FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Neutral venue
Switzerland vs Colombia prediction
Switzerland and Colombia meet in the Round of 16 with the forecast leaning slightly toward the South Americans, though this is a tight contest that could easily go either way.
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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
Switzerland vs Colombia
Kickoff Tuesday 7 July 2026, 20:00 UTC. Based on 3 signals.
Knockout tie, no draw. The model's pick to go through is Colombia, 53 percent to advance after extra time and penalties if it is level.
The take
Colombia are ranked 13th in the world compared to Switzerland's 19th, and our model gives them a 53 percent chance to advance from this knockout tie. The predicted score is 1-1, which reflects how evenly matched these teams look on current form. Switzerland have won three of their last four matches but also drew 1-1 with Qatar, while Colombia won three straight before a goalless draw with Portugal. Expected goals are nearly level at 1.27 for Switzerland and 1.34 for Colombia, suggesting a cagey game where both defenses will be tested but neither will run away with it. Colombia's slight edge in the rankings and our model gives them the nod, but a 34 percent win probability for Switzerland and a 28 percent draw probability show this is genuinely uncertain. The knockout format and neutral venue mean normal home advantage plays no role.
The signals
- Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
Switzerland 3W1D in last four games; Colombia 3W1D over same period.
- FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Colombia ranked 13th, Switzerland 19th as of 11 June 2026.
- Venue, travel and rest
Neutral ground with comparable rest for both sides.
The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.
The math
3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.27 for Switzerland and 1.34 for Colombia. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 34 for Switzerland, 38 for Colombia and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.52 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (squad value, player rating, availability, h2h, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the Switzerland win band is held at 19 to 51.
What happened
Switzerland advanced on penalties (4-3).
Switzerland 0 Colombia 0 after extra time. Goals: J. Quintero 120+1 for Colombia penalty, G. Xhaka 120+1 for Switzerland penalty, Z. Amdouni 120+2 for Switzerland penalty, J. Campaz 120+3 for Colombia penalty, C. Itten 120+4 for Switzerland penalty, L. Diaz 120+5 for Colombia penalty, R. Vargas 120+5 for Switzerland penalty. Switzerland won the penalty shootout 4-3 to advance.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Switzerland vs Colombia?
- Our model gives Colombia a 38 percent chance. The probability split is Switzerland 34 percent, draw 28 percent, Colombia 38 percent.
- What is the predicted score for Switzerland vs Colombia?
- Our pick for Switzerland vs Colombia is 1-1, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips Colombia to advance.
- Who does the model expect to advance in Switzerland vs Colombia?
- Colombia, with a 53 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.
- What was the final result of Switzerland vs Colombia?
- Final result: 0-0. We called 1-1. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.
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