Who is favourite for Scotland vs Morocco?

Our model gives Morocco a 65 percent chance. The probability split is Scotland 13 percent, draw 22 percent, Morocco 65 percent.

What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Morocco?

Our predicted scoreline for Scotland vs Morocco is 0-2, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Scotland vs Morocco?

Final result: 0-1. We called 0-2. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.

← morrow.news

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2 · Boston Stadium (neutral)

Scotland vs Morocco prediction

Scotland vs Morocco prediction: group leaders Scotland against the 2022 semifinalists. The model gives Morocco 65 percent and calls a 0-2.

Last updated 15 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC

morrow.news19 Jun, 22:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2

Scotland vs Morocco

Scotland 13%Draw 22%Morocco 65%

Called 0-2Final 0-1Right call

Scotland 13%Draw 22%Morocco 65%

65%Morocco win, band 7 to 20Pick 0-2

Kickoff Friday 19 June 2026, 22:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

Morocco arrive ranked seventh in the world, a 2022 semifinalist with a squad of elite club talent and a long unbeaten run behind them. Scotland arrive on a high, top of the group after beating Haiti, but a clear step below by ranking, value and individual quality. Their position and momentum count for something, yet the gap in class points one way. This is a preliminary read several days out, so the band is held wide.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Morocco are on a long unbeaten run, won their African group with a perfect record, and opened with a 1-1 draw against Brazil. Scotland ended a 28 year absence and opened with a 1-0 win over Haiti through John McGinn.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Morocco are ranked 7th in the world, Scotland 42nd, one of the wider gaps in the round.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Morocco are valued in the range of 447 to 488 million euros, a top dozen squad. Scotland are valued near 170 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Morocco field elite league regulars, Achraf Hakimi at Paris Saint-Germain, Brahim Diaz at Real Madrid and Noussair Mazraoui at Manchester United. Scotland are anchored by Scott McTominay at Napoli and captain Andy Robertson.
Availability and injuries
Morocco are without Nayef Aguerd and Abde Ezzalzouli for the tournament, with Hakimi over a thigh issue. Scotland lost Billy Gilmour before the finals and watched Che Adams' fitness. Matchday two lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Boston Stadium is neutral, and both played their openers in the northeast, so travel and rest are broadly even.
Head to head
Their only meeting was a 3-0 Morocco win at the 1998 World Cup, too old to carry weight, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Scotland top the group on three points and a result moves them close to a first ever knockout place. Morocco, a 2022 semifinalist, need a win after drawing Brazil to control their group.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.74 for Scotland and 1.95 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Morocco, 22 for a draw and 13 for Scotland, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because there is no usable head to head and the matchday two lineups are not yet set, so the Scotland win band is wide and low at 7 to 20.

What happened

0-1Right call · we picked 0-2

Morocco beat Scotland 1-0 in Boston, Ismael Saibari striking after just 72 seconds, the fastest goal of the tournament so far. The 2022 semifinalists managed the game from there, and the result left Scotland's hopes of a first ever knockout stage on a knife edge going into the Brazil game. We had Morocco to win and called 0-2, the winner was right but the margin was tighter than the model expected.

The controversy

Nothing significant was disputed. Scotland pressed for an equaliser without a contested decision turning the game, and the officials were not the story.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Scotland vs Morocco?: Our model gives Morocco a 65 percent chance. The probability split is Scotland 13 percent, draw 22 percent, Morocco 65 percent.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Morocco?: Our predicted scoreline for Scotland vs Morocco is 0-2, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Scotland vs Morocco?: Final result: 0-1. We called 0-2. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.