Toronto FC vs DC United prediction

The take

Toronto FC come in as slight favorites with a 49 percent win probability, but the gap between the teams is narrow enough that a draw at 27 percent and a DC United upset at 24 percent both remain live outcomes. The model expects a 1-1 stalemate, suggesting both sides will create chances without decisive execution. Toronto's form is mixed: a recent loss to Columbus and draws against Orlando sit alongside wins over Montreal and New York, while DC have won just once in their last five, with heavy defeats to Miami and Orlando indicating defensive fragility. Home advantage at BMO Field tips the scales toward Toronto, yet DC's ability to score and the visitors' recent struggles mean this is genuinely competitive. With data quality at 0.37, uncertainty is real, so treat this forecast as a guide rather than a strong conviction.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  Toronto FC are 2-2-1 in their last five; DC United are 1-4-0, including four losses by multiple goals.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Toronto play at home, a standard advantage the model accounts for in the forecast.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  In their last four meetings, Toronto won once, DC won twice, with one draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.60 for Toronto FC and 1.04 for DC United. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Toronto FC, 24 for DC United and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Toronto FC win band is held at 29 to 69.