clear home crowd and familiarity advantage, a real lift the model adds on top of the ranking gap. Rest between matches is broadly even.
Head to head
The sides have met only once, a 2022 friendly in Vienna that Canada won 2-0. The sample is a single non competitive game, so the model logs it but leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chase a first ever World Cup win. As hosts Canada carry heavy pressure to advance from a balanced group, while Qatar arrive looking for a statement result, so motivation runs high with an edge to the home side.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for Canada layered on top, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.85 for Canada and 0.82 for Qatar. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 61 for Canada, 24 for a draw and 15 for Qatar, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed Qatar injury list and the absence of a meaningful head to head, so the Canada win band sits at 51 to 71.

2.4k184

What happened

6-0Right call · we picked 1-0

Canada thrashed Qatar 6-0 in Vancouver for their first ever World Cup win, the biggest by a CONCACAF side in tournament history. Jonathan David scored a hat-trick, with Cyle Larin, Nathan Saliba and a Qatar own goal completing the rout in front of a home crowd. We had Canada to win and called 1-0, the winner was right but the model never imagined the margin.

The controversy

The night turned ugly with two red cards and a serious injury to Kone in the second half. The dismissals reflected a heated contest rather than a single disputed call, and the result was long settled by then.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 1Thu 18 Jun

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: the group's traditional power meets the side that knocked Italy out to get here. The model gives Switzerland 49 percent and calls a 1-1.

Switzerland 49%Draw 27%Bosnia and Herzegovina 24%

Called 1-1. Final 4-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Switzerland have been steady but leaky, with two wins, two draws and a 4-3 loss to Germany in their last five, scoring and conceding freely. Bosnia are draw heavy and low scoring, having reached the finals through the playoffs after holding Italy and Wales.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Switzerland are ranked 19th in the world, Bosnia around 64th. A wide gap of some 45 places that the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Switzerland are valued near 333 million euros, Bosnia near 146 million euros, roughly a two and a half times difference in Switzerland's favour.
Player level by league and club
Switzerland field top five league regulars including captain Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, and goalkeepers Yann Sommer and Gregor Kobel. Bosnia lean on the 40 year old record scorer Edin Dzeko, with Sead Kolasinac and Amar Dedic the supporting names across more modest clubs.
Availability and injuries
Neither side carries a confirmed major injury or suspension at this stage. Switzerland's Zeki Amdouni is back from a long knee injury but short of minutes, and Dzeko is reported fit to lead the line for Bosnia.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood is a neutral, covered and climate controlled venue, so heat is not a factor and the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
The only meeting on file is a 2016 friendly that Bosnia won 2-0. The sample is a single old, non competitive game, so the model logs it but leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
In a balanced group that also holds Canada and Qatar, a result here is close to decisive. Switzerland see themselves as the group's power, while Bosnia carry the momentum and siege mentality of eliminating Italy to reach only their second World Cup.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.6 for Switzerland and 1.04 for Bosnia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Switzerland, 27 for a draw and 24 for Bosnia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is a single old friendly, so the Switzerland win band sits at 40 to 58.

2.4k184

What happened

4-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 in Los Angeles to take control of Group B, the goals arriving in a late flurry. Substitute Johan Manzambi struck a stunning volley on 74 minutes and added a second, Ruben Vargas made it three, and Granit Xhaka rounded it off from the spot deep in stoppage time after Bosnia had pulled one back through Mahmic. Our 1-1 call missed, the scoreline ran away once Bosnia went down to ten men.

The controversy

Bosnia were reduced to ten men when Tarik Muharemovic was sent off, the turning point that opened the game up. The dismissal was the decisive disciplinary moment rather than a contested VAR call.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 2Thu 18 Jun

Czechia vs South Africa

Czechia vs South Africa prediction: two sides beaten in their openers meet with knockout hopes already on the line. The model gives Czechia 53 percent and calls a 1-1.

Czechia 53%Draw 26%South Africa 21%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Czechia lost their opener 2-1 to South Korea but arrived in good form, unbeaten in their previous warm-ups. South Africa lost 0-2 to Mexico in an ugly game, finishing with nine men after two red cards.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Czechia are ranked 40th in the world, South Africa 60th.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Czechia are valued near 188 million euros, South Africa near 49 million euros, roughly four times higher for Czechia.
Player level by league and club
Czechia carry top five league quality, Patrik Schick at Bayer Leverkusen and Tomas Soucek at West Ham, with a strong Slavia Prague core. South Africa are drawn mostly from their domestic league, with Lyle Foster at Burnley the standout abroad.
Availability and injuries
South Africa lose midfielders Themba Zwane and Sphephelo Sithole to suspension after red cards against Mexico. Czechia report no confirmed absences, and Foster is fit.
Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta Stadium is neutral, and both sides have had a week's rest since their openers, so the setting is symmetric.
Head to head
The sides have no World Cup meetings and no recent competitive history, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both arrive on zero points, so this is close to a must win in a group with Mexico and South Korea. Motivation is high on both sides, slightly more desperate for a shorthanded South Africa.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.69 for Czechia and 0.97 for South Africa. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for Czechia, 26 for a draw and 21 for South Africa, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Czechia edge the win. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because there is no usable head to head, so the Czechia win band sits at 44 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Czechia and South Africa drew 1-1 in Atlanta, exactly as the model called. Michal Sadilek put Czechia ahead early after an Adam Hlozek cross, but South Africa hung on and snatched a point when Teboho Mokoena converted a late penalty. The 1-1 forecast landed on the most likely cell of the grid, and both sides finished level on a point each in Group A.

The controversy

The equaliser came from a penalty, awarded on 83 minutes after Pavel Sulc was penalised for handball. The decision was the night's main talking point but was widely accepted on replay, and Mokoena sent Matej Kovar the wrong way to make it count.

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group K, Matchday 1Thu 18 Jun

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction: a first ever World Cup debut runs into James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, at altitude in Mexico City. The model gives Uzbekistan 17 percent and calls a 0-1.

