FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Dallas Stadium (neutral)
Ivory Coast vs Norway prediction
Ivory Coast vs Norway prediction: a top five league stocked Ivory Coast against Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The model gives Norway 44 percent and tips Norway to go through.
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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
Ivory Coast vs Norway
Kickoff Tuesday 30 June 2026, 17:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.
Knockout tie, no draw. The model's pick to go through is Norway, 58 percent to advance after extra time and penalties if it is level.
The take
Ivory Coast against Norway is one of the tighter ties of the round, a physical, talented African side against a Norway team built around Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The star power tilts the model gently to Norway, but Ivory Coast have the legs and quality to make it a long night.
The signals
- Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Ivory Coast finished second in Group E, Norway second in Group I behind France.
- FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
The sides are close on ranking, Norway marginally higher.
- Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Squad values are close, Norway edging it on their star names.
- Player level by league and club
Ivory Coast carry Amad Diallo and a top five league core, Norway lean on Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard.
- Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
- Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Dallas with both sides on similar rest.
- Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
- Stakes and motivation
Both chase a first deep run, Norway in their first World Cup in a generation.
The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.
The math
Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.15 for Ivory Coast and 1.48 for Norway. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 28 for Ivory Coast, 28 for a draw and 44 for Norway, with 0-1 the most likely scoreline that produces a winner, a draw after 90 minutes going to extra time and penalties. Data quality is 0.87, so the Ivory Coast win band sits at 20 to 38.
What happened
Norway advanced.
Ivory Coast 1 Norway 2 at full time. Goals: A. Nusa 39 for Norway, A. Diallo 74 for Ivory Coast, E. Haaland 86 for Norway. Norway advanced.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Ivory Coast vs Norway?
- Our model gives Norway a 44 percent chance. The probability split is Ivory Coast 28 percent, draw 28 percent, Norway 44 percent.
- What is the predicted score for Ivory Coast vs Norway?
- Our pick for Ivory Coast vs Norway is 0-1, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips Norway to advance.
- Who does the model expect to advance in Ivory Coast vs Norway?
- Norway, with a 58 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.
- What was the final result of Ivory Coast vs Norway?
- Final result: 1-2. We called 0-1. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.
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