Who is favourite for Tunisia vs Sweden?

Our model gives Sweden a 53 percent chance. The probability split is Tunisia 21 percent, draw 26 percent, Sweden 53 percent.

What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Sweden?

Our predicted scoreline for Tunisia vs Sweden is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Tunisia vs Sweden?

Final result: 1-5. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F, Matchday 1 · Monterrey Stadium (neutral)

Tunisia vs Sweden prediction

Tunisia vs Sweden prediction: a defensive Tunisia against Sweden's elite strike pair of Isak and Gyokeres.

Last updated 12 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC

morrow.news14 Jun, 22:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F, Matchday 1

Tunisia vs Sweden

Tunisia 21%Draw 26%Sweden 53%

Called 1-1Final 1-5Missed

Tunisia 21%Draw 26%Sweden 53%

53%Sweden win, band 14 to 30Pick 1-1

Kickoff Sunday 14 June 2026, 22:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

Tunisia against Sweden pits a disciplined African defence against one of the most potent strike pairs at the finals. Sweden's Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres give them a clear edge in firepower, while Tunisia will look to frustrate and counter. The model leans Sweden, with Tunisia's organisation the main check.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Sweden arrive with the more dangerous attack, Tunisia with a disciplined defensive shape.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Sweden a little higher.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Sweden hold a clear squad value edge, carrying two elite strikers.
Player level by league and club
Sweden build around Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, Tunisia around a compact, experienced block.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Monterrey with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Both want a strong start, Sweden the favourites on firepower.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 0.98 for Tunisia and 1.67 for Sweden. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 21 for Tunisia, 26 for a draw and 53 for Sweden, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Tunisia win band sits at 14 to 30.

What happened

1-5Missed · we picked 1-1

Sweden ran riot to beat Tunisia 5-1 in Monterrey. Anis Ben Slimane's side were undone by a Bilal Ayari brace either side of the game, with Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Svanberg also scoring, Rekik's strike a brief reply. The rout sent Sweden top at that stage, though Netherlands and Japan ultimately went through. The model leaned Sweden, just nowhere near this margin.

The controversy

Nothing was disputed in a one sided night. Sweden's finishing, not the officials, told the story.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Tunisia vs Sweden?: Our model gives Sweden a 53 percent chance. The probability split is Tunisia 21 percent, draw 26 percent, Sweden 53 percent.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Sweden?: Our predicted scoreline for Tunisia vs Sweden is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Tunisia vs Sweden?: Final result: 1-5. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.