Uzbekistan 17%Draw 24%Colombia 59%

Called 0-1. Final 1-3, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Uzbekistan reached their first ever World Cup with a strong, unbeaten Asian qualifying run that included a 3-0 win over Qatar. Colombia arrive in good form, winning both June friendlies against Costa Rica and Jordan, after earlier losses to France and Croatia.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Colombia are ranked 13th in the world, Uzbekistan around 50th. A clear gap the model trusts, though Uzbekistan are an organised, improving side.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Colombia are valued around 302 million euros, mid table among the 48 squads. Uzbekistan are valued near 85 million euros, a clear step below but not among the very lowest.
Player level by league and club
Colombia carry strong European based talent led by Luis Diaz at Bayern Munich and captain James Rodriguez, with Davinson Sanchez and David Ospina behind them. Uzbekistan's standout is Abdukodir Khusanov at Manchester City, with captain Eldor Shomurodov and most of the squad based domestically or in the region.
Availability and injuries
Colombia name James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, both reported fit, with no major absences. Uzbekistan's injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model treats this signal as incomplete rather than guessing.
Venue, travel and rest
Mexico City Stadium sits at roughly 2,240 metres, an altitude that can sap stamina for sides not acclimatised. Neither team is at home, though Colombia's South American players carry more altitude experience, a small edge the model notes.
Head to head
There is no senior meeting on record between the sides, so the head to head offers no signal and the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Uzbekistan are debutants who see a winnable opener and a chance to make history. Colombia, the higher ranked side, treat three points as important toward escaping a group that also contains Portugal, so motivation runs high both ways.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Anthony Taylor · England

A very experienced FIFA referee with over 430 Premier League matches and a second World Cup here, having also worked Qatar 2022 and two European Championships.

In a tie with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide it. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.86 for Uzbekistan and 1.81 for Colombia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 59 for Colombia, 24 for a draw and 17 for Uzbekistan, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed Uzbekistan injury list and the absence of any head to head, so the Uzbekistan win band sits low at 10 to 24.

2.4k184

What happened

1-3Right call · we picked 0-1

Colombia beat World Cup debutants Uzbekistan 3-1 to open Group K at the top. Daniel Munoz headed in before the break, Abbosbek Fayzullaev levelled for a spirited Uzbek side, then Luis Diaz restored the lead and Jaminton Campaz settled it deep in stoppage time. We had Colombia to win and called 0-1, the winner was right but Uzbekistan made it far more open than the scoreline suggests.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed in a cleanly contested game. Uzbekistan's debut passed without a major refereeing flashpoint.

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group L, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Ghana vs Panama

Ghana vs Panama prediction: Ghana arrive without Thomas Partey and Mohammed Kudus against a steady Panama. The model splits them, Ghana 38 percent and a 1-1.

Ghana 38%Draw 28%Panama 34%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ghana topped a tough African qualifying group but arrive in poor warm-up form, without a win in their build-up games. Panama have been steadier, with wins over El Salvador and Guatemala.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Panama are ranked 34th in the world, Ghana 73rd, a higher placing for Panama despite Ghana's bigger reputation.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Ghana are valued near 235 million euros, Panama near 35 million euros, roughly seven times higher for Ghana.
Player level by league and club
Ghana are built on top five league players, Inaki Williams, Antoine Semenyo and captain Jordan Ayew. Panama are mostly MLS, Liga MX and domestic based, anchored by Anibal Godoy and Adalberto Carrasquilla.
Availability and injuries
Ghana are hit hard. Thomas Partey was denied entry to Canada and misses this opener, and Mohammed Kudus is out injured. Panama named a settled squad with no comparable absences.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto Stadium is neutral and the opener for both. Ghana's base in Boston added the border complication that cost them Partey for this game.
Head to head
The sides have no competitive history of note, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
In a group with England and Croatia both treat this as close to a must win. Motivation is high and roughly even, with Ghana carrying the pressure of favourite by pedigree.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Glenn Nyberg · Sweden

An experienced UEFA elite group referee.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.34 for Ghana and 1.27 for Panama. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for Ghana, 28 for a draw and 34 for Panama, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline in a near even game. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because there is no usable head to head, so the Ghana win band sits at 29 to 46.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group L, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

England vs Croatia

England vs Croatia prediction: a rematch of the 2018 semi final, with a 40 year old Luka Modric facing England one more time. The model gives England 50 percent and calls a 1-1.

England 50%Draw 27%Croatia 23%

Called 1-1. Final 4-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
England came through their warm-up window unbeaten, beating New Zealand and Costa Rica, though against light opposition and after a mixed competitive spring. Croatia were beaten 2-0 by Belgium in their main tune-up, leaving questions over an aging core in transition.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
England are ranked fourth in the world, Croatia eleventh. A meaningful gap, but one of the smaller ones the model sees between two established sides.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
England field the second most valuable squad at the finals, near 1.36 billion euros. Croatia are valued around 387 million euros, roughly a three and a half times difference in England's favour.
Player level by league and club
England build around Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and John Stones at Bayern, Real Madrid, Arsenal and Manchester City. Croatia lean on a veteran spine of Luka Modric, now at Milan in his sixth World Cup, with Kovacic and Gvardiol the higher end of their quality.
Availability and injuries
England carry several knocks, with Saka managing an Achilles issue and questions over Livramento, James and Spence, though the depth absorbs it. Croatia welcome back Gvardiol after a shin fracture earlier in the year, with no long term key absences confirmed.
Venue, travel and rest
Dallas Stadium in Arlington is a neutral, domed and air conditioned venue, which removes heat as a factor, so the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
The sides have a rich, balanced recent history. Croatia won the 2018 World Cup semi final after extra time, England won 1-0 at Euro 2020, and the 2018 Nations League double header split a win and a draw. Recent meetings tilt slightly to England, while Croatia own the biggest result.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a winning start in a group with Ghana and Panama where finishing top shapes the knockout path. England carry the weight of expectation, Croatia the emotion of a generational transition around Modric in his final tournament.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Clement Turpin · France

A FIFA referee since 2010 with finals at the highest level, including a Champions League final and multiple England and Croatia matches. He is a strict, high profile official.

In a tight match the official could matter at the margins, but his role is cards, penalties and variance. The model never lets him touch the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.62 for England and 1.02 for Croatia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for England, 27 for a draw and 23 for Croatia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as England edge the win probability. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head, while rich, is dominated by older meetings, so the England win band sits at 41 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

4-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group K, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Portugal vs DR Congo

Portugal vs DR Congo prediction: the reigning Nations League winners open against a side that qualified on the very last day. The model gives DR Congo 11 percent and calls a 2-0.

Portugal 67%Draw 22%DR Congo 11%

Called 2-0. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Portugal are the reigning 2025 Nations League champions and won both June warm-ups, beating Chile and Nigeria. DR Congo earned their place the hard way, winning the African playoff over Nigeria on penalties and then the intercontinental playoff over Jamaica, the last team to qualify.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Portugal are ranked fifth in the world, DR Congo around 47th. A wide gap the model trusts, though DR Congo are a credible side rather than a minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Portugal field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, near 1.01 billion euros. DR Congo are valued around 144 million euros, a clear multiple below Portugal.
Player level by league and club
Portugal are drawn almost entirely from Europe's top five leagues, with Ruben Dias, Joao Neves, Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao among them. DR Congo's key men play in good European leagues at mid table level, including Yoann Wissa, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and captain Chancel Mbemba.
Availability and injuries
Portugal name Cristiano Ronaldo despite a thigh issue that cost him the friendlies, and he is expected to start, with no World Cup threatening injuries reported. DR Congo's wider injury picture beyond Wissa's hard season was not fully confirmed, so the model treats this signal as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Houston Stadium is a neutral, climate controlled venue near sea level, so there is no altitude or heat factor and the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
There is no senior meeting on record between the sides, so the head to head offers no signal and the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Portugal want a winning start in what is likely Ronaldo's final World Cup. DR Congo return to the finals for the first time in decades and arrive as motivated underdogs, so the model adds only a small motivation edge their way.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Abdulrahman Al Jassim · Qatar

An experienced FIFA official who worked the 2022 World Cup, including high profile knockout duty, and a regular at Asian tournaments. He leads a Qatari crew here.

