NRL this round: who the market backs

The matches

1. Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos79.0%Penrith Panthers heavily favoured at home.
2. Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights60.0%Cronulla Sharks favoured at home.
3. Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs52.0%The coin toss of the round, Canberra a fraction ahead.
4. New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons81.0%The Warriors are the biggest favourite of the round.
5. Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers63.0%Canterbury Bulldogs favoured at home.
6. Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys58.0%Dolphins favoured at home.

The read

The market makes the New Zealand Warriors and Penrith Panthers the standout picks of the round, both above 79 percent at home, while Canberra against South Sydney is the true coin toss at roughly 52 to 48. Everything between is a clear but beatable favourite.

Every number here is the head-to-head market, de-vigged: each team's odds turned into an implied probability and the pair normalised so they sum to 100 percent. There is no model overlay on top, this is simply what the sharpest prices say, team by team.

A favourite at 79 percent still loses one week in five, and the NRL is one of the most even competitions in sport, so upsets are the rule as much as the exception. Read these as where the market leans, not as locks.

How this is calculated

For each match, the two head-to-head decimal prices are taken across several bookmakers, each converted to an implied probability as one divided by the odds, normalised so the pair sums to 100 percent to remove the margin, then averaged across the books. The figure shown is the favourite's win probability. Odds captured 12 July 2026. For entertainment, not advice.

Sources

• the-odds-api.com, NRL head to head market. Decimal match odds from Australian bookmakers including SportsBet, TAB, Ladbrokes and Betfair, captured 12 July 2026, margin removed per match.