New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC prediction

The take

Orlando City arrive in strong form, winning four of their last five and drawing the other, while New England have been more inconsistent with two wins, two losses, and a draw in the same stretch. The model gives Orlando a 43 percent chance to win compared to New England's 29 percent, though a draw at 28 percent is well in play. The predicted score of 1-1 reflects the tightness of this matchup, with Orlando's expected goals slightly higher at 1.45 to New England's 1.17. Head to head favors the visitors too, who have won two of the last three meetings. Data quality is low at 0.37, so treat this forecast with appropriate caution, but the numbers point to a difficult night for the Revolution despite playing at home.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  Orlando City won 4 of 5 recent games (2-1, 3-3, 1-0, 3-2, 3-0); New England went 2-2-1 (1-1, 3-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-1).

• Venue, travel and rest

  Gillette Stadium home advantage is reflected in the model's pricing.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 3)

  Orlando City won 2 of the last 3 meetings with New England; 1 draw.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.17 for New England Revolution and 1.45 for Orlando City SC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 29 for New England Revolution, 43 for Orlando City SC and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New England Revolution win band is held at 14 to 49.