In a tie this lopsided the official is unlikely to shape the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.99 for Portugal and 0.71 for DR Congo. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 67 for Portugal, 22 for a draw and 11 for DR Congo, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed DR Congo injury list and the absence of any head to head, so the Portugal win band sits at 57 to 76.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Austria vs Jordan

Austria vs Jordan prediction: David Alaba's Austria against World Cup debutants Jordan. The model gives Austria 56 percent and calls a 1-1.

Austria 56%Draw 25%Jordan 19%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Austria are in strong form, winning their qualifying group with a goal difference of plus 18, including a 2-1 win at Bosnia. Jordan finished their Asian group unbeaten in the third round and reached the 2023 Asian Cup final, a rising side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Austria are ranked 24th in the world, Jordan 63rd.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Austria are valued near 245 million euros, Jordan near 20 million euros, the lowest of all 48 squads.
Player level by league and club
Austria are heavily Europe based and high end, David Alaba, Konrad Laimer, Marcel Sabitzer and Marko Arnautovic. Jordan are led by Musa Al Taamari at Rennes, with most of the squad in domestic and Asian leagues.
Availability and injuries
Jordan suffer a major blow, top qualifying scorer Yazan Al Naimat is out with an ACL injury. Austria report no major confirmed absences.
Venue, travel and rest
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is neutral and the opener for both, so neither holds a rest or home edge.
Head to head
The sides have no meaningful competitive history and have effectively never met, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
In a group with Argentina and Algeria this is the most winnable game for both. Jordan make a historic debut and will be charged up, Austria treat it as a must win to set up qualification.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Dahane Beida · Mauritania

A CAF official who refereed the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations final, at his first World Cup.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.75 for Austria and 0.92 for Jordan. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 56 for Austria, 25 for a draw and 19 for Jordan, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Austria edge the win. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because there is no usable head to head, so the Austria win band sits at 47 to 65.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 1Wed 17 Jun

Argentina vs Algeria

Argentina vs Algeria prediction: the reigning world champions and world number one open their title defence against Riyad Mahrez and a dangerous Algeria side. The model gives Algeria 10% and calls a 2-0.

Argentina 70%Draw 20%Algeria 10%

Called 2-0. Final 3-0, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina surged back to the top of the ranking after winning both June warm-ups, against Iceland and Honduras, and arrive on a strong run. Algeria come in with a decent recent record of their own, but built against lighter opposition than Argentina have faced.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Argentina are ranked first in the world, Algeria twenty-eighth. A wide gap the model trusts, though smaller than the gulf Argentina would face against a tournament minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina's squad is valued at roughly 807 million euros, the seventh most valuable at the finals. Algeria sit outside the tournament's top twenty by value; the exact figure was not confirmed in the sources used, but it is a clear multiple below Argentina.
Player level by league and club
Argentina's spine is spread across elite European clubs, with Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero and Nicolas Otamendi among the names, backed by a strong domestic core. Algeria's threat runs mainly through Riyad Mahrez and a group of Europe-based attackers, while the defence is the softer unit.
Availability and injuries
Argentina carry several fitness doubts, with Lo Celso, Foyth and Nicolas Gonzalez listed among the unavailable and a question over Tagliafico, but the squad has the depth to absorb them. Algeria are closer to full strength. Final lineups firm up about an hour before kickoff.
Venue, travel and rest
Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is a neutral venue with neither side at home, so the model treats the setting as roughly symmetric.
Head to head
The sides have met only once, a 2007 friendly that Argentina won 4-3. It is old and non-competitive, so the model down-weights it heavily.
Stakes and motivation
Argentina open the defence of their title and will want a statement start; Algeria open with a point to prove against the favourites. The model adds only a tiny motivation edge either way.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a single strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.95 for Argentina and 0.75 for Algeria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring games, which produces the probability of every possible result. Summed up that is 70 for Argentina, 20 for a draw and 10 for Algeria, and the single most likely cell on the grid is 2-0. Data quality is good but not full at 0.88, held back mainly by the open referee appointment and a few late Argentine fitness calls, so the Argentina-win band stays a touch wider at 62 to 77.

2.4k184

How this changed

4 Jun66% Argentina

Opening estimate before final squads were named, held wider while form and availability were still settling.

14 Jun70% Argentina

Tightened toward Argentina once the warm-up wins and the kind group draw firmed up. No confirmed referee yet, so the band is held slightly wider.

What happened

3-0Right call · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group I, Matchday 1Tue 16 Jun

Iraq vs Norway

Iraq vs Norway prediction: a 40 year wait meets Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The model gives Iraq 10 percent and calls a 0-2.

Iraq 10%Draw 21%Norway 69%

Called 0-2. Final 1-4, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Norway are one of Europe's in form sides, winning four of their last five with a golden generation that scored freely in qualifying. Iraq's path was harder, sealing the 48th and final place through an intercontinental playoff win over Bolivia after grinding through the Asian rounds.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Norway are ranked around 32nd, Iraq just outside the top 50 near 57th. The gap is real and the model trusts it, while noting both sit below the tournament's elite.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Norway are valued near 590 million euros, among the top ten squads at the finals. Iraq are valued around 21 million euros, one of the lowest in the field, a difference of many multiples.
Player level by league and club
Norway are led by Erling Haaland of Manchester City and Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard, backed by Sorloth, Nusa and Berge across strong leagues. Iraq are mostly domestic or lower tier European based, with Zidane Iqbal and a Scandinavian based group their most recognisable names.
Availability and injuries
Norway are essentially full strength, with Haaland and Odegaard both confirmed fit. Iraq's injury picture was not fully confirmed in the sources used, so the model marks this signal as incomplete rather than guessing at it.
Venue, travel and rest
Boston Stadium in Foxborough is a neutral venue and the tournament opener for both, so neither side carries a rest or travel edge.
Head to head
The sides have no prior competitive meeting on record, so there is no head to head signal and the model leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Iraq return to a World Cup after a 40 year wait, a huge national occasion, while Norway end a 28 year absence with a side built to make an impact. Motivation runs high on both sides, with a small emotional edge to the underdog.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Pierre Atcho · Gabon

A 33 year old FIFA official recognised for his Africa Cup of Nations work, Atcho leads an all African crew here. His detailed card and penalty record was not available in the sources used, so it enters the model only as variance.

