Who is favourite for Czechia vs South Korea?

Our model gives South Korea a 41 percent chance. The probability split is Czechia 31 percent, draw 28 percent, South Korea 41 percent.

What is the predicted score for Czechia vs South Korea?

Our predicted scoreline for Czechia vs South Korea is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Czechia vs South Korea?

Final result: 1-2. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 1 · Guadalajara Stadium (neutral)

Czechia vs South Korea prediction

Czechia vs South Korea prediction: Patrik Schick's Czechia against a Son Heung-min led South Korea on opening day.

Last updated 9 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC

morrow.news11 Jun, 19:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A, Matchday 1

Czechia vs South Korea

Czechia 31%Draw 28%South Korea 41%

Called 1-1Final 1-2Missed

Czechia 31%Draw 28%South Korea 41%

41%South Korea win, band 22 to 41Pick 1-1

Kickoff Thursday 11 June 2026, 19:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

Czechia and South Korea open Group A as the two sides most likely to chase Mexico. Czechia trust Patrik Schick and a disciplined shape, South Korea a quicker, European based core around Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in and Kim Min-jae. The model sees barely a sliver between them.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Both arrive solid but unspectacular, Czechia built around Patrik Schick, South Korea around a settled core.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
South Korea sit a little higher in the FIFA ranking, around the mid twenties, with Czechia in the thirties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, South Korea edging it on their European based spine.
Player level by league and club
South Korea carry Lee Kang-in and Kim Min-jae with Son Heung-min, Czechia lean on Schick and Ladislav Krejci.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
A tight opener in a balanced Group A, both desperate for a winning start.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.2 for Czechia and 1.42 for South Korea. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for Czechia, 28 for a draw and 41 for South Korea, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Czechia win band sits at 22 to 41.

What happened

1-2Missed · we picked 1-1

South Korea came from behind to beat Czechia 2-1 on opening day. Ladislav Krejci headed Czechia in front just before the hour, but Hwang In-beom levelled in the 67th minute and Oh Hyeon-gyu struck the winner on 80 to settle a tense Group A opener. Our call had it close, and so it proved, with the late South Korea push the difference.

The controversy

Nothing material was disputed. The game turned on South Korea's quality off the bench rather than a refereeing call.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Czechia vs South Korea?: Our model gives South Korea a 41 percent chance. The probability split is Czechia 31 percent, draw 28 percent, South Korea 41 percent.
What is the predicted score for Czechia vs South Korea?: Our predicted scoreline for Czechia vs South Korea is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Czechia vs South Korea?: Final result: 1-2. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.