Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction

The take

San Jose arrive in stronger form, winning three of their last five while Colorado have struggled with only one win in their past five outings. The model gives San Jose a 44 percent chance to win, compared to 28 percent for Colorado, reflecting their recent momentum advantage. Colorado do have home field at Dick's Sporting Goods Park and hold the head-to-head edge with two wins in their last three meetings, but those factors aren't enough to flip the forecast in their favor. The expected goal tally sits at 1.14 for Colorado and 1.48 for San Jose, suggesting a fairly tight encounter that the model predicts ending 1-1. However, data quality here is modest at 0.37, meaning key information about team strength, squad depth, and player availability is missing, so treat this prediction with appropriate caution.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  San Jose have won three of their last five matches while Colorado managed only one win in the same span, with Colorado suffering a heavy 3-0 loss to Columbus most recently.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Colorado play at home at Dick's Sporting Goods Park where home advantage is factored into the model.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 3)

  Colorado lead the recent head-to-head record with two wins in the last three meetings against San Jose.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.14 for Colorado Rapids and 1.48 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for Colorado Rapids, 44 for San Jose Earthquakes and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Colorado Rapids win band is held at 13 to 48.