In a lopsided tie the official is very unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

The engine turns eight signals into a strength gap, then into the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.66 for Iraq and 2.04 for Norway. Those expectations feed a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 69 for Norway, 21 for a draw and 10 for Iraq, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is moderate at 0.87, held back by an unconfirmed Iraq injury list and the absence of any head to head, so the Iraq win band stays low and tight at 5 to 17.

2.4k184

What happened

1-4Right call · we picked 0-2

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group I, Matchday 1Tue 16 Jun

France vs Senegal

France vs Senegal prediction: the 2018 world champions open against the only side to beat them at a World Cup since, and the model still struggles to split them. It gives France 52 percent and calls a 1-1.

France 52%Draw 26%Senegal 22%

Called 1-1. Final 3-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
France arrive in strong shape, reigning 2018 champions and 2022 finalists, and closed their warm-up window with a 3-1 win over Northern Ireland. Senegal are also hot, with Africa Cup of Nations wins over Mali, Egypt and Sudan and a 2-0 friendly win over Peru, though built against lighter opposition than France have faced.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
France are ranked third in the world, Senegal around fourteenth and the top African side in the group. A clear gap, but far from the gulf France would face against a minnow.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
France field the most valuable squad at the tournament at roughly 1.52 billion euros, with several players valued at 100 million euros or more. Senegal are valued near 478 million euros, a strong number that is still a clear step below France.
Player level by league and club
France build around an elite core of Mbappe, Dembele, Saliba and Maignan spread across Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal. Senegal counter with a heavily Premier League and top European base, including Pape Matar Sarr, Iliman Ndiaye, Nicolas Jackson and the experience of Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mane.
Availability and injuries
France expect Mbappe to captain the side despite a minor thigh issue, with Saliba and Kounde cleared, though Ekitike is ruled out. Senegal are close to full strength, with Mane fit and only minor knocks reported. Final lineups firm up about an hour before kickoff.
Venue, travel and rest
New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford is a neutral venue with neither side at home, and both play their tournament opener here, so the model treats rest and travel as symmetric.
Head to head
The defining meeting is Senegal's 1-0 win over reigning champions France at the 2002 World Cup. The sample is tiny and old, so the model logs the memory but down weights it heavily and leaves the factor out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
France open what is set to be Didier Deschamps' farewell tournament and want a statement start. Senegal carry the role of African flag bearer and the legacy of 2002, so motivation is close to even with a small underdog edge to Senegal.

The referee is appointed and researched below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Alireza Faghani · Australia

A vastly experienced official, Faghani is among the first referees appointed to four men's World Cups. His record spans Olympic finals, Asian Cup knockouts and recent international qualifiers, and he is trusted with high profile matches.

In a tie this close the official could matter at the margins, but his job here is cards, penalties and variance. The model never lets him touch the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a single strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.65 for France and 1.0 for Senegal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction for low scoring games, which produces the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for France, 26 for a draw and 22 for Senegal. The single most likely cell on the grid is a 1-1, even though France are favoured overall, which is the honest read of a tight game. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is too old to lean on, so the France win band sits at 43 to 61.

2.4k184

What happened

3-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group G, Matchday 1Tue 16 Jun

Iran vs New Zealand

Iran vs New Zealand prediction: a settled Iran side meets the All Whites in the group's most open game. The model gives Iran 50 percent and calls a 1-1.

Iran 50%Draw 27%New Zealand 23%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Iran qualified early from the Asian third round and are defensively solid, with a 2-0 win over Tanzania and goalless draws against Cape Verde and Uzbekistan. New Zealand came through Oceania but lost a warm-up 4-0 to Haiti.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Iran are ranked around 20th in the world, New Zealand around 86th. A wide gap, though both sit outside the elite.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The squads are nearly level and among the lowest at the finals, Iran near 32 million euros and New Zealand near 35 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Iran are led by captain Mehdi Taremi, with a mix of domestic and Europe based players. New Zealand build around Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest, with MLS and lower tier European players around him.
Availability and injuries
Iran left out striker Sardar Azmoun for reasons reported as off field rather than injury, a notable absence, with Taremi fit and central. New Zealand named a settled squad with thin depth.
Venue, travel and rest
Los Angeles Stadium is neutral and the opener for both, so neither side holds a rest or home edge.
Head to head
The sides last met in 2003, a 3-0 Iran win. Too old to carry signal, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
This is the most winnable game in the group for both, close to a must win for round of 32 hopes. Iran are favourites and treat it as a platform, New Zealand are motivated at their first finals since 2010.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Cesar Arturo Ramos · Mexico

An experienced CONCACAF and FIFA referee who has worked previous World Cups.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.61 for Iran and 1.03 for New Zealand. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for Iran, 27 for a draw and 23 for New Zealand, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is too old to use, so the Iran win band sits at 41 to 59.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group H, Matchday 1Mon 15 Jun

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay prediction: Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay and their European core against a home based Saudi side. The model gives Uruguay 59 percent and calls a 0-1.

Saudi Arabia 17%Draw 24%Uruguay 59%

Called 0-1. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Uruguay arrive in mixed but solid shape, a 0-0 with Mexico and wins over Uzbekistan and the Dominican Republic, with a heavy loss to the USA in the mix. Saudi Arabia have been patchy, a 3-1 win over Comoros but a loss to Jordan and a draw with the UAE.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Uruguay are ranked 16th in the world, Saudi Arabia 61st. A wide gap the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Uruguay are valued near 359 million euros, Saudi Arabia near 41 million euros, a difference of many multiples.
Player level by league and club
Uruguay field elite Europe based talent, Federico Valverde, Ronald Araujo, Manuel Ugarte and Darwin Nunez. Saudi Arabia are almost entirely home based, led by captain Salem Al Dawsari of Al Hilal.
Availability and injuries
Uruguay carry defensive doubts, with Araujo and Gimenez reported likely to miss the opener and Arrascaeta a doubt. Saudi Arabia named a largely full strength domestic squad with no confirmed absences.
Venue, travel and rest
Miami Stadium is neutral and the opener for both. Uruguay reportedly faced a minor travel delay into Miami, a small adverse note.
Head to head
Three meetings, level overall, with the only competitive one a 1-0 Uruguay win at the 2018 World Cup. Thin, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong start in a group that also holds Spain. Uruguay are dark horses under Bielsa, Saudi Arabia chase a statement result in their seventh World Cup.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Maurizio Mariani · Italy

A Serie A referee, FIFA listed since 2019 and in the UEFA elite category since 2024, at his first World Cup.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.85 for Saudi Arabia and 1.82 for Uruguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 59 for Uruguay, 24 for a draw and 17 for Saudi Arabia, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is thin, so the Saudi Arabia win band sits low at 11 to 23.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-1

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group G, Matchday 1Mon 15 Jun

Belgium vs Egypt

Belgium vs Egypt prediction: Kevin De Bruyne opens what may be his last World Cup against Mohamed Salah and Egypt. The model gives Belgium 58 percent and calls a 1-1.

