Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution prediction

The take

Chicago Fire are favored at 40% to win, with New England taking 32% and a draw at 28%. The model expects a 1-1 stalemate, reflecting relatively even expected goals: Chicago 1.39, New England 1.22. Chicago's home advantage at Soldier Field supports the slight edge, and they hold a 2-0 record in their last three head-to-head meetings. However, data quality here is modest at 0.37, meaning missing factors like current squad availability and team motivation could shift the picture. New England's recent form is stronger (three wins in their last five), while Chicago have drawn four of their last five, suggesting both sides are capable of cancelling each other out.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  Chicago Fire show a pattern of draws (W-D-D-D-D in last 5); New England are more volatile with three wins, a draw, and a loss in their last five.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Chicago Fire's home advantage at Soldier Field is factored into the 40% win probability.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 3)

  Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 3 meetings against New England Revolution, with 1 draw and no losses.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.39 for Chicago Fire and 1.22 for New England Revolution. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 40 for Chicago Fire, 32 for New England Revolution and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Chicago Fire win band is held at 22 to 60.