New York City FC vs CF Montreal prediction

The take

The model gives NYCFC a 46 percent chance to win, but that confidence is modest. Montreal have won all four of their last meetings, a trend that cuts against the home side's usual edge. NYCFC are struggling, having lost two of their last five, while Montreal's form is worse still with four losses in five. The model predicts a 1-1 draw with expected goals of 1.53 for New York and 1.1 for Montreal, suggesting neither side will break through decisively. Home advantage matters here, but not enough to overcome Montreal's recent head-to-head dominance. This is a close call in a tight corner of the table.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  NYCFC have two losses in five games; Montreal have dropped four of five with a concerning 0-4 defeat to Charlotte.

• Venue, travel and rest

  NYCFC play at home, which the model factors into the forecast.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  Montreal have won all four of the teams' last four meetings, a significant pattern favouring the visitors.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.53 for New York City FC and 1.10 for CF Montreal. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 46 for New York City FC, 27 for CF Montreal and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the New York City FC win band is held at 27 to 66.