Who is favourite for Argentina vs Cabo Verde?

Our model gives Argentina a 77 percent chance. The probability split is Argentina 77 percent, draw 17 percent, Cabo Verde 6 percent.

What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Cabo Verde?

Our pick for Argentina vs Cabo Verde is 2-0, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips Argentina to advance.

Who does the model expect to advance in Argentina vs Cabo Verde?

Argentina, with a 86 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.

What was the final result of Argentina vs Cabo Verde?

Final result: 3-2. We called 2-0. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Miami Stadium (neutral)

Argentina vs Cabo Verde prediction

Argentina vs Cabo Verde prediction: the reigning world champions against the smallest nation ever to reach the knockouts. The model gives Argentina 77 percent and calls a 2-0.

Last updated 28 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC

morrow.news3 Jul, 22:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32

Argentina vs Cabo Verde

Argentina 77%Draw 17%Cabo Verde 6%

Called 2-0Final 3-2Right call

Argentina 77%Draw 17%Cabo Verde 6%

77%Argentina win, band 68 to 85Pick 2-0

Kickoff Friday 3 July 2026, 22:00 UTC. Based on 8 signals.

Knockout tie, no draw. The model's pick to go through is Argentina, 86 percent to advance after extra time and penalties if it is level.

The take

Argentina against Cabo Verde is the romance tie of the round, the world champions against the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup knockout. Argentina hold an enormous edge through Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez, and a friendly Miami crowd, while Cabo Verde simply enjoy the moment. The model points overwhelmingly to Argentina.

The signals

Recent competitive form, friendlies weighted lightly
Argentina won Group J with a perfect record, Cabo Verde reached the last 32 in a stunning debut.
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, June 2026
Argentina are the world number one, Cabo Verde far down the order but fearless.
Squad market values (Transfermarkt, June 2026)
Argentina field one of the most valuable squads at the finals, Cabo Verde one of the smallest.
Player level by league and club
Argentina carry Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, Cabo Verde a spirited Europe based base.
Availability and injuries
Knockout lineups are not yet set, so availability is treated as incomplete.
Venue, travel and rest
A neutral venue in Miami where Argentina will enjoy strong support.
Head to head
No meaningful recent head to head, so the model leaves it out of the winner maths.
Stakes and motivation
Argentina chase back to back titles, Cabo Verde play with house money.

The referee appointment for this match had not been published when the forecast was built. Until it is confirmed, the official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

Eight signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 2.24 for Argentina and 0.49 for Cabo Verde. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 77 for Argentina, 17 for a draw and 6 for Cabo Verde, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality is 0.87, so the Argentina win band sits at 68 to 85.

What happened

3-2Right call · we picked 2-0

Argentina advanced after extra time.

Argentina 3 Cabo Verde 2 after extra time. Goals: L. Messi 29 for Argentina, D. Duarte 59 for Cape Verde Islands, L. Martinez 92 for Argentina, S. Lopes Cabral 103 for Cape Verde Islands, D. Borges 111 for Argentina own goal. Argentina advanced after extra time.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Argentina vs Cabo Verde?: Our model gives Argentina a 77 percent chance. The probability split is Argentina 77 percent, draw 17 percent, Cabo Verde 6 percent.
What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Cabo Verde?: Our pick for Argentina vs Cabo Verde is 2-0, the most likely scoreline with a winner. A knockout tie cannot end level, so the model tips Argentina to advance.
Who does the model expect to advance in Argentina vs Cabo Verde?: Argentina, with a 86 percent chance to go through, a win in 90 minutes plus half of the draw chance for extra time and penalties.
What was the final result of Argentina vs Cabo Verde?: Final result: 3-2. We called 2-0. A right call, the winner matched but not the exact scoreline.