Türkiye vs USA prediction

The take

The model gave the USA 40 percent and a 1-1, reading the co-hosts and a Los Angeles crowd as a narrow edge. The scoreline says wrong winner, but the team sheet tells the real story, the USA, already through and topping Group D, rested nine players and sat four who were on yellows to avoid a knockout suspension. Auston Trusty struck after three minutes, Türkiye turned it around through Orkun Kokcu, Sebastian Berhalter levelled from distance after the break, and Kaan Ayhan won it in the 98th minute. The referee, Mustapha Ghorbal of Algeria, was not the story. A heavily rotated side and a goal in the last seconds were. The model priced a contest the two teams approached differently than it assumed.

The signals

• Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly

  The USA had a mixed buildup with some heavy losses but a strong opening win. Türkiye qualified through the playoffs and pushed Spain in qualifying, an improving side.

• FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026

  The USA are ranked 17th in the world, Türkiye 22nd.

• Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)

  Türkiye are valued near 474 million euros, the most valuable in the group. The USA are valued near 386 million euros.

• Player level by league and club

  Türkiye carry elite talent, Hakan Calhanoglu at Inter and Arda Guler at Real Madrid. The USA build around Christian Pulisic at Milan, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams.

• Availability and injuries

  The USA managed several fitness scares before the tournament, with Pulisic and the front line monitored. Türkiye's matchday three picture is not confirmed. Lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Los Angeles Stadium gives co-host USA a clear home crowd and familiarity advantage, a real lift the model adds. Türkiye are on equal rest.

• Head to head

  The sides have no meaningful recent meeting, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.

• Stakes and motivation

  A decisive group finale. Both likely need points, with Türkiye perhaps needing a win to survive, while the USA want to top the group at home.

The referee, Mustapha Ghorbal of Algeria, was appointed after this forecast was built. He enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner. On the night the officiating was not the story, a rotated USA side and a last minute goal were.

The official

Mustapha Ghorbal · Algeria

A FIFA referee from Algeria with World Cup and Africa Cup of Nations experience, a high profile international official.

Measured by this match, Ghorbal was incidental. The result turned on selection and a stoppage time goal, not his whistle, with the USA resting nine starters and four booked players. There is no officiating angle to this upset.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, with a home advantage term for the USA layered in, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.21 for Türkiye and 1.4 for the USA. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for the USA, 28 for a draw and 32 for Türkiye, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline in a tight game. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no usable head to head and the matchday three lineups are not yet set, so the Türkiye win band is wide at 23 to 42.