New York City FC vs New England Revolution prediction

The take

This is a tight fixture with genuine uncertainty baked in. The model gives New England a marginal edge in win probability (37 percent to 35 percent), but a draw at 28 percent sits firmly in play. Expected goals are nearly level: New York City create 1.27 while New England generate 1.33, suggesting a low-scoring, competitive match. New York City enter on poor form with three losses in their last five, though two draws show some resilience. New England have been erratic, winning one and losing two of their last five despite a dominant 3-0 victory over DC United. Head to head they have split evenly across their last four meetings. Home advantage at Yankee Stadium offers New York City some support, but it is not enough to shift the needle decisively.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  New York City FC have won 1 of their last 5 (3 losses, 1 draw); New England Revolution have won 2 of their last 5 (2 losses, 1 draw).

• Venue, travel and rest

  New York City FC play at home; standard home advantage is priced into the model.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  Their last 4 meetings: New York City FC won 1, New England Revolution won 1, 2 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for New York City FC and 1.33 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 35 for New York City FC, 37 for New England Revolution and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 17 to 55.