Who is favourite for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Our model gives USA a 51 percent chance. The probability split is USA 51 percent, draw 27 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina 22 percent.

What is the predicted score for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Our pick for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina is 1-0, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips USA to advance.

Who does the model expect to advance in USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?

USA, with a 64 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.

What was the final result of USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Final result: 2-0. We called 1-0. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · San Francisco Stadium (USA home)

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction: co-hosts USA at home against Edin Dzeko's Bosnia. The model gives USA 51 percent and tips USA to go through.

Last updated 28 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC

morrow.news1 Jul, 00:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

USA 51%Draw 27%Bosnia and Herzegovina 22%

Called 1-0Final 2-0Right call

USA 51%Draw 27%Bosnia and Herzegovina 22%

51%USA win, band 41 to 62Pick 1-0

Kickoff Wednesday 1 July 2026, 00:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

Knockout tie, no draw. The model's pick to go through is USA, 64 percent to advance after extra time and penalties if it is level.

The take

The USA against Bosnia is a home knockout the co-hosts will expect to win. The USA carry a Europe based spine in Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie and a home crowd behind them, while Bosnia rely on the experience of Edin Dzeko. The home edge and depth point the model to the USA.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
The USA won Group D, Bosnia reached the last 32 as a best third out of Group B.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The USA are ranked around seventeenth, Bosnia a little lower.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The USA hold a squad value edge, Bosnia lean on an experienced spine.
Player level by league and club
The USA build around Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie, Bosnia around Edin Dzeko.
Availability and injuries
The USA managed Pulisic's fitness through the group, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A home crowd in San Francisco gives the co-hosts a clear lift, which the model adds.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A home knockout for the USA, a major upset bid for Bosnia.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.64 for USA and 1.01 for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 51 for USA, 27 for a draw and 22 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the USA win band sits at 41 to 62.

What happened

2-0Right call · we picked 1-0

USA advanced.

USA 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 at full time. Goals: F. Balogun 45 for USA, M. Tillman 82 for USA. F. Balogun of USA sent off 64. USA advanced.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Our model gives USA a 51 percent chance. The probability split is USA 51 percent, draw 27 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina 22 percent.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Our pick for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina is 1-0, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips USA to advance.
Who does the model expect to advance in USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?: USA, with a 64 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.
What was the final result of USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Final result: 2-0. We called 1-0. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.