Belgium 58%Draw 25%Egypt 17%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Belgium won their European qualifying group and arrive in strong shape after heavy late wins in qualifying. Egypt have been streaky, with a 4-0 friendly win over Saudi Arabia and a 0-0 with Spain, but a recent 2-1 loss to Brazil.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Belgium are ranked around 8th in the world, Egypt around 34th. A clear gap the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Belgium are valued near 548 million euros, a top ten squad at the finals. Egypt sit near 117 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Belgium are built on big league talent, Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku, Romelu Lukaku and Thibaut Courtois. Egypt lean on Mohamed Salah at Liverpool and Omar Marmoush at Manchester City, with much of the rest in the Egyptian league.
Availability and injuries
Belgium name De Bruyne, Lukaku and Doku, with Lukaku possibly managed off the bench. Salah carried a late season hamstring issue and is reported available but not certainly at full sharpness.
Venue, travel and rest
Vancouver Stadium is a neutral venue and the opener for both, so neither side holds a rest or home edge.
Head to head
The sides have met four times, all friendlies, with Egypt winning the most recent 2-1 in 2022. Friendly only, so the model logs it but leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a winning start in a group with a real path to the knockouts. Belgium are favourites in what is likely De Bruyne's final World Cup, Egypt see a Salah led upset as their tournament defining chance.

The referee is appointed and noted below. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The official

Ramon Abatti · Brazil

A CONMEBOL official listed on the 2026 World Cup refereeing roster. His detailed card and penalty record was not confirmed in the sources used, so he enters the model only as variance.

In a match with a clear favourite the official is unlikely to decide the result. The model lets him touch only cards, penalties and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.79 for Belgium and 0.88 for Egypt. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 58 for Belgium, 25 for a draw and 17 for Egypt, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline even as Belgium edge the win. Data quality is high at 0.95, trimmed only because the head to head is friendly only, so the Belgium win band sits at 49 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Forecast1 / 6

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group HMon 15 Jun

Spain vs Cabo Verde

Spain vs Cabo Verde prediction: a fairytale World Cup debut runs into the reigning European champions. The model gives Cabo Verde 6% and calls a 2-0.

Spain 76%Draw 18%Cabo Verde 6%

Called 2-0. Final 0-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, last ~10 matches, friendlies discounted
Spain arrive as reigning European champions in strong form. Cabo Verde impressed in qualifying and won 3-0 against Serbia in a warm-up, but against weaker opposition than they meet here.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Spain rank second in the world, Cabo Verde sixty-ninth. This is the single largest strength gap the model sees.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt)
Spain field one of the most valuable squads at the finals; Cabo Verde one of the least valuable, a difference of many multiples.
Player ratings weighted by league and club
Spain's likely eleven play for elite clubs in the strongest leagues. Cabo Verde's are spread across mid-tier European sides, which lowers their bottom-up rating.
Injury and suspension reports
Spain carry a fitness doubt over a key attacker but have the depth to absorb it. Cabo Verde are close to full strength.
Venue, travel and rest
Atlanta is a neutral stage with neither side at home, so this barely moves the gap.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong opener. Cabo Verde carry the emotion of a first World Cup, Spain the intent of clear favourites, so motivation is close to even.

Two inputs stay out of the winner maths. The sides have never met, so there is no head to head, and the referee is researched in full below but never enters the model's winner.

The official

Adham Makhadmeh · Jordan

A FIFA international referee since 2013, the 39 year old from Irbid is at his first World Cup. His major tournament work includes the 2019 Asian Cup opener, a group game at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, the first leg of the 2017 AFC Champions League final, and recent 2026 Asian qualifiers such as the United Arab Emirates' 1-1 draw with North Korea.

He is not a card happy official. Across a logged sample of his earlier matches he averaged a little over three yellows and roughly one red every five games, and awarded penalties sparingly. The sample is partial, so read it as a tendency rather than an exact rate.

His standing has been uneven. A difficult 2019, including a criticised Asian Cup opener, set him back, and his recent Arab Cup outings drew criticism, among them an early on field VAR review that overturned one of his calls. The AFC still trusts him with technically demanding matches.

In a match this lopsided the official is very unlikely to decide the result. His moderate card profile points to a clean game rather than a chaotic one, so in the model he touches only the cards, penalty and variance picture, never the winner.

The math

The engine turns the signals into a strength gap between the two teams, then into the goals each side is expected to score: 2.22 for Spain and 0.51 for Cabo Verde. Those expectations are fed through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction for low scoring games, which produces the probability of every possible result. Summed up, that is the 76, 18 and 6 above, and the single most likely cell in the grid is 2-0. The data here is rich, scoring 0.95 out of 1.0, so the model leans on what it found rather than regressing toward the ranking alone. Where data is thin it does the opposite, pulling its estimate back toward the ranking and widening the band, which is why a debutant with little record always carries more uncertainty.

2.4k184

How this changed

31 May72% Spain

Opening forecast before final squads were named, held wider while data was thin.

12 Jun76% Spain

Tightened toward Spain as the squads, form and kickoff details firmed up. No injury news has moved the line yet.

What happened

0-0Missed · we picked 2-0

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Tunisia vs Sweden

Tunisia vs Sweden prediction: a defensive Tunisia against Sweden's elite strike pair of Isak and Gyokeres.

Tunisia 21%Draw 26%Sweden 53%

Called 1-1. Final 1-5, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Sweden arrive with the more dangerous attack, Tunisia with a disciplined defensive shape.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Sweden a little higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Sweden hold a clear squad value edge, carrying two elite strikers.
Player level by league and club
Sweden build around Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, Tunisia around a compact, experienced block.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Monterrey with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong start, Sweden the favourites on firepower.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.98 for Tunisia and 1.67 for Sweden. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 21 for Tunisia, 26 for a draw and 53 for Sweden, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Tunisia win band sits at 14 to 30.

2.4k184

What happened

1-5Missed · we picked 1-1

Sweden ran riot to beat Tunisia 5-1 in Monterrey. Anis Ben Slimane's side were undone by a Bilal Ayari brace either side of the game, with Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Svanberg also scoring, Rekik's strike a brief reply. The rout sent Sweden top at that stage, though Netherlands and Japan ultimately went through. The model leaned Sweden, just nowhere near this margin.

The controversy

Nothing was disputed in a one sided night. Sweden's finishing, not the officials, told the story.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast prediction: a Moises Caicedo led Ecuador against a top five league stocked Ivory Coast.

