Who is favourite for Ecuador vs Ivory Coast?

Our model gives Ecuador a 39 percent chance. The probability split is Ecuador 39 percent, draw 28 percent, Ivory Coast 33 percent.

What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Ivory Coast?

Our predicted scoreline for Ecuador vs Ivory Coast is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Ecuador vs Ivory Coast?

Final result: 0-1. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 1 · Philadelphia Stadium (neutral)

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast prediction

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast prediction: a Moises Caicedo led Ecuador against a top five league stocked Ivory Coast.

Last updated 12 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC

morrow.news14 Jun, 22:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group E, Matchday 1

Ecuador vs Ivory Coast

Ecuador 39%Draw 28%Ivory Coast 33%

Called 1-1Final 0-1Missed

Ecuador 39%Draw 28%Ivory Coast 33%

39%Ecuador win, band 29 to 49Pick 1-1

Kickoff Sunday 14 June 2026, 22:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

Ecuador against Ivory Coast is one of the model's tightest calls in Group E, two organised, physical sides separated by almost nothing. Ecuador trust Moises Caicedo and a Premier League spine, Ivory Coast a top five league core around Amad Diallo. The model sees a coin flip with a low scoreline.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Two well matched sides, Ecuador organised and hard to beat, Ivory Coast carrying real European pedigree.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Ecuador are ranked around twenty third, Ivory Coast close behind.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, with little to separate the two.
Player level by league and club
Ecuador build around Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho, Ivory Coast around Amad Diallo and a top five league core.
Availability and injuries
Both squads were close to full, though lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A near even tie that could shape second place in Group E.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.37 for Ecuador and 1.24 for Ivory Coast. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 39 for Ecuador, 28 for a draw and 33 for Ivory Coast, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Ecuador win band sits at 29 to 49.

What happened

0-1Missed · we picked 1-1

Ivory Coast edged Ecuador 1-0 for their first World Cup win in twelve years. Ecuador dominated the first half and hit the woodwork, but the chances would not fall, and Amad Diallo struck the late winner to settle a tight Group E meeting. The model had it as a coin flip, and the margin proved as fine as expected, just the wrong way for the favourite tag.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. Ecuador's missed chances, not the officials, decided it.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Ecuador vs Ivory Coast?: Our model gives Ecuador a 39 percent chance. The probability split is Ecuador 39 percent, draw 28 percent, Ivory Coast 33 percent.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Ivory Coast?: Our predicted scoreline for Ecuador vs Ivory Coast is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Ecuador vs Ivory Coast?: Final result: 0-1. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.