Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24 · Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction
San Diego host San Jose Earthquakes in a matchday 24 clash where the hosts are favoured but far from certain. The model sees this as a tight contest with a draw the likely outcome.
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Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 24
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
Kickoff Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Based on 3 signals.
The take
San Diego come into this fixture with superior recent form, winning three of their last five matches including a 3-0 victory over Colorado and a 3-1 win against Los Angeles Galaxy. San Jose, by contrast, have struggled badly, losing three of their last five games with heavy defeats to Minnesota and St. Louis City. At home, San Diego hold an edge in both the model's win probability and expected goals generation, 1.62 to 1.02. However, the teams are evenly matched historically, splitting their last four meetings. The model forecasts a 1-1 draw as the most likely result, with San Diego's home advantage giving them a slight edge in win probability at 50 percent compared to San Jose's 23 percent. Data quality is limited, meaning there are significant unknowns around squad availability, player ratings, and team motivation that could shift the outcome.
The signals
- Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
San Diego won three of their last five; San Jose lost three of their last five with particularly heavy defeats.
- Venue, travel and rest
San Diego's home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium is factored into the model.
- Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
The teams have split their last four meetings evenly, two wins each with no draws.
The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.
The math
3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.62 for San Diego and 1.02 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 50 for San Diego, 23 for San Jose Earthquakes and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the San Diego win band is held at 30 to 70.
What happened
San Diego 2 San Jose Earthquakes 3 at full time. Goals: N.Tsakiris 3 for San Jose Earthquakes, Preston Judd 12 for San Jose Earthquakes, Ousseni Bouda 35 for San Jose Earthquakes, Anders Dreyer 42 for San Diego, Cédric Bakambu 90+4 for San Diego penalty. Carlos Joaquim dos Santos of San Diego sent off 80. Max Floriani of San Jose Earthquakes sent off 90+2.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Our model gives San Diego a 50 percent chance. The probability split is San Diego 50 percent, draw 27 percent, San Jose Earthquakes 23 percent.
- What is the predicted score for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Our predicted scoreline for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
- What was the final result of San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Final result: 2-3. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.
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