Ecuador 39%Draw 28%Ivory Coast 33%

Called 1-1. Final 0-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Two well matched sides, Ecuador organised and hard to beat, Ivory Coast carrying real European pedigree.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Ecuador are ranked around twenty third, Ivory Coast close behind.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, with little to separate the two.
Player level by league and club
Ecuador build around Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho, Ivory Coast around Amad Diallo and a top five league core.
Availability and injuries
Both squads were close to full, though lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A near even tie that could shape second place in Group E.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.37 for Ecuador and 1.24 for Ivory Coast. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 39 for Ecuador, 28 for a draw and 33 for Ivory Coast, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Ecuador win band sits at 29 to 49.

2.4k184

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Ivory Coast edged Ecuador 1-0 for their first World Cup win in twelve years. Ecuador dominated the first half and hit the woodwork, but the chances would not fall, and Amad Diallo struck the late winner to settle a tight Group E meeting. The model had it as a coin flip, and the margin proved as fine as expected, just the wrong way for the favourite tag.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. Ecuador's missed chances, not the officials, decided it.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Türkiye vs Australia

Türkiye vs Australia prediction: a talented Türkiye against a stubborn Socceroos side to open Group D.

Türkiye 47%Draw 27%Australia 26%

Called 1-1. Final 0-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Türkiye arrive with the higher ceiling, Australia with organisation and running.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Türkiye are ranked twenty second, Australia a little lower.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Türkiye field the more valuable squad in the group, Australia a more modest base.
Player level by league and club
Türkiye carry Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu, Australia a hard working collective.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Vancouver with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A group opener with both eyeing a strong start in Group D.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.56 for Türkiye and 1.08 for Australia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 47 for Türkiye, 27 for a draw and 26 for Australia, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Türkiye win band sits at 37 to 58.

2.4k184

What happened

0-2Missed · we picked 1-1

Australia upset Türkiye 2-0 in Vancouver to open Group D. Nestory Irankunda drilled in a low shot on 27 minutes and Connor Metcalfe doubled the lead on 75, as a disciplined Socceroos performance shut Türkiye's talent down. We had Türkiye favoured, and the result was a clear miss, with Australia the sharper side on the night.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. Australia's organisation, not the officials, settled it.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Netherlands vs Japan

Netherlands vs Japan prediction: a deep Netherlands against a fluid, Europe based Japan in the pick of Group F.

Netherlands 52%Draw 26%Japan 22%

Called 1-1. Final 2-2, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The Netherlands arrive among the favourites, Japan as a fluid, well coached side.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The Netherlands sit comfortably inside the top ten, Japan a touch lower but rising.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The Netherlands field a clearly more valuable squad, Japan a deep European based group.
Player level by league and club
The Netherlands carry Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo, Japan a fast, technical core in Kamada and Mitoma.
Availability and injuries
Both squads were close to full, though lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A likely group decider, both wanting the early platform in Group F.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.65 for Netherlands and 1.0 for Japan. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 52 for Netherlands, 26 for a draw and 22 for Japan, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Netherlands win band sits at 41 to 62.

2.4k184

What happened

2-2Right call · we picked 1-1

The Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2 in a thriller in Dallas. Van Dijk headed the Dutch in front on 50 minutes and Summerville made it two on 64, but Nakamura pulled one back and Daichi Kamada's last gasp deflected finish from a corner snatched a point for Japan. The Netherlands still topped Group F in the end, with the model's narrow lean undone by a dramatic finish.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. The drama was in Kamada's late equaliser, not the officiating.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 1Sun 14 Jun

Germany vs Curacao

Germany vs Curacao prediction: a billion euro Germany against one of the smallest nations ever to qualify.

Germany 81%Draw 15%Curacao 4%

Called 2-0. Final 7-1, Right call.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany arrive among the favourites and in fine form, Curacao as plucky debutants.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Germany are ranked around ninth, Curacao far down the order as one of the smallest nations ever to qualify.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Curacao one of the least.
Player level by league and club
Germany carry Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz, Curacao a scattered, lower league base.
Availability and injuries
Germany are without Marc Andre ter Stegen, but the depth absorbs it, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Houston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany want a statement start, Curacao the joy of a first ever finals appearance.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.36 for Germany and 0.39 for Curacao. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 81 for Germany, 15 for a draw and 4 for Curacao, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Germany win band sits at 73 to 88.

2.4k184

What happened

7-1Right call · we picked 2-0

Germany overwhelmed Curacao 7-1 in Houston. Curacao stunned the favourites through Comenencia, but Germany hit back at once and led 3-1 by half time through Nmecha, Schlotterbeck and a Havertz penalty, then ran riot after the break with Musiala, Brown, Undav and a second Havertz goal. The rout went beyond the model's predicted margin but never beyond its lean.

The controversy

Nothing was disputed in a one sided night. Curacao's early goal was the only surprise before Germany took over.

Forecast1 / 6

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 1Sat 13 Jun

Qatar vs Switzerland

Qatar vs Switzerland 1-1: Embolo's disputed VAR penalty, Swiss dominance all night, then a 90+4 own goal. The 64% favourite settled for a draw.

Qatar 13%Draw 23%Switzerland 64%

Called 0-2. Final 1-1, Missed.

The signals

Competitive form, late 2024 onwards (friendlies discounted)
Switzerland have been unbeaten in competitive fixtures since late 2024. Qatar are reigning Asian champions (2024) but limped through World Cup qualifying with one point from two playoff matches against the UAE and North Korea. The form gap is wide and clearly favours Switzerland.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Switzerland sit 19th with around 1650 points. Qatar are 56th. A real-strength gap the model trusts.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Switzerland's squad is valued at roughly €330m; Qatar's at roughly €21m. The cheapest squad at the tournament by a clear margin.
Player level by league and club
Most Swiss starters play in the top five European leagues, with Akanji, Xhaka and Ndoye among them. Qatar's squad is built almost entirely from the Qatar Stars League, which lowers the bottom-up rating considerably.
Availability and injuries
Qatar arrive at full strength. Switzerland carry a pre-match doubt around Embolo, who was initially denied entry to the United States; given squad depth the model weights this only lightly.
Venue, travel and rest
Levi's Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area is a neutral venue with neither side at home. Travel impact is symmetric.
Head to head
The only previous meeting was a 2018 friendly that Qatar won 1-0. It is old and non-competitive, so the model down-weights it heavily.
Stakes and motivation
Both sides open their World Cup here. Qatar arrive with a redemption motive after their 2022 home tournament; the model adds a tiny edge for them on motivation only.

The referee is researched in full below but never enters the model's winner. Only its cards, penalty and variance picture.

