Who is favourite for Germany vs Paraguay?

Our model gives Germany a 68 percent chance. The probability split is Germany 68 percent, draw 21 percent, Paraguay 11 percent.

What is the predicted score for Germany vs Paraguay?

Our pick for Germany vs Paraguay is 2-0, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips Germany to advance.

Who does the model expect to advance in Germany vs Paraguay?

Germany, with a 78 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.

What was the final result of Germany vs Paraguay?

Final result: 1-1. We called 2-0. Missed, the winner did not match.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Boston Stadium (neutral)

Germany vs Paraguay prediction

Germany vs Paraguay prediction: a billion euro Germany against Gustavo Alfaro's stubborn Paraguay. The model gives Germany 68 percent and calls a 2-0.

Last updated 28 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC

morrow.news29 Jun, 20:30 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32

Germany vs Paraguay

Germany 68%Draw 21%Paraguay 11%

Called 2-0Final 1-1 (Paraguay on pens)Missed

Germany 68%Draw 21%Paraguay 11%

68%Germany win, band 58 to 77Pick 2-0

Kickoff Monday 29 June 2026, 20:30 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

Knockout tie, no draw. The model's pick to go through is Germany, 78 percent to advance after extra time and penalties if it is level.

The take

Germany against Paraguay is a clash of ceiling and stubbornness. Germany hold a vast edge in talent through Musiala, Wirtz and Havertz, but they arrive rattled after losing to Ecuador, and Paraguay are organised and hard to break under Gustavo Alfaro. The model still points firmly to Germany.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Germany recovered from a shock loss to Ecuador to reach the last 32, Paraguay sneaked through as a best third.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Germany are ranked around ninth in the world, Paraguay in the forties.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Germany field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Paraguay many multiples below.
Player level by league and club
Germany carry Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz, Paraguay a disciplined, mostly South American base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Boston with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Germany want to settle nerves after a wobbly group, Paraguay arrive with nothing to lose.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.02 for Germany and 0.68 for Paraguay. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 68 for Germany, 21 for a draw and 11 for Paraguay, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Germany win band sits at 58 to 77.

What happened

1-1Missed · we picked 2-0

Paraguay advanced on penalties (4-3).

Germany and Paraguay finished 1-1 after extra time, and Paraguay won the shootout 4-3 to pull off one of the great World Cup upsets. Julio Enciso headed Paraguay in front on 42 minutes from a Matias Galarza cross, and Kai Havertz levelled with a glancing header from Florian Wirtz eight minutes after the break. A Jonathan Tah goal was ruled out by VAR for a foul on the goalkeeper, and after a goalless extra time it went to penalties. Havertz missed the opening kick and Germany missed three in all, while Jose Canale scored the decisive spot kick. It was the first time Germany had ever lost a World Cup shootout. We tipped Germany to go through, and that call missed.

The controversy

Germany's Jonathan Tah had a goal from a corner ruled out after a VAR review found a foul on the Paraguay goalkeeper, the night's biggest flashpoint. The decision stood on review, and Germany could not find another way through.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Germany vs Paraguay?: Our model gives Germany a 68 percent chance. The probability split is Germany 68 percent, draw 21 percent, Paraguay 11 percent.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Paraguay?: Our pick for Germany vs Paraguay is 2-0, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips Germany to advance.
Who does the model expect to advance in Germany vs Paraguay?: Germany, with a 78 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.
What was the final result of Germany vs Paraguay?: Final result: 1-1. We called 2-0. Missed, the winner did not match.