Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 27 · Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City prediction
New York Red Bulls host St. Louis City on Matchday 27 as the teams face off in a tight contest that the model leans slightly toward the visitors.
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Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 27
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
Kickoff Wednesday 30 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Based on 3 signals.
The take
St. Louis City arrives at Sports Illustrated Stadium as narrow favorites with 41 percent win probability, and their recent form supports it. The visitors have won three of their last five, including a 4-2 demolition of Minnesota, while New York's last month has been choppy with two losses sandwiched around a shutout draw. The model expects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, reflecting attacking potential on both sides but defensive vulnerability. St. Louis edges in expected goals 1.41 to 1.21, a modest advantage that translates to a three-goal swing favoring them across the win probability bands. Home advantage is factored in for New York, yet it is not enough to overcome St. Louis's recent momentum in this forecast.
The signals
- Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
New York won twice but lost twice in tracked games; St. Louis won three times in five matches with only draws from their losses.
- Venue, travel and rest
New York plays at home where standard home advantage is priced into the model.
- Head to head (API-Football, last 3)
The sides split their last three meetings with one win each and one draw.
The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.
The math
3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.21 for New York Red Bulls and 1.41 for St. Louis City. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 31 for New York Red Bulls, 41 for St. Louis City and 28 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York Red Bulls win band is held at 15 to 51.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
- Our model gives St. Louis City a 41 percent chance. The probability split is New York Red Bulls 31 percent, draw 28 percent, St. Louis City 41 percent.
- What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
- Our predicted scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
- When does New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City kick off?
- New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City kicks off Wednesday 30 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
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