The official

Said Martinez · Honduras

Hector Said Martinez Sorto, 34, has been a FIFA international since 2017 and CONCACAF's leading referee for years. He is the first Honduras-born referee to take charge of a match at a senior men's World Cup. At Qatar 2022 he served as an assistant in nine matches. His major-final CV includes the 2021 Gold Cup final and the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League final, where he is nicknamed 'El Matematico' for his calm, measured style.

His card profile is moderate: roughly 3.3 yellows, 23 fouls and about 0.10 reds per match across logged samples; one larger sample suggests up to 4.22 yellows. He whistles few fouls relative to peers, lets the game flow and rarely reaches for a second yellow.

Martinez has been the subject of CONCACAF political attention but has avoided the high-profile errors that mark other regional referees. His Nations League final ran cleanly. Where decisions have drawn debate, the criticism has typically focused on VAR communication rather than his on-field calls.

Against a 64 percent Switzerland favourite, Martinez is very unlikely to swing the winner. His permissive style points toward fewer cards and a freer-flowing match. In the model he touches only the cards, penalty likelihood and variance, never the winner.

The math

Eight signals are folded into a strength gap, which becomes the expected goals for each side: 1.92 for Switzerland, 0.76 for Qatar. Those Lambdas are fed through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring games, producing the probability of every possible result. Summed up, that is 13 for Qatar, 23 for a draw and 64 for Switzerland; the single most likely cell on the grid is 2-0 Switzerland. Data quality is full at 1.0, so the model leans on what it has rather than regressing toward the ranking alone. A Qatar win sits in the 9 to 19 percent band, narrow but not zero.

2.4k184

How this changed

27 May58% Switzerland

Opening estimate before final squads were named. Switzerland clear favourites, but the line held wider while data was thin.

12 Jun64% Switzerland

Matchday estimate after final squads, lineups and the Embolo entry doubt. The model tightened toward Switzerland; the Qatar-win band narrowed to 9-19 percent.

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 0-2

Switzerland Qatar finished 1-1 in the San Francisco Bay Area, Qatar's first ever World Cup point. Switzerland led early through an Embolo penalty after a foul by goalkeeper Abunada on Remo Freuler, and dominated for long stretches: Ndoye twice forced sharp saves, Xhaka rattled the crossbar, and Akanji nodded just wide. The equaliser arrived in the fourth minute of stoppage time, an unfortunate Miro Muheim own goal from a deflected cross. The 2-0 Switzerland call missed; the actual scoreline 1-1 sat inside the model's 23 percent draw bucket.

The controversy

Switzerland Qatar penalty offside VAR controversy: the only goal Switzerland scored came from a contested penalty. Replays of the build-up suggested an offside in the move, with Freuler appearing to make two touches and a teammate possibly active in his line of vision. After a long VAR check, FIFA's semi-automated offside technology ruled Freuler was onside by centimetres and the penalty stood. FIFA did not publish the calibration lines on the broadcast feed; ITV's Gary Neville and Lee Dixon both said it looked offside to the naked eye. The criticism landed on VAR transparency rather than on Said Martinez, whose on-field decision-making went unchallenged.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2Sat 13 Jun

Brazil vs Morocco

Brazil vs Morocco prediction: five times champions Brazil against the 2022 semifinalists Morocco, the pick of Group C.

Brazil 49%Draw 27%Morocco 24%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil arrive among the favourites, Morocco as the strongest of the chasers and 2022 semifinalists.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Morocco around twelfth, a meaningful but not huge gap.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Morocco a clear step below but well stocked.
Player level by league and club
Brazil carry Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, Morocco a Europe based core in Hakimi, Amrabat and Ziyech.
Availability and injuries
Brazil managed a few attacking knocks, so availability is treated as slightly reduced.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Older meetings only, discounted, so the head to head barely moves the call.
Stakes and motivation
A likely group decider, both chasing top spot in Group C.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.6 for Brazil and 1.04 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Brazil, 27 for a draw and 24 for Morocco, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.95, so the Brazil win band sits at 41 to 58.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in a high class Group C meeting. Ismael Saibari put Morocco ahead on 21 minutes before Vinicius Junior levelled with a stunner just after the half hour, and a late Alisson double save preserved the point. Brazil topped the group on goal difference, Morocco finished second, both through. Our forecast caught the closeness if not the exact goals.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. The talking point was Alisson's late double save rather than any refereeing call.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 1Sat 13 Jun

Scotland vs Haiti

Scotland vs Haiti prediction: Scotland chasing a first ever knockout stage against a spirited Haiti.

Scotland 57%Draw 25%Haiti 18%

Called 1-1. Final 1-0, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Scotland arrive the steadier side, Haiti spirited but light on goals.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Scotland sit well above Haiti in the FIFA ranking, one of the group's wider gaps.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Scotland's squad value is several multiples above Haiti's modest total.
Player level by league and club
Scotland lean on John McGinn and a Premier League spine, Haiti on Duckens Nazon and a scattered base.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Scotland carry the weight of a long wait for knockout football, Haiti the freedom of underdogs.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.76 for Scotland and 0.91 for Haiti. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 57 for Scotland, 25 for a draw and 18 for Haiti, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Scotland win band sits at 46 to 67.

2.4k184

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 to climb to the top of Group C. John McGinn settled a tense night with a deflected finish on 28 minutes, and Scotland held on as Brazil and Morocco drew earlier in the day. The narrow win was enough and matched the model's lean, even if the single goal kept it tighter than the favourites would have liked.

The controversy

Nothing significant was disputed. The winner took a deflection but the decision itself drew no protest.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D, Matchday 2Fri 12 Jun

USA vs Paraguay

USA vs Paraguay prediction: co-hosts USA in front of a home crowd against Gustavo Alfaro's Paraguay.

USA 53%Draw 26%Paraguay 21%

Called 1-1. Final 4-1, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA arrive with home momentum and a Europe based core, Paraguay organised under Gustavo Alfaro.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The USA are ranked around seventeenth, Paraguay in the forties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA hold a clear squad value edge over a more domestic Paraguay.
Player level by league and club
The USA build around Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, Paraguay around Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed some fitness scares before the finals, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A home crowd gives the co-hosts a clear lift, which the model adds.
Head to head
A thin recent head to head, lightly weighted.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a winning platform early in Group D.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.68 for USA and 0.97 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 53 for USA, 26 for a draw and 21 for Paraguay, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the USA win band sits at 43 to 63.

2.4k184

What happened

4-1Missed · we picked 1-1

The USA thumped Paraguay 4-1 in their World Cup opener. A Bobadilla own goal inside seven minutes set the tone, Folarin Balogun struck twice before half time, and Gio Reyna added a late fourth, with Mauricio's strike a consolation. The clinical first half display matched the model's lean to the USA, even if the margin ran beyond the most likely scoreline.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The early own goal settled the USA and the night passed without a major decision.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group B, Matchday 2Fri 12 Jun

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: co-hosts Canada in Toronto against Edin Dzeko's Bosnia.

