Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 26 · Yankee Stadium, New York
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls prediction
New York City FC host New York Red Bulls in a Hudson River derby where the model leans toward the hosts despite a crowded middle ground. A draw is the statistical prediction, but City have the slight edge.
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Major League Soccer 2026 · Matchday 26
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
Kickoff Friday 18 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Based on 3 signals.
The take
The model gives City a 47 percent chance to win, with Red Bulls at 26 percent and a draw at 27 percent, reflecting a relatively tight contest. City's recent record shows resilience, alternating draws with a win and loss, while Red Bulls have been more erratic with two losses in their last five. Historically, City dominate this fixture, winning three of the last four meetings. Expected goals favor City at 1.56 to 1.08, suggesting they should create more but also hints at a low-scoring affair. The forecast leans City but only modestly, and with data quality at 0.37, missing factors like squad availability and current player form mean this prediction carries real uncertainty. A draw remains the single most likely outcome on the model's lean, with City's home advantage at Yankee Stadium doing enough to nudge them ahead.
The signals
- Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker
City have drawn three of their last five matches; Red Bulls have won one of five with two defeats.
- Venue, travel and rest
City play at home and benefit from standard home advantage pricing.
- Head to head (API-Football, last 4)
City won three of the last four meetings between these sides.
The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.
The math
3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.56 for New York City FC and 1.08 for New York Red Bulls. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 47 for New York City FC, 26 for New York Red Bulls and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 28 to 67.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model gives New York City FC a 47 percent chance. The probability split is New York City FC 47 percent, draw 27 percent, New York Red Bulls 26 percent.
- What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our predicted scoreline for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls is 1-1, the single most likely cell of the Poisson grid.
- When does New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls kick off?
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls kicks off Friday 18 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
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