Who is favourite for Algeria vs Austria?

Our model gives Austria a 38 percent chance. The probability split is Algeria 34 percent, draw 28 percent, Austria 38 percent.

What is the predicted score for Algeria vs Austria?

Our predicted scoreline for Algeria vs Austria is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Algeria vs Austria?

Final result: 3-3. We called 1-1. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 3 · Kansas City Stadium (neutral)

Algeria vs Austria prediction

Algeria vs Austria prediction: Riyad Mahrez against David Alaba in a near even Group J tie. The model gives Austria 38 percent, Algeria 34, and calls a 1-1.

Last updated 15 Jun 2026, 17:15 UTC

morrow.news27 Jun, 02:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J, Matchday 3

Algeria vs Austria

Algeria 34%Draw 28%Austria 38%

Called 1-1Final 3-3Right call

Algeria 34%Draw 28%Austria 38%

38%Austria win, band 25 to 44Pick 1-1

Kickoff Saturday 27 June 2026, 02:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

This is one of the closest ties of the round. Algeria and Austria are almost level by ranking and value, two well matched sides. Austria carry slightly more top club pedigree through Alaba, Laimer and Sabitzer, Algeria the cutting edge of Mahrez and Amoura. The model can barely separate them, leaning a fraction to Austria. This is a preliminary read several days out, so the band is held wide.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Algeria topped their African group to reach a first World Cup since 2014. Austria won their European group with a heavy goal difference, winning four of their last five qualifiers.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Austria are ranked 24th in the world, Algeria around 28th, a close contest.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
The squads are nearly level, Algeria near 257 million euros and Austria near 245 million euros.
Player level by league and club
Algeria field captain Riyad Mahrez and Mohamed Amoura at Wolfsburg. Austria are anchored by David Alaba at Real Madrid, Konrad Laimer at Bayern Munich and Marcel Sabitzer, with strong Bundesliga depth.
Availability and injuries
Algeria watch a doubt over Ramy Bensebaini, with Mahrez and Amoura available. Austria have Alaba back from a knee injury and report a settled squad. Matchday three lineups are not yet set, so this input is preliminary.
Venue, travel and rest
Kansas City Stadium is a neutral venue, with both sides on similar rest.
Head to head
Their only meeting was a 1982 World Cup game, far too old to weight, so the model leaves the head to head out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Likely decisive for second place behind Argentina. Mahrez is in a likely final tournament, Austria chase knockout football, so motivation runs high on both sides.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.26 for Algeria and 1.35 for Austria. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 38 for Austria, 34 for Algeria and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline in a near even game. Data quality is held lower at 0.87 because the head to head is far too old to use and the matchday three lineups are not yet set, so the Algeria win band is wide at 25 to 44.

What happened

3-3Right call · we picked 1-1

Algeria and Austria drew 3-3 in a wild Group J finale in Kansas City that sent both through and eliminated Iran. Marko Arnautovic and Marcel Sabitzer put Austria in control, but Riyad Mahrez struck twice, the second about a minute into stoppage time to look like the winner, only for Sasa Kalajdzic to head home an equaliser moments later. Our 1-1 call caught the draw but nowhere near the goals.

The controversy

Nothing was formally disputed in a chaotic, end to end game. The talking point was that the 3-3 sent both Algeria and Austria into the knockout round at Iran's expense, but the drama was in the late goals, not the officiating.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Algeria vs Austria?: Our model gives Austria a 38 percent chance. The probability split is Algeria 34 percent, draw 28 percent, Austria 38 percent.
What is the predicted score for Algeria vs Austria?: Our predicted scoreline for Algeria vs Austria is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Algeria vs Austria?: Final result: 3-3. We called 1-1. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.