Canada 43%Draw 28%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%

Called 1-1. Final 1-1, Hit.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Canada arrive with home momentum, Bosnia organised around an experienced spine.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Canada marginally higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are similar, Canada edging it on their European based attackers.
Player level by league and club
Canada build around Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, Bosnia around Edin Dzeko and a veteran core.
Availability and injuries
Matchday lineups were not fully set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
Toronto gives co-host Canada a clear home crowd, a real lift the model adds.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both chasing a first points of the group, Canada carrying home expectation.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.45 for Canada and 1.17 for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 43 for Canada, 28 for a draw and 29 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Canada win band sits at 33 to 53.

2.4k184

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Canada and Bosnia drew 1-1 in Toronto, and the point made history for the co-hosts. Lukic put Bosnia ahead on 21 minutes, but substitute Cyle Larin levelled in the 78th to earn Canada their first ever World Cup point, after losing all six matches across 1986 and 2022. Our 1-1 forecast landed on the most likely cell of the grid.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. Canada pushed for a winner without a contested decision shaping the night.

Forecast1 / 5

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group AThu 11 Jun

Mexico vs South Africa

Mexico vs South Africa 2-0: home soil, opening-night noise, and a World Cup curtain-raiser that landed exactly where the model said it would.

Mexico 58%Draw 26%South Africa 16%

Called 2-0. Final 2-0, Hit.

The signals

Home advantage as tournament co-host
Mexico opened on home soil, a strong lift the model adds on top of the ranking gap.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking
Mexico ranked comfortably above South Africa going into the tournament.
Opening-match scoring patterns for host nations
Host nations win their opener far more often than ranking alone suggests, which the model factors in.
Recent CONCACAF and CAF form lines
Both arrived with mixed form, but Mexico's run was the steadier of the two.

Referee history was available and entered only as a cards and variance signal.

The math

A home advantage term on top of the ranking gap pushed Mexico's win probability to 58 percent. Expected goals came out near 1.7 to 0.6, and the Poisson model placed 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 as the three most likely scorelines. We published 2-0 as the single best estimate.

2.4k184

How this changed

8 Jun55% Mexico

First estimate two days out, with home advantage but real respect for South Africa.

10 Jun58% Mexico

Nudged toward Mexico once the lineup was confirmed. Final result 2-0, the call held.

What happened

2-0Hit · we picked 2-0

Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 in the World Cup 2026 opener on home soil, exactly as the model called it. Mexico went in front before the half-hour, controlled possession after the break and saw out the second goal inside the final twenty minutes. South Africa's clearest chances came on the counter and did not survive contact with the box. The 2-0 prediction landed on the most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. A late South Africa appeal for a penalty was waved away and not sent to VAR; the on-field call was widely accepted on replay. The referee booked four players across the night and the match was cleanly officiated.

Forecast1 / 4

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 1Thu 11 Jun

Czechia vs South Korea

Czechia vs South Korea prediction: Patrik Schick's Czechia against a Son Heung-min led South Korea on opening day.

Czechia 31%Draw 28%South Korea 41%

Called 1-1. Final 1-2, Missed.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Both arrive solid but unspectacular, Czechia built around Patrik Schick, South Korea around a settled core.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
South Korea sit a little higher in the FIFA ranking, around the mid twenties, with Czechia in the thirties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, South Korea edging it on their European based spine.
Player level by league and club
South Korea carry Lee Kang-in and Kim Min-jae with Son Heung-min, Czechia lean on Schick and Ladislav Krejci.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A tight opener in a balanced Group A, both desperate for a winning start.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.2 for Czechia and 1.42 for South Korea. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for Czechia, 28 for a draw and 41 for South Korea, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Czechia win band sits at 22 to 41.

2.4k184

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

South Korea came from behind to beat Czechia 2-1 on opening day. Ladislav Krejci headed Czechia in front just before the hour, but Hwang In-beom levelled in the 67th minute and Oh Hyeon-gyu struck the winner on 80 to settle a tense Group A opener. Our call had it close, and so it proved, with the late South Korea push the difference.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The game turned on South Korea's quality off the bench rather than a refereeing call.

Forecasts that go on the record.

History

Spain vs Argentina

Spain vs Argentina prediction: the World Cup final in New Jersey, the European champions against the reigning world champions. The market leans to Spain, 41 percent in ninety minutes and 60 percent to lift the trophy, with a 2-1 call.

France vs England

France and England contest the World Cup third place playoff on neutral ground. Our model gives France a slight edge at 38% to win, with the game most likely settling at 1-0.

England vs Argentina

England vs Argentina prediction: a heavyweight World Cup semi-final in Atlanta, the reigning champions against England. The model favours Argentina at 43 percent and calls a 1-2.

France vs Spain

France vs Spain prediction: two of the pre-tournament favourites collide in the World Cup semi-final in Dallas. The model leans a fraction to Spain at 40 percent and calls a 1-2.

Alexander ZverevvsJannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner came through.

Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina face Switzerland in a World Cup quarter-final where the gap in ranking and recent form suggests a clear favourite, yet knockout football always carries risk.

Norway vs England

England are favored to beat Norway in this World Cup quarter-final, but the prediction comes with notable uncertainty. Our model gives England a 49% chance to win, though a draw remains very possible at 27%.

Karolina MuchovavsLinda Noskova

Linda Noskova came through.

Spain vs Belgium

Spain and Belgium meet in a World Cup quarter-final at SoFi Stadium with the Spanish favorites, though this knockout tie remains genuinely competitive.

Jannik SinnervsNovak Djokovic

Jannik Sinner came through.

Alexander ZverevvsArthur Fery

Alexander Zverev came through.

France vs Morocco

France face Morocco in a World Cup quarter-final where the ranking gap suggests a French advantage, but Morocco's recent form and knockout football unpredictability keep this competitive.

Coco GauffvsKarolina Muchova

Karolina Muchova came through.

Arthur FeryvsFlavio Cobolli

Arthur Fery came through.

Alexander ZverevvsTaylor Fritz

Alexander Zverev came through.

Switzerland vs Colombia

Switzerland and Colombia meet in the Round of 16 with the forecast leaning slightly toward the South Americans, though this is a tight contest that could easily go either way.

Felix Auger-AliassimevsNovak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic came through.

Argentina vs Egypt

Argentina face Egypt in a Round of 16 knockout tie at the 2026 World Cup. Our model leans toward Argentina to progress, but a draw in normal time is far from unlikely.

Karolina MuchovavsNaomi Osaka

Karolina Muchova came through.

Coco GauffvsJessica Pegula

Coco Gauff came through.

Jan-Lennard StruffvsJannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner came through.