Who is favourite for Scotland vs Haiti?

Our model gives Scotland a 57 percent chance. The probability split is Scotland 57 percent, draw 25 percent, Haiti 18 percent.

What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Haiti?

Our predicted scoreline for Scotland vs Haiti is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.

What was the final result of Scotland vs Haiti?

Final result: 1-0. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.

← morrow.news

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 1 · Boston Stadium (neutral)

Scotland vs Haiti prediction

Scotland vs Haiti prediction: Scotland chasing a first ever knockout stage against a spirited Haiti.

Last updated 11 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC

morrow.news13 Jun, 16:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group C, Matchday 1

Scotland vs Haiti

Scotland 57%Draw 25%Haiti 18%

Called 1-1Final 1-0Missed

Scotland 57%Draw 25%Haiti 18%

57%Scotland win, band 46 to 67Pick 1-1

Kickoff Saturday 13 June 2026, 16:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

The take

Scotland against Haiti is a chance for the Tartan Army to take a grip on Group C. Scotland are the stronger side on every structural signal, built around John McGinn, while Haiti are organised but short of cutting edge. The model expects a Scotland win, though a low scoring night keeps the margin honest.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Scotland arrive the steadier side, Haiti spirited but light on goals.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, 11 June 2026
Scotland sit well above Haiti in the FIFA ranking, one of the group's wider gaps.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Scotland's squad value is several multiples above Haiti's modest total.
Player level by league and club
Scotland lean on John McGinn and a Premier League spine, Haiti on Duckens Nazon and a scattered base.
Availability and injuries
Matchday one lineups were not fully confirmed, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue with both sides on equal rest.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Scotland carry the weight of a long wait for knockout football, Haiti the freedom of underdogs.

The referee appointment was not recorded for this match. The official enters the model only as cards, penalties and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.76 for Scotland and 0.91 for Haiti. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 57 for Scotland, 25 for a draw and 18 for Haiti, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Scotland win band sits at 46 to 67.

What happened

1-0Missed · we picked 1-1

Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 to climb to the top of Group C. John McGinn settled a tense night with a deflected finish on 28 minutes, and Scotland held on as Brazil and Morocco drew earlier in the day. The narrow win was enough and matched the model's lean, even if the single goal kept it tighter than the favourites would have liked.

The controversy

Nothing significant was disputed. The winner took a deflection but the decision itself drew no protest.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Scotland vs Haiti?: Our model gives Scotland a 57 percent chance. The probability split is Scotland 57 percent, draw 25 percent, Haiti 18 percent.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Haiti?: Our predicted scoreline for Scotland vs Haiti is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
What was the final result of Scotland vs Haiti?: Final result: 1-0. We called 1-1. Missed, the winner did not match.