Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction

The take

Houston arrive in strong form, winning four of their last five matches including back-to-back 2-0 victories. San Jose, by contrast, have lost their last four games and shipped 13 goals in that run. The model backs Houston to win with a 65% probability and predicts a 2-0 scoreline, with expected goals heavily favoring the home side at 1.94 to 0.75. The head-to-head record shows these sides have competed fairly evenly historically, but current trajectory and home advantage point decisively toward a Dynamo win. There is meaningful uncertainty here, with a draw carrying 22% probability, though San Jose's recent collapse makes them difficult to back.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  Houston have won four of five recent matches; San Jose have lost four consecutive and conceded 13 goals in that stretch.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Houston play at home, a standard advantage the model accounts for in its forecast.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 3)

  Their last three meetings produced one win each and one draw, suggesting competitive history despite current form disparity.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.94 for Houston Dynamo and 0.75 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 65 for Houston Dynamo, 13 for San Jose Earthquakes and 22 for a draw, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Houston Dynamo win band is held at 44 to 82.