Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution prediction

The take

Philadelphia Union arrive in strong form with four wins in their last five, including a 4-3 thriller against Sporting Kansas City and a 4-2 dismantling of Orlando City. New England Revolution have been inconsistent, mixing wins with heavy defeats, most recently losing 3-0 to both Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders. The Union's home advantage at Talen Energy Stadium and recent attacking output push them to 51 percent favorites, but our model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline. Expected goals suggest Philadelphia should dominate possession and chances, but New England have shown they can frustrate opponents despite weaker overall performance. The Revolution's head-to-head record against the Union is poor, winning just one of the last four meetings, which further supports the home side. Data quality on this forecast sits at 37 percent due to missing injury and availability information, so treat this with appropriate caution.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  Philadelphia Union won four of five with 15 goals scored; New England Revolution mixed results with defensive vulnerabilities against top sides.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Home advantage factored into model at Talen Energy Stadium.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  Philadelphia Union won 3 of last 4 direct meetings versus New England Revolution.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.63 for Philadelphia Union and 1.01 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 51 for Philadelphia Union, 23 for New England Revolution and 26 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Philadelphia Union win band is held at 31 to 70.