The Open 2026 · Royal Birkdale · field forecast
The Open 2026 forecast
The 154th Open returns to Royal Birkdale, and the market calls it the most open of the majors. No player is better than a one in thirteen shot. Here is the field, ranked by win probability with the bookmaker margin removed.
The field
- Scottie Scheffler7.5%The market's clear favourite, and still only a one in thirteen shot.
- Rory McIlroy6.5%Second in the market, and a past Open champion.
- Tommy Fleetwood3.6%Southport born, on the links he grew up beside.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick3.6%Level with Fleetwood at the head of the chasing pack.
- Jon Rahm2.9%
- Xander Schauffele2.7%
- Justin Rose2.1%
- Collin Morikawa2.1%
- Christopher Gotterup2.1%
- Wyndham Clark2.1%
- Ludvig Aberg2.1%
- Cameron Young2.0%
- Tyrrell Hatton2.0%
- Robert MacIntyre2.0%
The read
Golf's majors are the hardest events to forecast, and an Open on a links course is the hardest of all. Wind, weather and a field of more than 150 flatten every edge, which is why even the world's best sit in single digits. Scottie Scheffler heads the market at 7.5 percent and Rory McIlroy at 6.5, and after them the probability drops into a long, level chasing pack.
Two of the shortest prices belong to players tied to this coast. Tommy Fleetwood grew up in Southport, minutes from Royal Birkdale, and Matthew Fitzpatrick is one of the most reliable ball strikers in the English game. The model adds no home boost, it simply reports the market's de-vigged probabilities, but the storylines write themselves.
These are win probabilities, not a tip on a winner. In a field this deep the single most likely outcome is that none of the favourites win at all: the combined chance of the entire top ten is under 40 percent. Read this as a map of the market, not a prediction.
How this is calculated
Each player's decimal win odds are taken from the head of the market, converted to an implied probability as one divided by the odds, then the whole field is normalised so the probabilities sum to 100 percent. That removes the bookmaker margin, which on this market ran to 64 percent of overround. Odds captured 12 July 2026. For entertainment, not advice.
Sources
- the-odds-api.com, outright winner market. Decimal win odds for the full field from Everygame and Betfair, captured 12 July 2026, margin removed by normalising the field to 100 percent.
- The Open, Royal Birkdale. The 154th Open Championship, 16 to 19 July 2026, Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, England.