Chicago Fire vs New York City FC prediction

The take

Chicago Fire have the home advantage and a slight edge in expected goals, 1.4 to 1.21, which underpins a 40 percent win probability compared to New York City FC's 32 percent. However, recent form tells a mixed story for both sides. Chicago have won twice but lost twice in their last five, while New York City FC have managed only one win in their same span and have conceded just once across their last two outings. The head to head favors the visitors sharply, New York City FC winning three of the last four meetings. All told, a draw at 1-1 emerges as the most likely outcome at 28 percent probability, with Chicago's home field counting for something but not enough to break a stalemate.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  Chicago Fire 2W-2L-1D in last five; New York City FC 1W-2L-2D in last five.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Chicago Fire home advantage at Soldier Field factored into model.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  New York City FC won 3 of last 4 meetings; 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.40 for Chicago Fire and 1.21 for New York City FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for Chicago Fire, 32 for New York City FC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Chicago Fire win band is held at 22 to 60.