Who is favourite for Brazil vs Morocco?

Our model gives Brazil a 49 percent chance. The probability split is Brazil 49 percent, draw 27 percent, Morocco 24 percent.

What is the predicted score for Brazil vs Morocco?

Our predicted scoreline for Brazil vs Morocco is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Brazil vs Morocco?

Final result: 1-1. We called 1-1. Hit, the exact scoreline matched.

← morrow.news

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2 · New York New Jersey Stadium (neutral)

Brazil vs Morocco prediction

Brazil vs Morocco prediction: five times champions Brazil against the 2022 semifinalists Morocco, the pick of Group C.

Last updated 11 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC

morrow.news13 Jun, 19:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 2

Brazil vs Morocco

Brazil 49%Draw 27%Morocco 24%

Called 1-1Final 1-1Hit

Brazil 49%Draw 27%Morocco 24%

49%Brazil win, band 41 to 58Pick 1-1

Kickoff Saturday 13 June 2026, 19:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

Brazil against Morocco is the standout of Group C, the five times champions against the side that reached the 2022 semifinals. Brazil hold the edge in ceiling through Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, but Morocco's Europe based spine of Hakimi, Amrabat and Ziyech is the kind that troubles anyone. The model favours Brazil only narrowly.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Brazil arrive among the favourites, Morocco as the strongest of the chasers and 2022 semifinalists.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Brazil are ranked sixth in the world, Morocco around twelfth, a meaningful but not huge gap.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Brazil field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Morocco a clear step below but well stocked.
Player level by league and club
Brazil carry Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, Morocco a Europe based core in Hakimi, Amrabat and Ziyech.
Availability and injuries
Brazil managed a few attacking knocks, so availability is treated as slightly reduced.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Older meetings only, discounted, so the head to head barely moves the call.
Stakes and motivation
A likely group decider, both chasing top spot in Group C.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.6 for Brazil and 1.04 for Morocco. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 49 for Brazil, 27 for a draw and 24 for Morocco, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.95, so the Brazil win band sits at 41 to 58.

What happened

1-1Hit · we picked 1-1

Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in a high class Group C meeting. Ismael Saibari put Morocco ahead on 21 minutes before Vinicius Junior levelled with a stunner just after the half hour, and a late Alisson double save preserved the point. Brazil topped the group on goal difference, Morocco finished second, both through. Our forecast caught the closeness if not the exact goals.

The controversy

Nothing decisive was disputed. The talking point was Alisson's late double save rather than any refereeing call.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Brazil vs Morocco?: Our model gives Brazil a 49 percent chance. The probability split is Brazil 49 percent, draw 27 percent, Morocco 24 percent.
What is the predicted score for Brazil vs Morocco?: Our predicted scoreline for Brazil vs Morocco is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Brazil vs Morocco?: Final result: 1-1. We called 1-1. Hit, the exact scoreline matched.