DC United vs New York City FC prediction

The take

New York City FC arrive as slight favorites at 48 percent to win, but this is far from a confident call. DC United have lost their last five games and sit on miserable form, while New York City are treading water with two wins in their last five. The model leans toward a draw at 27 percent, with DC United's home advantage and superior head-to-head record offering some cushion. Expected goals tell the story: New York City create more (1.56 to 1.08) but not by a margin that guarantees anything. The predicted score of 1-1 reflects genuine uncertainty. Data quality here is low, missing information on squad availability and team motivation late in the season, so treat all these numbers as rough guides rather than firm convictions.

The signals

• Recent results, morrow.news verified tracker

  DC United have lost five straight; New York City are 1-2-2 in five games.

• Venue, travel and rest

  Home advantage factored in at Audi Field.

• Head to head (API-Football, last 4)

  DC United won 2 of their last 4 meetings, with 2 draws.

The referee appointment is not sourced by the automated pipeline. The official enters the model only as neutral cards and variance, never as a factor in the winner.

The math

3 signals fold into a strength gap, which becomes the goals each side is expected to score, about 1.08 for DC United and 1.56 for New York City FC. Those lambdas run through a Poisson scoreline model with the Dixon Coles correction, producing the probability of every result. Summed up that is 25 for DC United, 48 for New York City FC and 27 for a draw, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Data quality sits at 0.37 because this page was built by the automated pipeline and 5 of the eight signals (fifa strength, squad value, player rating, availability, motivation) could not be sourced automatically, so the DC United win band is held at 11 to 44.